Go to the window on these...

[Mr.Pagine]

I have been testing this little baby for quite sometime, and it has worked every single time it appears. The horse must be 1 or 2 in VDC, and must lead the way on the Adjusted screen at every call.

The odds are not the best....but they are winning!!

[pilot]

Thanks for posting, Mr Pagine.

Wayne

[Ted Craven]

Interesting idea Jon. Just for clarity, what you're really saying is: a horse which ranks 1 or 2 on VDC and set or ran against the fastest 1st Call, 2nd Call and Final Times (i.e. showing as all RED or ranked #1). NOT that the horse necessarily set those time or 'lead the way' - just that it at least ran against them.

In your example from the Adjusted screen, the #8 horse was only 2nd at the 1st call (GREEN shading = 2nd) and then worse than 4th at all other calls (i.e. no colour, no bolding = not 1st - 4th). So by dint of that fast pace that the #8 ran against, it got a #1 VDC rank.



I think this is what you are saying you observe as winning every time you see it. Right?

Thanks for sharing this observation!

Ted

[Mr.Pagine]

What I meant was what you had clarified for me.....just that it at least ran against them.

I have come across this once or twice a card...... and Kaboom!!

[CaptDon100]

Look at the race on May 9th Best Available ran against.
2nd at 1/4 mile but 11 lengths off the lead.
The Pace Horse, World Record broke fast off the start, ran 22.45, was 7 lengths at F1 and was 10 1/2 at 1/2 mile marker.
World Record sprinted to a long early lead, was caught late turn and was through.
Best Available settled well back early, was hustled from mid pack on turn, chased 5 wide on to the stretch and finished all out.
That's why the red lines on the PP, show a good move.
The Place horse Brite Sabbath ran off the pace too.
Looks to me like the Pace was to much for the front runners and the
race was won from OTP.

On the May 25th race Best Available stayed just off the lead and stayed with in
a head and 1 length off the lead at all calls. the 2nd call was 24.97 a much slower pace, a pace he can handle.
Best Available: forced the pace, bid 3 wide on early turn, dueled was headed at top of the stretch re bid mid stretch and prevailed under drive.
Looks to me that this was a good race for Best Available, slower pace, showed good move last race (red line) under PP's.
The Betters liked it too, went off as a 2-1 Favorite, was 5-1 M/L
Don

[Ted Craven]

You make some good clarifications Don. It is important that such a candidate horse, with Top ranked VDC and ran against a faster pace of race than any others today - have been competitive against that fast pace - just like you point out for our #8 horse above.

If a horse has performed in a dull or unresponsive fashion in a selected paceline - only against a very fast pace - this is NO credit to that horse and a very effective money-waster. It was in effect, 'sucked along' behind a fast pace it could not respond to or even lost ground to. Good chance it will be similarly uncompetitive against even a slower pace today.

In general, it is an excellent strategy to notice good rankings of the horse itself (e.g. everything on the BL Summary screen) combined with the Pace of Race rankings from the PoR Velocity screen and/or the Adjusted screen. After all, the winner of a race is the horse who either sets the lead or best overcomes the pace set by other leaders (or more colourfully put, preferably using an Okie accent: 'one horse goes out for the lead and the others chase him. If they catch him, he loses; if they don't he wins ...')

Also to be clear - the observation of those Pace of Race rank #1s at the 3 call points comes AFTER ELIMINATING from the Win Contender group those horses who you judge cannot win today. Without doing this, other horses' pace of races (against which they were ineffective, or they are otherwise not in shape to win today) dilute the triple #1s and you don't see the same clear readout.

Perhaps a useful corollary to Mr Pagine's observation is - beware the 'suck-along' horse!

.

[Appy]

'one horse goes out for the lead and the others chase him. If they catch him, he loses; if they don't he wins ...'

Seems most often simple is best.
Over-thinking things is like throwing junk on your front steps.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by Appy

Seems most often simple is best.

Yep, except when it's not. 'Simply' (or simplistically) bet the well ranked public favourite to Place or Show (or Win) and cash a lot of bets, have a lot of fun (and only lose a little money).

Ted