Handicap Races

[Bill V.]

Race 10 from FG was a contest race selection
The winner was horse 5 and the selector lost


Here is my look at the race
All comments appreciated as I want to win

my notes
Thoughts on Race 10
How could the 5 win ?

The race is a Starter Handicap LA state breds 3year olds and up
which have started for a claiming price of 12,500 or less in 2012
This is a handicap race that means the better the horse the more
weight it is given, Who carried the most pounds?

From the result chart horse 1 and 4 were scratched

H8 121 Pounds
H7 120 pounds
H5 119 pounds
H2 118 pounds
H9 117 pounds
H10 116 pounds
H6 116 pounds
H1A 115 pounds
H3 114 pounds

lets looks at the lifetime records
H1A 4-14
H2 7-29
H3 5-38
H4 scr
H5 9- 48
H6 2-7
H7 7-28
H8 5 -14
H9 4-23
H10 12-71

H1A EP no recent races less than 90 days No line
H2 EP last line wins at OC17.5
H3 Ugly form No line 30/1 ML
H4 scratch
H5 Sprinter Early/E/P The 12500 claimer does not show in PP's
but it ran a plus race in a 10000 Starter race at CD
3rd race after layoff. It Shows another plus route at CD
line 7
H6 Another Early sprinter but this one only has a maiden claiming
win and a statebred Claimer10000 30/1 ML no line
H7 Early Line 1 win line in an open 7500 claimer
H8 Early6 line 2 SO
H9 Sp2 No recent dirt route form No line
H10 No excuse last line This is a Sus sprinter
Fast sprinters win route races

lots of issues here. I only have lines for 3 horse
all which are early energy
If the 5 breaks ahead of them who will close ?
PP's

[Bill V.]

Here are the PP's and Entries and conditions

[Bill V.]

Winner

[Bill V.]

The rest and result chart

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Race 10 from FG was a contest race selection
The winner was horse 5 and the selector lost

Here is my look at the race
All comments appreciated as I want to win

my notes
Thoughts on Race 10
How could the 5 win ?

The race is a Starter Handicap LA state breds 3year olds and up
which have started for a claiming price of 12,500 or less in 2012
This is a handicap race that means the better the horse the more
weight it is given. Who carried the most pounds?

From the result chart horse 1 and 4 were scratched

H8 121 Pounds
H7 120 pounds
H5 119 pounds
H2 118 pounds
H9 117 pounds
H10 116 pounds
H6 116 pounds
H1A 115 pounds
H3 114 pounds

Well Bill, I think you committed heresy by using "weight" in conjunction with the methodology, so I'm going to jump right in WITH YOU!!!

When it comes to "HANDICAP" races, whether it is the Santa Anita HANDICAP or the lowliest Starter HANDICAP in the country (and/or Canada), the racing secretary "assigns" the weight that each horse is to carry. Naturally, the best horses are assigned the most weight, as you suggested.
Keeping in mind that nothing is horse racing is 100%, the TOP 3 HIGH WEIGHTS win a large majority of handicap races, so when one encounters a handicap race, it is in their best interest to give those top 3 high weights a VERY CLOSE LOOK.

[Midland333]

I know this race and couldnt play it because the #5 scared me. If you go back to his good route it puts him in the game especially after his two last sprints--also his record at this distance---he looked ready for this race. I couldnt bet him but I sure would use him in the exotics.
If you use #8 last race in the slop he was a key player also---personally I dont use a horses line of a bad surface.
The race was a pass but if pressed both the #5 and #8 would be in the box. Plus the weights will tell you something.

[lone speed]

I did not play this race...nor do I know if Rdss or any programs would have got this...But I am sure it would have if we look at the form cycle and the way this trainer brought this horse up to today's race....

I have attached his Rdss screen with some highlights



Like Midland commented, if you go back to the last route race....it wouldn't be a stretch as his most recent races were mostly all sprint races....but for someone who always chooses from best of the last three....this may stop one from going too far back...but this route race is his last route race and today's race is a route at 8.3 distance..

I want to look at primary screen where the running styles are highlighted in the last two recent lines...look at the change in running style and energy exerted.....

In the last race or 1st paceline, this horse runs early....

In the second paceline, this horse runs from off the pace......

Now, whether you want to subscribe to this method of evaluating races or not..it is a different point of view...But if I was a trainer of horses or track athlete (Hey, wasn't Jim Bradshaw a track coach???)....I would train a horse/athlete to work on two parts of a race before my main objective race...

The EARLY PACE and the LATE PACE......

I would train for the early fast pace in one race and in another race,I would work on the late pace or closing kick of a race.....

Then in the objective race...all of the training on early pace and late pace are put into use in the objective race.

I do remember in the match up manual that Jim Bradshaw would paste the closing fractions of one paceline to the early fractions of another paceline.....

I had one acquaintance who called this type of horse, the PAIR HORSE....the horse pairs or runs two similar effort races or "number" races, then in the objective race, this horse will move up about 4-5 lengths... I will not go into details here, but the ideas came from Thorograph....Usually, you find these type of horses from developing horses, especially three year olds and from their layoffs from their two year old season into the beginning of their three year season....

We can focus on the changes in energy exertions in the last two races and go back to its previous effort in the route race...This is not an exact science, but it gives us an another perspective on how this trainer brought the #5 horse up to today's race...JMHO...