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2016 Match4Cash Challenges Are You Up 4 It?

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Old 03-05-2016, 04:30 PM   #11
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Old 03-06-2016, 09:31 AM   #12
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Ted was the only taker of the short priced favourite.
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Old 03-06-2016, 09:39 AM   #13
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We are in a run of short prices here. I really tried to find a race with what I thought would have a price but to no avail. We were all aware of the 4 and he was dominant. It is difficult to land on races where the public is wrong. To at least beyond single figures wrong. Here are this years prices all hit by at least one player. And the average payoff.
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Old 03-06-2016, 09:48 AM   #14
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Here are the payoffs hit be at least one player in the 2015 Matchup Contest. 60 hits of 76 opportunities. So far this year we are below average in price and number of hits beyond single digits. The double digit prices accounted for about one third overall which is consistent with my own personal daily activity. So over time this years numbers should rise but we will have only 20 opportunities to do it as compared to the 76 of last year.

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Old 03-06-2016, 11:13 AM   #15
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Pook View Post
Ted was the only taker of the short priced favourite.
In a betting context, I would take bets like that all the time. A very well ranked, and likely favourite which will still cover my 2 horse wager if it wins (i.e. a hedge). Then a juicy longshot (in my own mind, at least ) which I would split Win/Place. Of course I want the longshot, but I don't want to lose 100% of my wager if I'm wrong.

Perhaps that strategy was not such a good idea in the context of this Contest.

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Old 03-06-2016, 04:22 PM   #16
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Good thoughts Ted
In the real world you can also bet 60/40
Or 70/30
Betting 50/50 is hard for us in this contest
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