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RDSS Info, Reference How to obtain RDSS2, get started and learn to use it. (Video and other tutorials)

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Old 08-03-2015, 12:53 PM   #1
dandy68
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Smile more questions

can the difference between original and adjusted PLs be explained and is one or the other preferable? is vertical or horizontal wagering better suited with RDSS2 (I like pick 3's and fours)?
is it best to pass a race when none of the top 3 or 4 are not a double digit odds at post time?
can someone tell me how to export the win/place horses of a past race to excel? this would save much time in keeping track of what are the recurring factors for the first two finishers.

thanks to all who gave me insight on my first thread!
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Old 08-03-2015, 02:47 PM   #2
Mitch44
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Adjusted pace lines account for the speed of the track that day as it can be effected by the weather daily. And it doesn't have to be rain either as the summer heat can dry out a track and slow it down especially if they don't water as much to save some money. Also there are track to track adjustments as some tracks are always fast such as SA, MTH. etc. while others are much slower such as Calder. To answer your question the "Doc" didn't believe in a lot of adjustments. I believe in the adjustments as the game has changed today compared to many years back with all kind of crazy run-up distances and lack of watering to save money. ie. GSP this year to save money watered infrequently and ran much slower times than in previous years, which BTY favors late horses. I don't play a lot of California tracks so I'm unaware of what their doing there with the drought. Bottom line don't worry about all this as its incorporated in RDSS best readouts such as BL/BL.
I believe if the unadjusted ratings are used your leaving a lot of money to others. I'm sure someone will disagree with me on this. To them good luck with that. Also in many races you'll get the same top contenders either way. Yes read that last line again. Why? Because all the lines chosen are from the same track and recent etc. My preference is to use the adjusted ratings because of shippers and many other reasons.

The key here for everyone is to use a consistent approach and choose your preference (adjusted or unadjusted) and don't be switching back and forth or your wallet will suffer.

To your other question; its much easier to pick winners than place horses or in other words to play DD, pick 3's etc that an exacta. The matchup in races causes horses to get the place or show position which really shouldn't but true contenders get burned out by the matchup and stop on a dime leaving horses in the field to get finish positions they shouldn't.

With low odds strong contenders I look to exacta payoffs for overlays as they make many mistakes are made there by the public. But many pass these races. One never loses money on a passed race.

I can't answer you excel question as I don't export it.
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 08-03-2015 at 02:51 PM.
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Old 08-04-2015, 12:21 AM   #3
Mark
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I personally don't use any of the program adjustments. That is just my choice. however, I do look at them after the races just to see how they perform. Ted applies 40% of the DTV to the 1st call, 60% to the 2nd call and 100% to the final time and then you have to configure the program the way you want it. The recommendation is 50% DTV and ITV, default mode. Spread is -15 to +15.
Whatever you use, I believe that you will have greater success using the Energy screen, TPR screen and BL/BL. The compounding of the fractional velocities somewhat evens things out and in my view makes them more effective.
To export Ted has written a bunch of tutorials that explain it fully. You can find them using the Google Search by typing some like "Exporting win data" or some such thing.
I win bet and once in a while will bet exactas if I really understand the race. Until you become profitable betting to win, the risks associated with serial bets can mean long run outs. Be careful
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Old 08-05-2015, 09:19 AM   #4
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dandy68 View Post
can the difference between original and adjusted PLs be explained and is one or the other preferable? is vertical or horizontal wagering better suited with RDSS2 (I like pick 3's and fours)?
is it best to pass a race when none of the top 3 or 4 are not a double digit odds at post time?
can someone tell me how to export the win/place horses of a past race to excel? this would save much time in keeping track of what are the recurring factors for the first two finishers.

thanks to all who gave me insight on my first thread!
Dandy,

Original lines are useful to show what actually happened, along with Matchup related visuals: raw times, running positions, gains in position and in lengths behind leader, calibre of competition faced (race classification), public opinion (odds); a visual picture of general Running Style (e.g. Early, Fighter Early, Early Presser, and the Other Than Early 'OTE' styles: Presser, Sustained); also, using the Projected Pace tool on raw running times: how horses will face the likely Early Pace (set by one of the EARLY horses), which Earlies are too slow and which OTEs close positionally closest to the fastest pace; 'comfort zone' of horses (i.e. can a horse pass a certain number of horses after the 1st call or does it 'pout' if it finds itself too far back).

