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Old 04-07-2016, 01:50 AM   #1
Latekick
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Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 389
The most important thing in my handicapping

Being 20 years old, one would imagine i have a pretty busy schedule, which i do, however over 8 years of sickening dedication to this game and coming up on 4 years of intense study of the Sartin method and developing my own way of using RDSS, i have learned how to manage my time and still get in the needed hours every day to stay sharp, and prepare myself for my next score. I hope this post does not get to long, but if it does, i feel as though it will be worth the read for those that take the time to read it. I feel as though what i am about to say is the most important aspect of my handicapping, and also take you through how this has payed off for me just a few days into April. Ive hit 2 pick 4's and one pick 5 in these few days of April, and i feel as though I'm on the verge of a big month. Hard work pays off fellas, if you dedicate your time to learning yourself and constantly and consistently working on your game, good things happen.

Let me start here,
What i believe to be the most important part of my handicapping and what has helped me to become so successful this past year, but mainly the last 6 months, has been a strict and consistent REVIEW of my selections and my top 4 contenders in each race. I am not telling a lie when i say that at least 80% of the hours i spend dedicated to my handicapping, is done reviewing past races. Before i sit down to do a card, i will thoroughly go through any card i have done in the past 3 days. This gets my mind ready to start the new card and helps me to pinpoint any mistakes i may have made. Every horse that goes into my top 4 is there for a reason. I have spend countless hours reviewing and analyzing myself, which has helped me to literally get the winner in my top 3 in almost every race i play. When the winner isn't in my top 3, its in my top 4-5, and after reviewing myself and what works for me i have found a way to pinpoint when they will be lower and when i need to dig. As i said this month is off to a great start. Ill start with my first hit which was the pick 5 at Santa Anita.

Let me add quickly, all of these cards, screenshots, and BLBL screens ARE ORIGINAL AND HAVE NOT BEEN touched, they are original. I think it is important to do this, so for review you can see what you had and be honest with yourself. After seeing what you did wrong, you should go back and re-handicapp the whole race line by line and figure out whatever it is you need to do to get that winner, then write down what you did. After a while ( almost 7 months for me, but probably not as long for some others) you will master yourself and see exactly what it is you do wrong, and also right. Now you understand yourself and can play confidently. So, as i said all of these readouts are original.
Let me also add, i am not a big pick 4 pick 5 player. I only bet about 5 a month, and are usually in the range of $12 to $32. IM ON A BUDGET ALRIGHT! Because of this i be sure to pick my spots.
Ive cashed on my first two pick 4s and only pick 5 so far this month and i want to show you how effective review is, and also how i review myself. Now, these payouts are not astronomical by any means, but they are consistent and are the bread and butter pick 4s and 5s that are hittable consistently which is what i like.
So here goes.

April 1st. New month, new spreadsheets, new records, Same passion, same approach.
Santa Anita pick 5 play:
1,5
1,7
4
1,3
4,5,6
$12

I have developed my own way of interpreting every race. I see it as elimination handicapping. Heres how the sequence went.
I will post each race separately. Heres race 1:

#1: The way i saw it and have it written down in my notes ( this is all coming from my notes by the way) is i saw a big maiden win, followed by a misplaced horse in a Starter race. FOR ME, remember this is my own handicapping and line selection, i have fund that FOR ME if i am using a line that 2 back or 3 back that is beneath todays class level, the horse MUST RUN against equal or better class as todays race. This horse fits, i used the line two back, which was a maiden line but it was a good win that the horse pulled away and gained in the stretch, positive for me. Obviously, ranked #1 on BLBL and what i just mentioned above, he goes on my ticket.

