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Old 09-01-2009, 04:28 PM   #11
pktruckdriver
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Gentlemen

Thank you so much, all these are fantastic responses, and yes I must find what works for me and get busy doing it.

I have not really wagered recently , so keeping track of my wagers will easy to do as I begin to wager again. Knowing my weakness here will be invaluable help. I look forward to what I will learn. It is good having a direction again and something to look forward at the end.

Paceline selction seems to be a natural thing for me to do and I feel that I am okay here,my socalled gut feeling and practical knowledge of what I am looking at help me here in choosing the riight line,sometimes I choose 2 and then later eliminate one of them.

Right now,I see Mumbo Jumbo when I put the info into the Model I have , the one Ted gave us but it is not sepereated by distance or surface, but still to find patterns in it, man it will take me some time to notice that. But seeing if this or that factor keeps popping up should be easy enough.

Again thanks for your responses
I appreciate all the help,andwill keep you abreast of how I do

Patrick
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Old 09-01-2009, 04:33 PM   #12
pktruckdriver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlesnake View Post
Patrick

If you clump your winners profile together in 1 batch....it would be very hard to decipher and see and actual an pattern. You have to compare apples to apples...

I would start by seperating by surface & distance and then you will see the parameters that has been winning for you.

Hide the columns that may seem unimportant to you based on the averages below the grid...see example...
Attachment 17535

It will show you a lot of things....from layoffs, paceline selection, bl/bl, vdc, e/l diff. and % med. which i usually key on.

Hope this helps...please note this is MY win profile at 8f turf..yours will differ based on your paceline selections

Jess
Yes I like your Model,the colors make it easy to read,but your statement that hit home was my paceline selction will be different, maybe then yours,so it will give me a different readout, yes I see your point now, and trust me I know it needs to be done, but I still follow the edict of less is better, or the KISS,mentioned above and keeping it relatively simple.

Thanks Jess


Patrick
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Old 09-01-2009, 05:48 PM   #13
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Houndog

Quote:
Originally Posted by Houndog View Post
This was is a little more detailed and has a sample in the zip file.
This is exactly what I was looking for! I really appreciate this.
Thanks Houndog! Your are a cool dude.
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Old 09-01-2009, 07:14 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pktruckdriver View Post

Would you please comment about your important Model making and why and what info do you leave to others to gather for you ???


Thank you
Patrick
A few weeks ago, I posted a spreadsheet for you that I use, mentioning that i prefer to do things by hand as i learn while inputting. I leave nothing to others, I'm quite capable of making my own mistakes.

My model showed me yesterday that 50% of the winners in 9 furlong races at Saratoga as per my pace line selection were ranked #1 in CPR and BL, 43% were ranked #1 in FX.

In the ninth race, Dean Henry was ranked first in CPR, FX and BL. It was really a no-brainer since the odds were 8/1.

That's how I use my model to isolate spot plays.

At 6F, the top rated BL horse has won 43% at an average mutuel of $5.30. That's not a great ROIR, but the meet has been loaded with chalk.
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Old 09-01-2009, 11:14 PM   #15
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Houndog & pkruckdriver

I'm replying to both of you because, Houndog I'm using your work and pktruckdriver, I thought it would be helpful to you.

If you look at Houndog's spreadsheet I have sorted it on "TE". As a result, you can see that with a single exception, the lowest TE's are all maiden races. Keeping models that way, for me, makes it easier to look at, at a glance.

Also, if you look at the other information, just as a result of this sort on TE, you can see the differences in 2fbl. Notice how the higher numbers are primarily among the maidens, while the lower number are at the top among the ALW races.

In addition, by sorting on TE you can see that the classes of the races almost fall directly in line, with ALW races being at the top, CLM races in the middle and maidens at the bottom.

Again, for me, this makes looking at models a lot easier. Since they tend to group together like that anyway, why not keep the models that way. The next time I'm faced with a similar race, I don't have to pick through a long list of mixed races to find what I'm looking for. I just pull up the type of race I'm looking at and the comparative information is right there and easy to look at. But again, this is my way of doing things. It doesn't make it the ONLY WAY of doing it.
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Old 09-02-2009, 10:14 AM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlesnake View Post
Patrick

If you clump your winners profile together in 1 batch....it would be very hard to decipher and see and actual an pattern. You have to compare apples to apples...

I would start by seperating by surface & distance and then you will see the parameters that has been winning for you.

Hide the columns that may seem unimportant to you based on the averages below the grid...see example...
Attachment 17535

It will show you a lot of things....from layoffs, paceline selection, bl/bl, vdc, e/l diff. and % med. which i usually key on.