I always have one of my 2 PP Panels for each horse showing the Original data. This is critical to me for determining if a horse is a Contender to Win today; or perhaps not to Win but perhaps finish in the money. Notice the colour coding. RED = 1, GREEN = 2, YELLOW = 3. No colour (especially at the later stages of a race = no hope (unless an excuse such as too fast pace, wrong surface or distance, trouble). Only real Contenders have believable Adjusted values on all the rest of the screens, otherwise they may have earned the good 'numbers' from merely having faced fast pace-of race scenarios and having been 'sucked along' in mediocre fashion.

Adjusted values are found on ALL the rest of the screens: all distances equalized to today, all daily and inter track variants and running times adjusted to a hypothetical norm (and NOT to today's track and distance!) By making all lines for all horses comparable to each other (such as is possible, and the more divergent from today's track, surface and distance group sprint/route - the more 'noise' there will be in those adjustments) - the differences between pace and final times for all runners, the deceleration and energy distribution differentials, and the gaps between and ranks of horses when compared to each other - all give authenticity to the Line Score (Bottom Line/Betting Line) and comparisons between horses, from which we are trying to make betting decisions.

So - use BOTH Original data (to understand the Matchup and Contender status) AND Adjusted data (ALL the other screens) to make your final determination about who can Win and who can finish in the money.


Though you did not ask - I consider the tote board module in RDSS a critical tool to inject 'reality' into betting decisions (click the Supertote button on the RDSS Desktop and start from there). The top 4 Win odds ranks win a majority of races. The Tote Xray 'TX' top 3 ranks identify horses whose money across the WPS pools is skewed towards Win, compared to the other runners and compared to the overall pool totals. Even though the top ranks often tend to be unbettable low odds horses, 2nd-4th ranks are often 3-1 ... 10-1 and when they have good TX confirmation are good sources of longer prices, if not in the Win pools then in the Place pools. Highly ranked horses on the BL/BL with non-top 4 Win Odds ranks and no TX confirmation more often than not end up being exactly what the odds say: not good bets. The useful corollary to this is: high ranked horses with 4th+ odds ranks BUT still Top 3 ranked TX insight ARE often good bets (either to Win, or to Place and Show).


You like horizontal bets - great! It is often easier to determine who can Win (and who cannot Win) than to determine who can Place or finish in the money (for vertical bets, though please investigate Methodology tools for identifying the 'counter-energy' horses in a race). The drawback (for me) of horizontal bets is that often the series is confounded by weird or practically unbettable races which you would not bet alone (2YOs, FTS, no-hope Maidens, new distances or surfaces, etc). But that's where you 'spread' or take a stab for the great prices. If you find such a race at the beginning of a horizontal bet, you can also use the info from the above noted tote analysis to get some nice insight. At Saratoga I have cashed some nice Win and Place tickets on FTS or 2TS based on tote action. Though I rarely currently play horizontals, I think rolling Daily Doubles are a great idea; also mild progression Win or Exacta parlays (for example, if you bet multiple horses per race and have a high hit rate). For myself, I work ALL straight pools to take money where it can be found (including Place and Show - for example a 1-2-6 unit progressive WPS wager); also Exacta and sometimes Trifecta. My longer term goals are to take money from EVERY pool offered, including all horizontals, but that takes more preparation, organization and tote board assistance than I currently have time for.

Re exporting data for decision modeling of Winners and Place horses: a good place to start is always the RDSS FAQ section. Followed by the Google Site Search tool, as Mark has mentioned. For example, here is the post in the FAQs discussion Decision Modeling and exporting data to Excel: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...23&postcount=7

All the best!

