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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-12-2018, 04:09 PM   #1
Jeebs
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DMR Race 2 - 8/12/2018

Race 2 - 1m Dirt, Claiming $20,000, 3up

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Old 08-12-2018, 04:26 PM   #2
Jeebs
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Horses 1-2-3 and analysis

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Last line. Best perceptor of the last 3 starts is comparable to today's surface and distance. Goes first off the claim today, but current form is questionable. It's 162.3 total energy as well as its TPR appears on the weak side.

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Last line. Line 2 is the best of last 3, but a poly race. I tend to view Dirt and Poly the same way I view Dirt and Turf: not comparable due to the nature of the individual surfaces. However, this is a common problem in California, especially with many horses shipping from the North. This horse admittedly gave me a headache. I went with Line 1, as it was over today's track and is today's distance. Looks like a NTL early.

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Line 2. The last line is the best of three, but is a turf race. Line 2 is comparable. Weak runner off its total energy and TPR, plus sketchy recent form don't inspire much in this matchup.
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Old 08-12-2018, 04:45 PM   #3
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Horses 4-5-6-7 and analysis

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Line 2. Last line is a poly line. Line 2 rates best of last 3. 1st race in 66 days starts new form cycle, and should be supported as the favorite.

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Line 10. The $64,000 question is: Why? The last line and Line 2 are both turf lines, and Line 3 is over a sloppy strip. What does one do when there are no comparable lines to rate? I was reluctant to use the sloppy race, so looked at the perceptor totals over dirt. Perhaps I take what I have and use the sloppy race, but Line 10 rates closest to the best perceptor from the turf. 6-1 ML. IMO, an unknown factor.

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Line 2. NTL speed, and Line 2 is best of last 3. Based on EPR, it has not shown ability to run a 93-94 EPR, which would be needed to chase the #2. TPR and total energy also behind others.

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Last line. Only recent and decent comparable line to today's surface/distance structure.
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Old 08-12-2018, 04:53 PM   #4
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Blbl

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Using TPR, 1-3-6 were weak, so they get hidden from the primary group. This leaves us in order of BL tier, 5-4-7-2. If #5 gets bet down, no play. I had better get value by digging to Line 10 for a line. The remaining primary contenders are the top 3 ML, so there's no value in betting the better price of those contenders if I'm not getting value on #5.
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Old 08-12-2018, 06:32 PM   #5
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Word's out on #5. At 7/2, PASS.
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Old 08-12-2018, 06:41 PM   #6
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7 wins it

#7 wins as the 3rd tier runner. #4 (2nd tier) gets the place. #5 never fired.

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Old 08-12-2018, 06:53 PM   #7
Bill V.
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Nice

Nice workup Tim

I just walked in the door and i missed your post

This is what I come up with

The 5 must have just liked the sloppy track at LS, not the hard Del Mar dirt

4 and 7 are right there

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Old 08-12-2018, 08:17 PM   #8
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Thanks for sharing, Bill. That #5 was tough to get a read on. I almost considered selecting the Sloppy line and hiding it as a Secondary, since Line 10 was stale. Moot point anyway, as I didn't get a needed price on #5 and passed the race anyway.
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Old 08-12-2018, 10:19 PM   #9
For The Lead
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My observation is that for the most part people are afraid to lose a race because they left the winner out. So what if you did? Have you never lost a race before?
Leaving horses in that don’t belong probably cause more lost races than those lost because you left the winner out. Leaving horses in that don’t belong and picking lines for those horses causes those horses to get rankings that distort all of your rankings. Their rankings cause you to think they are viable contenders when really they are not.

Here’s my look at this race.
I will be using ENERGY!

No horses have a ML of 20/1 or higher.
All horses have a race in the last 90 days.
All horses remain in at this point.
Now line selection.

#1 – NO LINE. Last line is a “0” race. Line 2 back is a turf race. These are thee only two races in the last 90 days.
#2 – Last line. It is a (+) race at same track and on same surface.
#3 – NO LINE. Last line is a “0” race on the turf. Lines 2 & 3 are “0” races. These are the only lines in the last 90 days.
#4 – NO LINE. Last line is a “0” race. It is the horses only race in the last 90 days.
#5 – NO LINE. Horse only has 2 race in the last 90 days, both are on turf.
#6 – Last line. It is a (+) race at same track and on same surface. If someone used line 2 because the last line was at a higher class I wouldn’t argue with them, but with early horses I am just interested in how they match up against other early horses. Not how they finish, but how they match up early.
#7 - Last line. This is straight forward. It is a “+” race at same track and on same surface.

With only 3 contenders and most ENERGY indicators pointing to the #7 horse it would be hard to miss this winner.
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Old 08-12-2018, 11:56 PM   #10
Neil S.
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I had the same 3 contenders but opted for an odds play and wound up a good third with #6 at big odds. I'm still trying to find some balance between potential value plays that can be bet as a single wager and not wanting to make two horse bets that often as I don't tend to get a good ROI if one of the horses is below 4-1

I came right back with Yuvetsi at 9-1 in the next race which had only two contenders for a score that guaranteed a profit for the day.

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