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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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08-04-2021, 11:39 AM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
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use Tim SC model horse 4,7,5,2,8 is under 3.5 so is my win contender , my BLBL top 4 is 7,4,5,2, i will use VDC top 2 is my pick,7 have a class edge
my bet is 7,4 to win, good luck to all reply thank you raymond |
08-04-2021, 12:47 PM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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In a paceless race only the 2 and 4 have won while leading at half or 3/4. Unless the pace is really slow, these are my two final contenders with the 7 or 8 possibly good enough for place, etc. Bill |
08-04-2021, 01:17 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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My selection is #2.
My exacta plays are 2 / 6,7 #9 is scratched. |
08-04-2021, 01:47 PM | #14 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
#7, you chose line 6. There are 4 lines before that which are near today's distance, same track, same surface, all fast, no discernable variant issue. Can you share what took you down to line 6? I show it as a similar class to today... did that factor in? |
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08-04-2021, 02:06 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,117
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Here is my look
#1 L8 #2 L1 #3 NO LINE NON CONTENDER WOULD USE L4] #4 L1 #5 NO LINE NON CONTENDER[WOULD USE L3] #6 L5 #7 L3 #8 L3 #10 NO LINE NON CONTENDEER[WOULD USE L4] #11 NO LINE NON CONTENDER [ WOULD USE L3] Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
08-04-2021, 03:32 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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In the early late graph notice that most of the races are from -7.0 - -13.30, so lines 1-2-5-9 are out for me, then take out the off track lines 7 and 8. This horse is a 6 YO and they rarely repeat their bests. so line 3 is out...Use either line 4 or 6. See my original screen and see that the 6 does not have all four of the critical factors, being 1-5-5-X, so he is out for win. He might close strongly and could get place. But who knows? I like the 2 and 4 to win. |
08-04-2021, 04:14 PM | #17 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
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08-04-2021, 04:50 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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OH Boy, my bad, see here is my view of the seven (7).
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08-04-2021, 05:08 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Prx
Race 11. 4-7-8
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08-04-2021, 05:20 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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OH Boy, my bad, see here is my view of the seven (7).
E/L graph shows -6.7 to -1.5, so that eliminates lines 5 (sprint)-7 (off)-9-10. The 8 line is really low, but he did win, but it shows how slow the pace has to be for this horse to be competitive (E/L = 161.5, BTW). Another horse older than 4, and line 4 does not show up any where else, either by adjusted SR or total energy - and against a really fast variant that I chose not to compare to anyone else (note too that its not a tandem with anyone else entered in that particular line). So that leaves lines 1-2-3-6. I don't trust high variants in either direction so unless everyone is within a few variant points I won't use the line. For me the line 1 and 3 are out, leaving lines 2 and 6. Guess what, almost the same total energy and the E/L's are close. It looks like this horse runs the same against fast paces and slower ones, e.g. 80.9+87.6= 168.5 and 82.5+85.5=168.0. So you could use either line. I have found this not to be that rare, especially in the case of Sustained horses that are at the mercy of who does what on the front end. If its too fast, they have a chance to catch up. The run the same race and hope for a pace collapse. I could use a high variant race if the TE is similar to a variant closer to "0". The 7 was my third horse but both the 7 and 4 ran against slow internal fractions. I just think the 2 should have a lot in reserve if that pace develops or walks all over them if it assumes the lead mid way through the race. |
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