Hope this helps...please note this is MY win profile at 8f turf..yours will differ based on your paceline selections

Jess
90% 1 or 2 BL I don't know whether to laugh , cry or toss Spec out the Window because at my absolute BEST I can't get in the same Country let alone zip code of that kind of performance... Great Job. Any line selection tips for us morons?
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Old 09-02-2009, 10:37 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by jms62 View Post
90% 1 or 2 BL I don't know whether to laugh , cry or toss Spec out the Window because at my absolute BEST I can't get in the same Country let alone zip code of that kind of performance... Great Job. Any line selection tips for us morons?
Not taking anything away from the poster who, by the way, did a really nice job on this spreadsheet, but unless I read it wrong the 90% was the percentage of #1 and #2 pacelines selected. The BL/BL# percentage was 75%.

This might help you with the answer to your question about help with pacelines. It seems he didn't have to go very far to find a useful line.
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Old 09-02-2009, 11:54 AM   #18
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Relying on total energy will get you missing the right pace line OFTEN. Using the e/ep as a guideline to what the horse is capable of withstanding early works for more often than any "at the wire" quantification.
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Old 09-02-2009, 03:55 PM   #19
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Wow all great info and Seattle your color schemed Model is amazing and you manually input the data or do cut and paste also?

FTL I looked at your Model, and I could not see what you were explaining to us, now it may be and lack of knowledge at what I am looking at, as I have never seen Models like thses before,Ilike the color scheme, the % total on the bottom, and the ,as you stated the paceline selection being either the 1st or 2nd 90% of the time, that sceanario does make selction process more simple does it not, but then isn't the basic line selction state try to stay within the last 3 lines and under 30 days and no more than 90 days, besides a few other things concerning distance and surfaces. But I feel my line selection process is actually okay, honestly ,it is the other stuff like modeling and interpreting the race and pace that I need much help on, even thou I see myself accomplishing this easily enough in the future, right now I'm still learning, hope that made sense. Otherwords I am seeing me in the future being able to use RDSS so easily and effortlessly that I will be winning more and more races because of RDSS, without a doubt, no maybe do better,but absolutely 100% become a better player because of RDSS and my understanding of it a tool to help me win,Thats what I see in my mind,my dream/subconscious whatever you call it, basically telling/progamming me to become what I want to, and thats a winner.

I believe that is in one of the follow ups, also in other self-help things like TM and Tony Robbins , Napolean Hill,etc.. seeing the future and seeing you a winner thru study and practice, because you now have the tool to win, and you then need to program your mind that you will be a winner, well I am doing that are there others here doing this also.

But let me keep on track here, Seattle has the most appealing Spreadsheet to me, as iT HAS SHINING THINGS AND MAKE ME GO BONKERS OVER IT, it also has the different distances and surfaces ,but could if one wanted break it down to the class levels ,clm alw, stk and maidens ,thus even making it stick out more when you look at it, great job Seattlesnake, and everyone else to, because what you do works for you , like FTL who has great success with his method, but when I look at it I see chaos, now anyway, but when told what I am looking at and how to look at it,then it will make sense, because others here love it, and I am sure it is efficent, no doubt as FTL is very good capper, and rightly so with the work put into it, did I get off subject again?


I am without anything right now, No MODELS, not to say that I do not have many saved on my computer, one's that have been shown and given to me to look at, and yet even after doing almost all of DelMar , I still can not, decipher any trends from the info I cut and pasted into the model , not sure why ,but when others say this or that, I go back and look and see if I see what they are talknig about and I do not see it, I just see too many races, all making no sense to me,but I am not giving up hereand will beg my way into someone's generous heart and beg them to help me understand and accomplish making and reading my own models and to learn tolove doing it too,why .because it will make me a bigger and more consisitent winner, that's it is so important to me, and should be to other's too,of course.

Question is who can I plead with, beg and bribe, get down on one knee and to ask them to help me get this stuff, as I have tried it with Ted's wonderful program,and even though I get the info in there, I just can't see what I am looking at, unlike with RDSS, which you can just scan with your eyes and see things quickly enough, which is one of the reasons I love this program, but the model is not so easy to read for me, sorry about that, as both Ted and Richie put alot of time into this, even made inputting the data easier for me, (it seemed, like they did it for me , but I'm sure i wasn't just me who wanted to save time), and I feel a little bad that I just don't get it, yet. BUT I WILL

Patrick
gotta run ,more later

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyYZUhSeRYc

Last edited by pktruckdriver; 09-02-2009 at 04:07 PM.
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Old 09-02-2009, 07:59 PM   #20
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Thumbs up Barb C

Red board alert:

Working races live at Wdb with Barb C tonight. We planned to work first 3-4 together and then call it a night.

She told me before the 1st race ran that the 3rd race had by far the strongest models with E/Ep dominating based on her lines.

The following is a screen shot of her lines *best of last 3" showing the Energy screen.. the top 2 E/Ep horses are the #2 and #8.

She took win bets on them and then included her top 3 Bl/Bl horses in a 3 horse box. 8-7-2

The result was very good and she really had a serious sense of confidence for THIS race Honest to Goodness it was her Poly route model.

Nice work Barb!


** To keep it real we both bet and lost the first 2 races taking a losing 3 horse box in 1 of the 2 while eschewing the exacta in the other.**
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