Ted
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Old 08-06-2015, 07:14 AM   #5
dandy68
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export to excel

the Richie video on exporting win data was great, THANKS! now should I be using data from all winners from a track to build win models for distance/surface even though some winners have low odds? how does someone who uses the export data best sort through all the factors to find the common factors to be on the outlook for, when a wagering decision is to be made?
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Old 08-06-2015, 02:43 PM   #6
dandy68
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good info ted; on the TX insight i am using % of win pool or the numbers to the side, like 0.0, 1.8, etc., to find which horse has more bets skewed to the win?
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Old 08-06-2015, 05:45 PM   #7
Ted Craven
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good info ted; on the TX insight i am using % of win pool or the numbers to the side, like 0.0, 1.8, etc., to find which horse has more bets skewed to the win?
The 'Tote Xray' readout is the one with the caption on the column (of various screens) which says ... Tote Xray, or Tx! In this column you will find numbers starting at 0.0 and ranging upwards from there. These numbers simply mean: % deviation from BEST - a format we use on a variety of different readouts throughout RDSS - the 'magic number' itself is immaterial and different numbers are on all different kinds of scales: the important thing is 1) RANK and 2) GAP between ranks). Thus, 0.0% means that Tx number (the number is not shown) is the BEST and ranked #1 and coloured RED. All other numbers are shown as a % deviation from best: thus a number of 1.5 in GREEN is ranked 2nd and means 1.5% worse than the best number, which is 0.0%. Often (and not just with Tx), 2 ranks will be very close, e.g. 0.0 and 0.1 and this is not a very big GAP = they are almost the same value and impact, even though they are 'technically' ranked #1 and #2.

So - Tx ranked #1 means: a formula involving relationships between W-P-S pools, Win Odds and pool totals (formula not public) where, compared to the other horses' WPS pool money, relatively more money is weighted towards the Win Pool - i.e. a better opinion about this horse by 'somebody' or by aggregate wisdom. With Tote Xray, we are looking for 'hidden' info not necessarily reflected in the Win Odds themselves (hence the 'Xray' idea). When TX ranks agree with Win Odds ranks, there is no extra information. When Tx disagrees with Win Odds, for example the horse is 8-1 and rank #4 Win Odds, but Tx rank #1 or Tx rank #2 with a low % gap - then that is EXTRA information. Someone (i.e. NOT the general public), thinks well of the horses chances (rightly or wrongly) and has bet more money in the Win Pool than the 'normal' distribution of WPS for that horse, AND the normal distribution of the pool totals. Even though other horses have more money bet on them, i.e. the other horses have better Win Odds.

The % of Win Pool numbers next to the Win Pool $$$ are just a convenient reminder of what percent of the total pool is bet on that horse (and Odds are simply a convenient and historical way of expressing percentages; e.g. a horse has 33.33% of the Win Pool money is the same as 2-1 odds = 100 / 33.33 - 1 = 2-1 odds).

So - use the Tx column RANKS (and sometimes GAPS between ranks) and get some confirmation of your well ranked BL/BL horse going off at somewhat longer odds if it is none-the-less well-ranked in Tx. Do this as close to post (aka bet-time) as possible, and distrust longshots with little money bet on them with oddly skewed TX numbers. Tx info on horses in the Top 4-ish Win Odds ranks, close to post are most reliable. (I know that money flows into the pools after you can place a bet, and the ranks and gaps change; but the Tx ranks don't change 'wildly' - like from rank #1 to Rank #4 - and anecdotally, can be relied upon for whatever they're worth even if closing Win Odds drops notably).

Note: tote board analysis and the Tote Xray is not necessarily a substitution for skilled handicapping of PP info! It is just another tool in the bag of the skilled practitioner. On the other hand - all our handicapping analysis comes down in the end to pricing of our opinion in the public market, thus the more awareness we have of what's going on there - the better perception we can have about how or whether to bet.

Ted
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