Philadelphia Park Data for Decision Making

[Bill V.]

Data includes all non maiden races for the fall meet starting 8/30
to 9/7

For each distance, I have made separate data sheets for 3YO (if any so far)
3 + and 3+ Fillies and Mares

Not too many races yet as they are running lots of 5 furlong turf races
and I don't record anything under 5.5.
Also they are running many 7.5 Turf races with no fractions

The races are listed in order of the race date and race #
for a track profile summary

for your perusal my fellow Sartin Meteorologist
Good Skill
Its a great day at PHA

Bill V

[mikesal57]

nice going Bill...this is a lot of work but its necessary to WIN!!

one more thing if you can ..add a column and just put the class of that race..no biggie , but it will help
Mike

[SilentRun]

Bill,

Thanks for the effort you are taking to model, I play Philly fairly regularly and the data
you present is a complement to what I model.

Ernie

[Bill V.]

Thanks Mike and Ernie

i am not to happy with the format. I'd rather do it the way Doc says
separating by Total Energy High Low and Average and distance

From Follow Up #32

[mikesal57]

Bill you were headed in the right direction with your profiles..

Yes its a lot of work in the beginning but it will pay off!!!

lets give an example...

Track profile at one mile 10claimers......5-3-2-1 (position only)

horse a- 2-2-1-1 total energy 161 2-1 odds
horse b- 3-2-1-1 total energy 163 3-1 "
horse c- 6-3-1-1 total energy 159 6-1 "

Who would you choose?

[SilentRun]

I have found that in sprints up to 6.5F TE is not as significant the fourth factor
(% of energy E/L). This is not only true for PHA but across a significant number
of tracks. To lock onto the early contenders I have also found that
E/L, F1, SC , E/EP and EPR to be more reliable than TE for sprints only.
For each playable sprint I now set up a decision table (3 deep)
using the above indicators and I have been having good results.
Many of these races are so similiar that I note them as PR (Pattern Recognition).

Ernie

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by mikesal57

Bill you were headed in the right direction with your profiles..

Yes its a lot of work in the beginning but it will pay off!!!

lets give an example...

Track profile at one mile 10claimers......5-3-2-1 (position only)

horse a- 2-2-1-1 total energy 161 2-1 odds
horse b- 3-2-1-1 total energy 163 3-1 "
horse c- 6-3-1-1 total energy 159 6-1 "

Who would you choose?

I dont know Mike Horse C fits the position and the odds
but how was that 159 total energy earned

was its % med way to low like 65.00% when my profile says winners at 163 total energy need about 67%
with like a 32.00 1st and a 33.00 2nd fraction was it able to close with a 35% 3rd fraction against 163 total energy horses
Id have to see how the program rated them and use all the reaouts not just
Total energy This is what Doc writes about total energy as class

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Thanks Mike and Ernie

i am not to happy with the format. I'd rather do it the way Doc says
separating by Total Energy High Low and Average and distance

From Follow Up #32
Attachment 20560

I can understand the reason you weren't happy with what you were doing. Simply put, it was wrong.

Now that you posted what "Doc" said to do, maybe you could explain it.
In #1, he says to separate total energy by class, with an explanation of possible high total energy classes, but in #3 he says you SHOULD NOT keep this information separated by class.
In #2, he talks about low total energy and that low total energy is usually represented by 3 year old fillies and males. Naturally there is no such thing as a 3 year old "mare", but not matter, again he goes on to say in #3 that "sex" SHOULD NOT be used.

Do you see how this can be confusing?

If you DIDN'T separate by class, how would you know the high total energy races would be Allowance, Stakes and/or Handicaps?

If you DIDN'T separate by sex, how would you know the low total energy races would be from 3 year old females?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by For The Lead

I can understand the reason you weren't happy with what you were doing. Simply put, it was wrong.

Now that you posted what "Doc" said to do, maybe you could explain it.
In #1, he says to separate total energy by class, with an explanation of possible high total energy classes, but in #3 he says you SHOULD NOT keep this information separated by class.
In #2, he talks about low total energy and that low total energy is usually represented by 3 year old fillies and males. Naturally there is no such thing as a 3 year old "mare", but not matter, again he goes on to say in #3 that "sex" SHOULD NOT be used.

Do you see how this can be confusing?

If you DIDN'T separate by class, how would you know the high total energy races would be Allowance, Stakes and/or Handicaps?

If you DIDN'T separate by sex, how would you know the low total energy races would be from 3 year old females?

Basic Sartin Methodolgy Class is measured by total energy
When Doc refers to class he means total energy

Docs writings are confusing, They always have been. Ever try and follow along reading the yellow manual? talk about confusing

Look I am going to provide the data that I'm keeping for my own
use here. You and everybody is free to take away, add too sort by
age sex name jockeys birthday what ever That is why I present it in a
spreadsheet, Play around with it all you want .tell me I'm full of crap I appreciate that my work is helping me and others

[Charlie D]

Bill, no problem.

Good Skill to All.