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09-12-2010, 06:57 AM | #21 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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data
Thank You Charlie
The data in my spread sheets makes all Bob Cochran's suggestions possible to track Its a starting point. Its every non maiden run at the meet since Philly reopened. Its current and its listed in race date and race number order so the although its not "perfect" it should serve its purpose Thank you for this back posting by Bob C. PIRCO Teaching member |
09-12-2010, 09:47 AM | #22 |
Match Up Apprentice
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 2,105
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Bill, no problem.
Good Skill to All.
__________________
"To me, The Match Up supercedes everything" |
09-12-2010, 11:18 AM | #23 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 311
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When is TE less reliable?
Quote:
I agree with what you say here about going with the model, when that is working for you. However, I would like to add that a maiden-claiming sprint for 2yos is not the kind of race on which the Sartin primary factors are best employed, although they can be useful. As Doc Sartin pointed out in the yellow manual, they (including a factor like TE) work best with the most stable, mechanical, and behaviorally conditioned animals - as an ideal, let's say 50k older claiming horses. TE and the other primary factors work less well with more erratic types of horses, maidens, younger horses (2yos, and for me 3yos), and cheaper horses, let's say sub-10k, since that is the figure used by Ken Massa for a cutoff in his research. My experience is that they are also less effective above GR III. Any time I mention TE, it's based on my research excluding this less stable population of horses, which admittedly, comprise about half of all races. Also, even with among so-called 'stable' horses, TE is less effective at the opposite ends of the e/l spectrum - 5f sprints, and grass routes at some tracks. In fact, 5f races are often won, like this race, by the horse with the best F1. After all is said though, this horse was also #3 TE, only about 1 fps from the #1, who showed. Cheers, lansdale |
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09-12-2010, 12:09 PM | #24 | |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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Quote:
were either Maiden Claiming or MSW. Ernie |
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09-12-2010, 11:01 PM | #25 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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9/12 Update
Here are today's updated results 7 races added
track was fast as it has been every day I expected rain today but it held off. I will add a track condition listing on the next update Here is the latest data |
09-13-2010, 09:43 AM | #26 | |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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Quote:
I really appreciate the time and effort that it takes to present this data. Even more so since I have become a regular Philly player. By chance I was looking over R3 from 9/11 6F for 3+ where the winner #7 paid 25.40. This one got under my radar and I wanted to know why. I want to pass this by you because I see some discrepancies between the data I read from RDSS and what is presented. For example in your model this race is under 6.0 for FM3+...I read this race as for males. The 2nd line is consistent because RDSS also shows a SR of 84 but the following is different: Your Data: TE: 168.01 Med: 69.55 E/L: 13 RDSS line2: TE: 169.13 MED: 69.4 E/L: 12.1 Maybe I am Off here by not comparing apples to apples ? Ernie |
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09-13-2010, 10:17 AM | #27 | |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Prof rater
Hi Ernie
Quote:
As far as the numbers you see They are from the result charts This is more of a Profile The data is entered in to The Sartin Methodology program Prof Rater which was available in the Pace launcher / Synthesis time frame The numbers you see are the actual raw pace of race with the winners beaten lengths added these numbers are typed into Prof rater and it works just like Pace Launcher and synthesis and hand entry Validator The numbers for Total Speed Rating % Medium ESP running style 2nd fraction 3rd fraction and late Early Graph are the readouts from Prof -Rater This is not my model., I do not model but that is my own choice based on what Doc writes about in the follow up . Basically he says that over time most of the factors ranking will average out to about 2.75 The key to a Sartin Profile as I understand it is to look for parameters of % medium The Early /Late graph 2nd and 3rd fraction energy expenditures 2nd call beaten lengths and sort races by Hi Average and Low Total Energy The speed ratings are nothing more than a way for me to see the strength of the line since a 100 would equal the track 3 year best a 80 or 70 tells me something ( until I can get used to) total energy numbers The ESP is probably just a compliment to the energy 2nd and 3rd fraction numbers and the early late graph You Know The Methodology saying My horse won wire to wire but it had a PRE running style = it used its energy as a Presser probably like a 34.90 2nd and a 31.60 third fraction |
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09-13-2010, 12:46 PM | #28 | |
Grade 1 Aspiree
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
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Quote:
Ernie |
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09-15-2010, 09:35 PM | #29 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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End of week updates
I have added the track condition and races from 9/13 and 9/14
Lots of nice price winners. A good example of a strong late move run by the winner of Race 7 on 914 at 8.0 is this typical of winners at 8.0 ? yes or no |
09-15-2010, 09:58 PM | #30 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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from Follow ups
Prof rater
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