#5: Here is a race that i learned something, learn something from every race id advise. STICK WITH MY GUT AND RECORDS. I chose this horse basically because i was so against the ML Fav who was the #6. I wanted no part of the #6 and i wanted to make sure i had every logical horse that could beat him, which came down to only two. This horse scared me, and i put him on here to cover myself, i was scared. In my notes i have, "I don't have to use this horse but Im scared right now so i will". What i just preached in the last horse, about not using a horse taking steps up in class unless faced equal or better in subsequent starts, or has impressive win at lower class. I went against that here, because i was scared. The 5 was coming off of a 2nd place effort in a 12,500 NW2L race, but had made up good ground and was ranked 2nd in BLBL, so i was scared and i used him.

The #6 was ranked 3rd but as i said i was very against him because he was obviously a horse going downhill, and going down fast. After eliminating him that left me with the #4, who was still a Maiden. No thanks. Toss. Selections #1 and #5.
Results at the bottom


On to the next leg, race 2.
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Old 04-07-2016, 02:00 AM   #2
Latekick
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Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 389
#4:
Was at the top of the rankings. However, he was coming off of a 181 day layoff first of all, which isn't the reason i eliminated him, but had something to do with it. The reason i eliminated this horse was because the line i used was a line where he was loose on the lead and had everything his own way, something i a, EXTREMELY against. Eliminated. Now i have the #1 and #7 to look at. If i can elimanate one of those then i will use my 4th ranked horse, if i can't eliminate, then these are my two.
#1: A horse that just got to the US, had two starts with two 6th place finishes against better competition. I usually would not use a horse with back to back 6th place finishes, but this horse made a great move mid race, and was only a lengthy back at the stretch call against better. Cant eliminate here. He stays.

#7: Almost identical to the #1 except has been in U.S. Finished 4th in last two starts against better and had a great mid move in the line i used, ( BY the way i only analyze the lines i select). 4th against better only beaten 4 lengths, keeper. Cant eliminate. So these are my two.

Here are the results
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Old 04-07-2016, 02:14 AM   #3
Latekick
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Race 3:
Heres a race that took some digging, but paid off and luckily i had the guts to single a 6/1 horse.
#6: Was the horse on top but was a clear and immediate no brainer elimination for me. Ha not hit the board in last 3 starts, had a 400 day layoff before last two starts, and was going downhill. The only reason i had a line for this horse is because he had made a move in his last race, so i decided to give him a chance but knew all along he would be an elimination if were anywhere near the top.

That leaves me with #2, #4, #3

#2: Heres another good example of what i explained in race 1. This horse was coming off of a win against less competition, but was a win in a slow race where all of the other horses seemed to be crawling. He was not coming off of an impressive win, and this line was also not 2 or 3 back so he had not faced any better competition. He was an elimination.

That leaves me with #4, and maybe a rare use of the 4th slot horse #3.

#4: This was my single and heres why. After eliminating BOTH top two horses i knew that whatever this 3rd ranked horse had, would be amplified because of the weakness and elimination of the two horses on top. THIS PLAY HAS revealed itself in my handicapping to be a VERY high percentage and profitable play. When both of my top two are eliminated and my 3rd is a keeper, it has a very good chance. This horse was coming off of a good 2nd place finish off of its last race at this class level, and i knew that just by that simple positive, this horse would have a great advantage because of the weakness of my top two. I singled her, and at almost 6/1 she did what i needed her to do.
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Old 04-07-2016, 02:19 AM   #4
Latekick
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Join Date: Jun 2013
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Race 4:
#1: This race will be very short and quick, not much to say here, i just picked the lines and let RDSS work. This horse was coming off of a very positive win and improved in the stretch, was obviously a keeper at 1st ranked.

#3: I hesitated on this horse, but was also coming off of a great win where improved almost 5 lengths in the stretch. Hesitate because it was a maiden win, but i knew that this horse was legitimate, keeper as 2nd ranked. SO i have my two horses, why go any further? Top two were legitimate.
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Old 04-07-2016, 02:28 AM   #5
Latekick
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Race 5:
This race got a little more tricky. I ended up using 3 horses.
#4: Top ranked horse at 12/1 coming off of a 3rd place finish against STR ALW horses. Obviously was a keeper, especially at 12/1 in a pick 5. Was moving from the dirt to the downhill, but at 12/1 it was worth the risk for the reward. Keepe.

