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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-01-2021, 02:14 AM   #1
Psychotic Parakeet
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7/31 dmr r7

How in the heck did Miss Carousel win at 78-1? I am racking my brain trying to figure out if I overlooked her by my own myopicness, or it is just one of those things that couldn't have been helped no matter what. Nearly the same page for After Midnight. Exacta paid over $1k!

The 3 and 7 horse in this race were my two main interests, and of course, they didn't pan out. They weren't the clear cut best on paper, but had more upside than the others.
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Old 08-01-2021, 07:20 PM   #2
rdiam
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With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, some observations:

1. The paceline I would have selected would use the May 30 race

2. Although not part of the Sartin methodology, the pedigree on the 6 was the best of this field

3. Five of the ten runners (including the 10 who was nosed out for the win) were "need the lead" types, creating a fast early pace and possibly setting the race up for a horse from off the pace. The 6's lone win came with a PS running style

That said, not an easy decision to bet the 6 to win in this race.

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Old 08-01-2021, 07:59 PM   #3
gandalf380
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if you have doubts about a paceline selection, nothing stops you from entering more than one line. Let the program tell you which line to use.
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Old 08-02-2021, 08:54 AM   #4
Mitch44
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I would have used L 2 also. This horse is really an unknown factor with only 2 races on the turf. And only one race with B off at the conditions, in that one it changed its running style and vastly improved.

Weather the plan was to come off the pace again with all the speed in here is an unknown, however being bumped out of the gate forced it to run S again. A young improving horse that is subject to keep on improving. Last on dirt is a throw-out as it never has run good on dirt.

BL consider any horse that doesn't have 3 races at the conditions an unknown factor. This one didn't have 3 races on the surface and only one with B off which greatly improved this one. 3 yr. olds are notorious for big jumps in improvement.

As Richard said still a tough bet and hindsight is perfect. Detailed analysis would say it wasn't impossible even before the race. Any UNKNOWN Factor horse is subject to jump up and win.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 08-02-2021 at 08:56 AM.
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