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RDSS Racing Decision Support System – The Modern Sartin Methodology |
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05-22-2009, 11:53 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 304
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3rd Hol 22May09 ..Enlighten a newbie
Please review the 3rd race at Hol..... and give me a redboard analysis...
I ended up with the 2 sprinters #9-Threat #3-All Set.....which were also the 2 favs. along with #4-Good Shot as the 3rd choice. I've tried reworking the race afterwards n still could not see the winner #2 and place horse#5 winning the race.... Any opinions or critique analysis regarding that race would be helpful... Thanks In Advance... |
05-23-2009, 07:43 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 7,014
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Morning "Snake" and welcome.
First off I stay as far away from 7.5 races as possible. I dont work those races nor use 7.5 lines in races I am working.Bastard distance in my opinion. 2 turn race but they use the 4f mark instead of 6f mark for the 2c pace. Fugghedaboutit. Having said that working the race from a best of last 3 standpoint I got the same 2 horses as you squarely on top of Bl/Bl with giant edge over 3rd ranked. since both your guys went off at 7/5 looking at results seems a pretty good case could be made to consider passing quickly and moving on to a race where there is some better odds Best of luck |
05-23-2009, 08:40 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Hi, I took the liberty of relocating this post-mortem analysis from the Selections Forum
Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
05-23-2009, 09:53 AM | #4 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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The art of passing races
Quote:
Thank you Rich From follow up # 75 about page 30- 35 or close The article is The Art and Science of Passing Races part 2 .... here is something I have saved for my own reminder |
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05-25-2009, 04:45 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 304
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Thank You Gents.. for the input....and yes I did pass the race....I am just in the process of learning the program and as a regimen would work all the races including those with quirky distances.
again TY... |
05-25-2009, 06:03 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Hi seattlesnake, and welcome!
I don't disagree at all that one approach to a race like this is to PASS, and what follows is not an inducement to have bet it, nor a magical redboard post-mortem. Is is, rather, an attempt to display some of the moving parts in the matchup analysis of what was going on in the race, now that we can see from the Result Chart how it unfolded. Perhaps this will help, in general, to identify what tools exist to reveal how the horses might interact with each other. Here's a collection of screens, from reasonable (IMO) pacelines: I have circled 4 horses' readouts: the Top 2 per the BL/BL (#9 and #3), who were also the 2 Earliest Energies (from EPR and E/ep) and who were also the top 2 Total Energy (and who both finished up the track) and the 2 most Late Energy horses (L/ep and E/L - the #5 and #2), and best Deceleration, but also lowest Total Energy (and who finished 1st and 2nd). Is this merely random, or an unreliable pattern for analysis of future races? Further observations: the #9 and #3 are arguably the horses most likely to go for the lead, according to both their positional Running Style (RS = EP) and their Energy Disbursement (E/ep and EPR readouts). The #3 appears to have a bit of an edge both energetically and positionally, however per the Original screen Projected Pace of 22.3 44.8 (best time of an Early-type horse), the #9 can also run within .20 seconds of the #3 at the 1st call (and at 6f at SA). Can the #3 prevail early against the #9, slow down and conserve its energy sufficient to close against the likely closers (the #2 and #5)? Maybe - maybe not. Are there any defects to the #3 (aside from the possible pressure by the #9). Hard to say, however, I'll argue that the post-time odds of 1.40 - 1 count as a defect: either the race should be passed (top 2 BL/BL horses are also top 2 favourites) - or the large percentage of the Win pool bet on those horses create good odds on our best Late horses, should the Earlies tire each other and the race run Other Than Early (OTE). In the event, exactly that happened: the #3 and #9 fought head-to-head for 4f (slowly) but indeed tired each other out, setting up for the best Late horses, which we see by the L/ep and E/L readouts and the Deceleration rankings (least deceleration during the 3rd fraction relative to the 2nd call velocity). BTW, I'll suggest that the #8 which was also Late, had never proven an ability to run past 6f, or even that far, lately and competitively. So, the pre-race analysis showed us the likely Early horses (who in fact ran that way in the race) and also the likely Late horses (who did in fact run Late). All that was required for this OTE outcome was that the 2 Early horses steal enough of each others' Late Energy by making them each run too fast too early. It's hard to say in this particular event (or perhaps for any given similar matchup of horses) whether this would happen to the Earlies, but at least the observation should be made, and the question asked. Then you decide whether to take an educated risk (the core of our game): at the odds offered on the OTE (Late) horses, is the possibility that the Earlies will tire worth the payoff on the Late horses if they do. Here we are offered 6-1 and 12-1. This then is the wagercapper's decision. Just trying to shed some more light on what happened (and what were the potential scenarios that might have been expected to reasonably happen). I think a lot can be learned by working races backwards this way. Comments? Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-25-2009 at 06:07 PM. |
05-26-2009, 12:15 PM | #7 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Remember this is what i see as a Matcher on Ted's raw readout
#3 LOOMS UP - Eliminate #8 and #9 from the Match Up Do same with routers, Match Up apple to apple and you are left with #2 Do same with 7f horses and you are left with #1 and #7 who look like they ran in same race - Elimate the Tandem Loser unless you think there are valid reasons not to. Your now left with #1, #2 and #3 as your contenders. #3 is 1.40 at post time as Ted states - Hide this mother, if he bites you, let him. Two horse bet #1 and #2 Go collect For instruction see RichieP's RDSS/ Match Up tutorial
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" Last edited by Charlie D; 05-26-2009 at 12:27 PM. |
05-26-2009, 01:21 PM | #8 | |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Quote:
You now have three contenders to look at, in the #1, #2 and #3 and you NOW have to decide, who is an overlay and who is an underlay and bet appropriately or pass the race. Hope this helps.
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"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
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05-26-2009, 04:22 PM | #9 |
turf historian
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 6,455
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Is this my old internet Pal T. T.? welcome in either case. You should come up this summer with Emerald and Hastings open up their prospective BC and Washington Cups to one another. I will take you on a tour of the press box, introduce you to the DRF rep, track announcer and public handicapper as well as take you on a tour of the television studio and the photo finish booth.
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Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind." Last edited by Tim Y; 05-26-2009 at 04:24 PM. |
05-26-2009, 05:12 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Another input here is that the E/L model for 7F races is negative for the most part and the 8.5 F model is an even larger negative number so anyone dueling against a positive E/L of say greater than +2 is in trouble. This aspect doesn't solve the whole puzzle, but it helps to eliminate the 3 and anyone unfortunate enough to run with him.
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