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Old 10-19-2020, 07:34 AM   #11
ScottB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raptor View Post
Of course.
Favorites win about 30 percent.
If you can eliminate (or guess) who the losing favorites are, and just bet the rest, you'll win upwards of 50% and money.
I made a graph of this thirty years ago.
I called it "axing the favorite."
Big deal.
I recommend a more flexible approach, which says bet YOUR opinion.
You may even be right!

Dave's system is based on sound handicapping principles.
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Old 10-19-2020, 08:41 AM   #12
Mitch44
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For favorites 30 & 33% are old standards, in todays racing favorites are winning at a 37 % or better clip. The reason is todays smaller fields and a weakening of the breed or not as many better class horses to go around. Years back there was much less or more fewer man made class levels races as the levels were stronger.

It wouldn't take much now a days to reach 50% winning favorites, back in the day a more difficult task. Of course that's adding one's favorite tweaks or additional qualifications.

A favorite pays a variety of prices so the value is in the eye of the player. They sure beat what Banks are paying for interest now a days, on its way Banks will be getting paid by the customers just to keep their money safe.

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Old 10-21-2020, 09:26 AM   #13
Mitch44
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Well obviously we're not talking about playing every favorite. There are deserving favorites and false favorites. John Q, Public views them all the same and lumps them all together.

Even with today's stats, that is around 37% win, the 63% that lose can be greatly improved upon and reduced. One just needs to be able to recognize some false favorites to do that. Gaining that 13 % out of 63% to achieve a 50% win rate is entirely doable. I can think of several qualifiers that could be used to find legit favorites. My example with the Filly above speaks for its self.

My approach is and always has been to bet the best horse and with that approach I could care less whether its the favorite or goes off at 100 to 1. If you want to know about the unknown than investigate the unknown.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 10-21-2020 at 09:29 AM.
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Old 10-21-2020, 06:42 PM   #14
Lefty
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I give up PCTG of wins for price. As Taulbot once said,(I paraphrase)price cures a lot of ills.
BUT, that said, there are lots of ways to approach this game.
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Old 10-22-2020, 07:30 AM   #15
Mitch44
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Taulbot was correct Lefty as price does cure a lot of ills. I was a big follower of Taulbot.

Players do tend to find their own comfort criteria and process in this game.

Regardless of technique money management plays a vital role whether favorites, longshots, pace etc. They do tend to follow what they have had success at.

Far too many blindly accept old stats and are too lazy to develop their own through research. The critical question should be, how do I improve from 37% favorites?What are some factors that false favorites have in common? BTW this is a very tough one to quantify verses some other research. What are some common factors for stretch outs? Repeaters, layoffs FTS etc. . . .

The enemy really is John Q. Public and one should be aware of their strengths and weaknesses. In many cases they are predicable.There is greater potential in the 63% favorites that lose than in the 37% that win.

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Old 10-22-2020, 10:22 AM   #16
ScottB
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Originally Posted by Raptor View Post
I honestly don't know what you two are talking about.
From any group of favorites (I don't care how much they pay or win),
eliminate the bad ones and just play the rest.
Results may vary.
There are problems with who ultimately becomes the favorite in the pool, which I am very well aware of!
Your move.

I go in a different direction simply because I've already been there.
What is your method to eliminate the bad ones ???
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Old 10-27-2020, 11:13 AM   #17
ScottB
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To state the obvious more clearly, why is the Public making this particular horse the favorite?
To complicate this even more, how much inside money is involved?
What's the horse look like?
Who's Matt Carothers picking? (The Kiss of Death)
I could go on.
No method per se.
Sounds like a very haphazard method.
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Old 11-07-2020, 06:17 PM   #18
Mitch44
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Here's another example,in the 4th today at Kee., BC day; The winner Gamine only paid $4.20 but triggered a very nice DD that paid $76.20. Can't make money on favorites?


Determine the best horse and design a bet to capitalize on your analysis.
COMPLETED:3ad1b-7858eKEE
#4
$6 Double2, WT, 6, 7, 8, 12none$24.00$228.60
+ $204.60
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Old 11-07-2020, 06:40 PM   #19
Dorianmode
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There is literally no way to get away from the fact your horse may be left at the gate, refuse to run or not feel like it, etc.
You have a system?
Bully for you.

1. That's one of the reasons why many here bet on (called a "dutch'') two horses. It vastly reduces the probability that any one horse does what you say. You are entirely correct but there is a way to off-set that fact.
2. If you keep meticulous records, you know how often that happens, (on average), and you build in that very real occurance into you minimlly acceptable odds for a wager, so when it happens, you just move on.
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