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Old 09-12-2010, 06:57 AM   #21
Bill V.
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data

Thank You Charlie

The data in my spread sheets makes all Bob Cochran's suggestions
possible to track

Its a starting point. Its every non maiden run at the meet since
Philly reopened. Its current and its listed in race date and race number
order so the although its not "perfect" it should serve its purpose

Thank you for this back posting by Bob C.
PIRCO Teaching member
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Old 09-12-2010, 09:47 AM   #22
Charlie D
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Bill, no problem.

Good Skill to All.
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Old 09-12-2010, 11:18 AM   #23
BJennet
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When is TE less reliable?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentRun View Post
I have found that in sprints up to 6.5F TE is not as significant the fourth factor
(% of energy E/L). This is not only true for PHA but across a significant number
of tracks. To lock onto the early contenders I have also found that
E/L, F1, SC , E/EP and EPR to be more reliable than TE for sprints only.
For each playable sprint I now set up a decision table (3 deep)
using the above indicators and I have been having good results.
Many of these races are so similiar that I note them as PR (Pattern Recognition).

Ernie
Hi Ernie,

I agree with what you say here about going with the model, when that is working for you. However, I would like to add that a maiden-claiming sprint for 2yos is not the kind of race on which the Sartin primary factors are best employed, although they can be useful.

As Doc Sartin pointed out in the yellow manual, they (including a factor like TE) work best with the most stable, mechanical, and behaviorally conditioned animals - as an ideal, let's say 50k older claiming horses. TE and the other primary factors work less well with more erratic types of horses, maidens, younger horses (2yos, and for me 3yos), and cheaper horses, let's say sub-10k, since that is the figure used by Ken Massa for a cutoff in his research. My experience is that they are also less effective above GR III.
Any time I mention TE, it's based on my research excluding this less stable population of horses, which admittedly, comprise about half of all races.

Also, even with among so-called 'stable' horses, TE is less effective at the opposite ends of the e/l spectrum - 5f sprints, and grass routes at some tracks. In fact, 5f races are often won, like this race, by the horse with the best F1. After all is said though, this horse was also #3 TE, only about 1 fps from the #1, who showed.

Cheers,

lansdale
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Old 09-12-2010, 12:09 PM   #24
SilentRun
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BJennet View Post
Hi Ernie,

I agree with what you say here about going with the model, when that is working for you. However, I would like to add that a maiden-claiming sprint for 2yos is not the kind of race on which the Sartin primary factors are best employed, although they can be useful.

As Doc Sartin pointed out in the yellow manual, they (including a factor like TE) work best with the most stable, mechanical, and behaviorally conditioned animals - as an ideal, let's say 50k older claiming horses. TE and the other primary factors work less well with more erratic types of horses, maidens, younger horses (2yos, and for me 3yos), and cheaper horses, let's say sub-10k, since that is the figure used by Ken Massa for a cutoff in his research. My experience is that they are also less effective above GR III.
Any time I mention TE, it's based on my research excluding this less stable population of horses, which admittedly, comprise about half of all races.

Also, even with among so-called 'stable' horses, TE is less effective at the opposite ends of the e/l spectrum - 5f sprints, and grass routes at some tracks. In fact, 5f races are often won, like this race, by the horse with the best F1. After all is said though, this horse was also #3 TE, only about 1 fps from the #1, who showed.

Cheers,

lansdale
Your comments are well noted for the three races that I posted the other day
were either Maiden Claiming or MSW.

Ernie
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Old 09-12-2010, 11:01 PM   #25
Bill V.
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9/12 Update

Here are today's updated results 7 races added
track was fast as it has been every day
I expected rain today but it held off. I will add a track condition
listing on the next update
Here is the latest data
Attached Files
File Type: xls PhillyTP.xls (25.5 KB, 405 views)
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Old 09-13-2010, 09:43 AM   #26
SilentRun
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Here are today's updated results 7 races added
track was fast as it has been every day
I expected rain today but it held off. I will add a track condition
listing on the next update
Here is the latest data
Bill,

I really appreciate the time and effort that it takes to present this data. Even more so since I have become a regular Philly player.

By chance I was looking over R3 from 9/11 6F for 3+ where the winner #7 paid 25.40. This one got under my radar and I wanted to know why.
I want to pass this by you because I see some discrepancies between the data I read from RDSS and what is presented.

For example in your model this race is under 6.0 for FM3+...I read this race as for males.
The 2nd line is consistent because RDSS also shows a SR of 84 but the following is different:

Your Data: TE: 168.01 Med: 69.55 E/L: 13

RDSS line2: TE: 169.13 MED: 69.4 E/L: 12.1

Maybe I am Off here by not comparing apples to apples ?

Ernie
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Old 09-13-2010, 10:17 AM   #27
Bill V.
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Prof rater

Hi Ernie
Quote:
6.0 for FM3+...I read this race as for males.
I will fix the error sorry

As far as the numbers you see They are from the result charts

This is more of a Profile The data is entered in to The Sartin Methodology
program Prof Rater which was available in the Pace launcher / Synthesis time frame
The numbers you see are the actual raw pace of race with the winners beaten lengths added these numbers are typed into Prof rater and it works just like Pace Launcher and synthesis and hand entry Validator


The numbers for Total Speed Rating % Medium ESP running style 2nd fraction 3rd fraction and late Early Graph are the readouts from Prof -Rater

This is not my model., I do not model but that is my own choice based on what Doc writes about in the follow up . Basically he says that over time most of the factors ranking will average out to about 2.75

The key to a Sartin Profile as I understand it is to look for parameters of % medium The Early /Late graph 2nd and 3rd fraction energy expenditures 2nd call beaten lengths and sort races by Hi Average and Low Total Energy
The speed ratings are nothing more than a way for me to see the
strength of the line since a 100 would equal the track 3 year best
a 80 or 70 tells me something ( until I can get used to) total energy numbers
The ESP is probably just a compliment to the energy 2nd and 3rd fraction
numbers and the early late graph
You Know The Methodology saying My horse won wire to wire but it had a
PRE running style = it used its energy as a Presser probably like a 34.90 2nd and a 31.60 third fraction
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Old 09-13-2010, 12:46 PM   #28
SilentRun
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Hi Ernie

I will fix the error sorry

As far as the numbers you see They are from the result charts

This is more of a Profile The data is entered in to The Sartin Methodology
program Prof Rater which was available in the Pace launcher / Synthesis time frame
The numbers you see are the actual raw pace of race with the winners beaten lengths added these numbers are typed into Prof rater and it works just like Pace Launcher and synthesis and hand entry Validator


The numbers for Total Speed Rating % Medium ESP running style 2nd fraction 3rd fraction and late Early Graph are the readouts from Prof -Rater
call beaten lengths and sort races by Hi Average and Low Total Energy
Ok that explains the differences....Thank You.

Ernie
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Old 09-15-2010, 09:35 PM   #29
Bill V.
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End of week updates

I have added the track condition and races from 9/13 and 9/14
Lots of nice price winners. A good example of a strong late move run by the winner of Race 7 on 914 at 8.0
is this typical of winners at 8.0 ? yes or no
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File Type: xls PhillyTP.xls (30.5 KB, 380 views)
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Old 09-15-2010, 09:58 PM   #30
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from Follow ups

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