Saturday Santa Anita Turf Mile - Grade 2- TM113 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 10-07-2011, 05:32 PM

Here is tomorrow's Oak Tree Mile - Post is 8PM Eastern

Very best of luck/skill matching em up

RichieP · 10-07-2011, 05:34 PM

...

RichieP · 10-07-2011, 06:34 PM

My contenders and eval lines

Bill Lyster · 10-08-2011, 12:26 AM

The 7 is an early running type that can run free, but should be pressed by the non-turfer 9, so I think the race is OTE.

The 3 won last out from off the pace after losing a pair trying for the lead; I think the 3 tries to come from off the lead.

the 3 closest to lead are the 3 that runs 4-3-2 at todays pace of about 47-110.1, the 6 that runs 4-3-1 off a 111.6 and the 8 who runs 5-4-3 off a 110.2

the 6 has never run against this pace, so my picks are the 3 and 8, but the 6 will be an exacta horse for me and the 5 should close well and could place.

Good luck,

PeteC · 10-08-2011, 10:19 AM

Good morning guys...

I see the race very similar to you Bill. I saw that the only two horses have run well against 47-110 are the 3 and the 8. They finished a nose apart in the DMR race 73 days ago and would be the two-horse bet.

I was about to toss the 6 because, as you mentioned, it has never faced close to the 110 pace it will today. But, it did beat the 8 in the last race tandem. I don't have a strong feeling in this case whether to favor the tandem information (the 6 is in the mix with the 3 and 8) or the pace of race information (where the 3 and 8 stand out).

We'll see how it comes out...

Capcondo · 10-08-2011, 12:13 PM

The 3, 7, 8,and 9 all look like they could be in the mix up front. The 6 looks like a true sustained horse with a strong power move two back. In the last race, the 6 ran against a 22.3 final fraction and gained 1.5 lengths.

The 6 is my choice.

Tim

Bill Lyster · 10-08-2011, 08:36 PM

5 wins 9/2; 6 second, 3 third, 7 fourth.

RichieP · 10-09-2011, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

5 wins 9/2; 6 second, 3 third, 7 fourth.

Morning Bill
Just replying to your post about "why nobody liked the 5". EVERYONE who posted here before the race agreed the WINNER would run OTE. Run my contender eval lines through ANY raw matching program and see who the best OTE runner is. Here is RDSS raw (unajusted)with my lines

alydar_ David · 10-09-2011, 10:17 AM

Richie, why would you use the eighth race back for #5? I'm not suggesting that's the correct or incorrect line to use. I'm just wondering what you were thinking.

Bill Lyster · 10-09-2011, 10:53 AM

Richie:

In my match up I used line 5 for Jeranimo, which if I had appreciated it enough would have been enough to make the 5 the winner. He was one of three who had run against a 110 and change pace. I was more concerned with the 6-4-5 positioning and did not do the alternate analysis of using the lengths back and time to see where in today's pace the five would sit.

The projected pace was 47-110.1 and my other two contenders ran 4-3-2, 4-3-1 and 5-4-3, but if I had taken the 5's pace of race and converted the time, the 5 who ran against 46.2 could have been 4 lengths closer at the half mile, which is in fact what happened. However, the 5 had not shown the propensity to trade running positions at slower earlier times, except in one recent event that he ran closer to the lead on a pace of 48.6-112. In three other races with a 110 and change six furlong time, the horse had run from the 4-5-6 slot. I thought the five would be behind at least two of the other contenders. The 133.6 final time for the 5 in that race would make him win, but I let that detail not enough thought. I will try and not make the same mistake again. You gotta know when to use the Voddoo.... Need to start a new streak!

Bill

10-07-2011, 05:32 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Saturday Santa Anita Turf Mile - Grade 2- TM113 Here is tomorrow's Oak Tree Mile - Post is 8PM Eastern Very best of luck/skill matching em up Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-07-2011, 05:34 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	... Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-07-2011, 06:34 PM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	My contenders and eval lines Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

10-08-2011, 08:36 PM	#7
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	How come nobody liked the 5 5 wins 9/2; 6 second, 3 third, 7 fourth.

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10-08-2011, 12:26 AM	#4
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	The 7 is an early running type that can run free, but should be pressed by the non-turfer 9, so I think the race is OTE. The 3 won last out from off the pace after losing a pair trying for the lead; I think the 3 tries to come from off the lead. the 3 closest to lead are the 3 that runs 4-3-2 at todays pace of about 47-110.1, the 6 that runs 4-3-1 off a 111.6 and the 8 who runs 5-4-3 off a 110.2 the 6 has never run against this pace, so my picks are the 3 and 8, but the 6 will be an exacta horse for me and the 5 should close well and could place. Good luck,

10-08-2011, 10:19 AM	#5
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Good morning guys... I see the race very similar to you Bill. I saw that the only two horses have run well against 47-110 are the 3 and the 8. They finished a nose apart in the DMR race 73 days ago and would be the two-horse bet. I was about to toss the 6 because, as you mentioned, it has never faced close to the 110 pace it will today. But, it did beat the 8 in the last race tandem. I don't have a strong feeling in this case whether to favor the tandem information (the 6 is in the mix with the 3 and 8) or the pace of race information (where the 3 and 8 stand out). We'll see how it comes out...

10-08-2011, 12:13 PM	#6
Capcondo Grade 1 Join Date: Sep 2007 Location: Tempe, Arizona Posts: 600	The 3, 7, 8,and 9 all look like they could be in the mix up front. The 6 looks like a true sustained horse with a strong power move two back. In the last race, the 6 ran against a 22.3 final fraction and gained 1.5 lengths. The 6 is my choice. Tim

10-09-2011, 10:17 AM	#9
alydar_ David Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 2,654	Richie, why would you use the eighth race back for #5? I'm not suggesting that's the correct or incorrect line to use. I'm just wondering what you were thinking.

10-09-2011, 10:53 AM	#10
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Richie: In my match up I used line 5 for Jeranimo, which if I had appreciated it enough would have been enough to make the 5 the winner. He was one of three who had run against a 110 and change pace. I was more concerned with the 6-4-5 positioning and did not do the alternate analysis of using the lengths back and time to see where in today's pace the five would sit. The projected pace was 47-110.1 and my other two contenders ran 4-3-2, 4-3-1 and 5-4-3, but if I had taken the 5's pace of race and converted the time, the 5 who ran against 46.2 could have been 4 lengths closer at the half mile, which is in fact what happened. However, the 5 had not shown the propensity to trade running positions at slower earlier times, except in one recent event that he ran closer to the lead on a pace of 48.6-112. In three other races with a 110 and change six furlong time, the horse had run from the 4-5-6 slot. I thought the five would be behind at least two of the other contenders. The 133.6 final time for the 5 in that race would make him win, but I let that detail not enough thought. I will try and not make the same mistake again. You gotta know when to use the Voddoo.... Need to start a new streak! Bill