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04-19-2019, 10:38 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Classifying a Race
As most are aware, bet structure for a particular race is highly dependent on how strong the contenders are matched up with each other and the rest of the field. Per Mannetter's "Bet Smart, Win Big", the first step is to classify a race as to either Predictable, likely to be won by the favorite or another low odds (< 4-1) horse, or Open, likely to be won by a horse 4-1 or higher with a vulnerable favorite or horse going off 3-1 or below.
For those looking for a mechanical method to classify a race in this manner, he suggests using the morning line. Yes, I know it is seriously flawed and subject to the skill of the ML maker, but disciples of Sartin will remember he uses the ML in many of his filters. Basically, if the favorites' ML is 2-1 or below, classify the race as Predictable. If the favorites' ML is above 2-1, classify the race as Open. That's it. In Predictable races, you need to focus on horizontal and vertical type bets to find +EV, as the low odds horses will likely be win bet underlays due to rebate syndicates involvement. In Open races, you should be betting to win on contenders going off 4-1 or higher. If you have more than 2 bets like this you should probably pass since there is something going on with the race that you or your computer program don't understand. Also, in open races, you can combine your higher odds contenders with each other in vertical and horizontal exotics. Lastly, in OPEN races, you will NOT want to back up you win bets with place bets as Sartin recommended. Here is another area where the math provides a more optimal solution. Place (and show) bets on horses whose win odds are greater than 4-1 are likely to be underlays since they will probably be sharing the pool with low odds winners who will dilute the place and show prices. You are better off betting the top 2-3 public favorites in an exacta on top over the horses you are looking to back up to place rather than a place bet itself. That is the math of it. Richard |
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