#5: Heres a horse i eliminated initially and in my notes i have, "Don't bet in race but dont come this far into pick 5 to get beat by 2nd ranked horse".
This horse had shown good speed going long on the dirt, and now was cutting back to a downhill turf course. The early speed this horse had would be diminished and if it wanted to be anywhere near early it would have to use too much energy to stay close. Segments screen confirmed this for me. All this being said, i kept this horse on my ticket, just to save myself some heartbreak if it were to win in the last leg.

#6: A really cool 7 year old horse. I used the line two back. Its last line was a clear toss and although it had won the race i used at THIS SAME level and was running for the same claiming price it had won for, the horse is just an old hard knocker who is right where he needs to be, so why try to face anything different. Ranked 3rd and behind a 2nd ranked horse who i wanted to eliminate, this horse was a clear keeper.
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Old 04-07-2016, 02:33 AM   #6
Latekick
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As you can see it wasn't anything insane that happened in the sequence. These types can be hit often once you learn yourself as a handicapper and SELECT lines that will constantly get your horses in the top 3. I have mastered my way of line selection THROUGH HARD work and repetition. There is no easy way, I've spent countless hours reviewing my lines, and this is why it pays off.
It paid $1,112.50
Again, not huge, but when you invest $12, that is nothing to be upset about. I will take that any day of the week. It was a great way to start off my month, and 1k for a 20 year old college student seems like a million.

Ill see how this thread goes, and if getting a good response to it i will go on to post my two pick 4s i have also hit this month so far.

I just hope the one thing you take away from all of this, is to REVIEW yourself an your line selection and decision making. After a while, your own strategy will emerge after analyzing yourself so closley.
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Old 04-07-2016, 09:41 AM   #7
The Pook
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Late,

Thanks for the interesting read. Glad to see things are coming together for you. I remember last year when you were imploding from frustration. It looks like your sabbatical has paid off.
Keep in mind that it won't always be this easy. There will be periods where you can do nothing right. I have learned that it is how you deal with those, in balance with periods like this, that determines your overall success. To have more of these good sessions than the bad ones is what you want and it looks like you may have turned the corner.

Pook
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Old 04-07-2016, 10:17 AM   #8
Latekick
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Pook, you're right and your memory is correct! The reason i took the 6-7 month break from reading this site and trying to overload myself was in order to relax and just focus on me and instead of trying to gather so much more new information, i decided i wanted to use what i had learned and put it to use in order to be effective. Im thankful i got so frustrated with myself, if i wouldn't have, i may have never realized how to fix myself.

You are also correct in that it won't always be this easy. Trust me when i say i have learned this the hard way. I dont mean for the post to be read as me saying, "This is easy". I intend it to be read as hard work will pay off and that if you stay consistent, then days like these are EASIER to come by then if you are constantly frustrated or changing up your line selection every day or every race.
I have had periods where i have almost lost a whole bankroll, however, i made a deal with myself that no matter what the case was, whether a losing streak or a winning streak, i would continue to review and study myself just as intensely of i had won 8 in a row or lost 20 in a row. Nothing about this is easy, and i hope no one reads it that way. The key is to remain stoic, and dont let your failures determine how much you will succeed. Hope that clears some things up.
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Old 04-07-2016, 10:28 AM   #9
Lt1
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Grant I'm very happy to see that you are doing so well. It's obvious that your hard work has begun to pay off. Keep it going.
Tim
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Old 04-07-2016, 10:48 AM   #10
Bill V.
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good work

I am very happy for you, You have worked hard, I bet you feel so good about yourself, cause YOU made the calls,
Good Skill going forward
Bill
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