Kentucky Derby Thread (early and daily)

[CheckMark]

I know it is early but here is a thread for posting picks, chatting about the race itself and any other things people may want to talk about.

Good luck to all the horses in the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

[CheckMark]

I am starting this thread with my 10 contenders with my fair odds.
——————————————-

1) Omaha Beach 2-1
2) Vekoma 5-2
3) Maximum Security 5-1
4) Roadster 4-1
5) Game Winner 8-1 or 10-1
6) War of Will 18-1
7) Improbable 8-1
8) Tacitus 10-1
9) Plus Que Parfait 50-1
10) Spinoff 20-1

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by CheckMark

I am starting this thread with my 10 contenders with my fair odds.
——————————————-

1) Omaha Beach 2-1
2) Vekoma 5-2
3) Maximum Security 5-1
4) Roadster 4-1
5) Game Winner 8-1 or 10-1
6) War of Will 18-1
7) Improbable 8-1
8) Tacitus 10-1
9) Plus Que Parfait 50-1
10) Spinoff 20-1

Hi CheckMark,

I would say the contenders are :

Tacitus
Omaha Beach
Vekoma
Roadster
By My Standards
Maximum Security
Spinoff

I think Omaha Beach will be out there early and will probably hit the board, same with Vekoma, he will be out there early and do well. Not sure if either of these horses is as fast as Spinoff though, I think it is going to be tough up front. Maximum Security is an early horse, but he got such an easy pace at FlaDerby, I do not think he will have the same late kick here.

I see Tacitus and Roadster coming on at the end, but do not think they will make it in time.

I think the race sets up well for By My Standards.

My early, early, way too early to trust picks are :

By My Standards to win
Spinoff, Tacitus, Vekoma as the runners-up.

I have been betting since the early 90's on thoroughbreds and I have never hit the exacta on the Derby, so please take my picks with a grain of salt.

[CheckMark]

Here are the official post positions of the Derby 2019!

War of Will (20/1)
Tax (20/1)
By My Standards (20/1)
Gray Magician (50/1)
Improbable (6/1)
Vekoma (20/1)
Maximum Security (10/1)
Tacitus (10/1)
Plus Que Parfait (30/1)
Cutting Humor (30/1)
Haikal (30/1)
Omaha Beach (4/1)
Code of Honor (15/1)
Win Win Win (15/1)
Master Fencer (50/1)
Game Winner (5/1)
Roadster (6/1)
Long Range Toddy (30/1)
Spinoff (30/1)
Country House (30/1)

[Mr.Pagine]

Can War Of Will get out from #1
Is Roadster out too far #17
I love Omaha Beach at #12
I adore Maximum Security at #7

Happy Punting!!
Jon

[partsnut]

I will bet on (#19) Spinoff ML 30-1 for win and place.

I believe the (#7) Maximum Security ML 10-1 has a shot.
This years field should bring a price.

[rdiam]

Omaha Beach scratched

[CheckMark]

Yep. Thank you for breaking that news.
Guess I will have to go back and re do picks. My picks will be up Thursday night.

[CheckMark]

Ok ladies and gents here is my full analysis on the 2019 KY Derby.
All in post position order.

War of Will ML:15-1
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione Trainer: Mark Casse

Was riding a 3 win streak into the Louisiana Derby, but sadly lost and finished 9th. Has been working very well with 3 bullet works in a row, which shows that he is ready. Is 1-1 on wet and that is good to have experience in the Wet weather that is possible on Saturday.Also is 1-1 at CD. He draws the rail and will have to work from here.
Projected Finish: 8th

Tax ML: 20-1 (same)
Jockey: Junior Alvarado Trainer: Danny Gargan

He has been preparing for this by racing at 1 1/8 3 times in a row. Very nice workout recently at Belmont, which is another who shows that he is ready to roll. He could have been in next week’s G2 Peter Pan at Belmont but Gargan decided to run the $50k sale purchase in the Derby. He could get spooked in this position but looking for a clean break.
Projected Finish: 5th or worse

By My Standards ML: 15-1
Jockey: Gabriel Saez Trainer: Bret Calhoun
Upsetter in the Louisiana Derby at 23-1, where he took a stalking trip and won by a length. He also won 1 race before that and that was when he broke his maiden. The Beyer speed figure he earned in his recent start (97) is good with this group.
Projected Finish: 9th or worse

Gray Magician ML: 50-1 (same)
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke Trainer: Peter Miller

Nearly edged out Plus Que Parfait in the UAE Derby by finishing 2nd. Miller has said this horse has been preparing for this race since he has returned home in California. He is the speedy type and the stalkers choice, when he wants to. I see him contending early and then falling back when they reach the stretch. Still a horse to keep an eye on today.
Projected Finish: 17th

Improbable ML: 5-1
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr Trainer: Bob Baffert

Could not help the sloppy trip he got, since he acted up in the gate prior to the race. Before the Arkansas Derby, he was in great form. Baffert taking the blinkers off and according to the DRF Trainer stats, he is hitting at an alarming rate of 40% with $1.47 ROI. Baffert has won the Derby 5 times and he hopes taking the blinkers off should help him contend here.
Projected Finish: 10th or worse

Vekoma ML: 15-1
Jockey: Javier Castellano Trainer: George Weaver

Staggering over the racetrack in last start, he actually won by 3.5 lengths. Has tons of speed and he was showing it recently with a blowout 5F workout. Has had excellent form and recently raced at 1 1/8 in his last start. I would like to see him close but he is a front runner. Could contend late if Castellano wants him.
Projected Finish: 5th or worse

Maximum Security ML: 8-1
Jockey: Luis Saez Trainer: Jason Servis

Undefeated in 4 career starts. Has hit triple digit Beyer’s in his last 2 starts. Winning the Florida Derby was easy for him as he took off and won handily. Servis has very good trainer stats as he is 33% for 31-60 days off, 36% Won Last Start and also 34% on Dirt according to DRF Trainer stats. I think he is a definite contender and he is the one to beat in this years Derby.
Projected Finish: 1st or at least in the money at most

Tacitus ML: 8-1
Jockey: Jose Ortiz Trainer: Bill Mott

Winner of the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial. This is a horse to contend. Has worked well since coming to Churchill Downs. Also is 1-1 on Wet track, so that is a good sign. Did have trouble in his last 2 in the early stages, but he managed to turn things around heading for home. Good pedigree for this colt and Mott has a perfect horse to be the next Derby winner if Jose can steer him out of the flying mud. In your trifectas and supers.
Projected Finish: 2nd or worse

Plus Que Parfait ML:30-1 (same)
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr Trainer: Brendan Walsh

Ran on well in the last race, as he managed to win the UAE Derby. 2 races before that, he did not contend well in the Risen Star and the LeComte. The Kentucky Jockey Club start was not bad as he was just beaten and was juicy odds at 15-1. With a top Beyer of only 84, this may not be the best place for him here. He would need the same power that he showed in Dubai to show he can win.
Projected Finish: 18th or worse
Cutting Humor ML: 30-1 (same)
Jockey: Corie Lanerie Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Improved his form from his 2nd to last start, after winning the G3 Sunland Derby. A $400,000 purchase, so there is high hopes in these connections. Has been working well for his trainer Pletcher, with 3 bullet works in a row. He has won this race twice and he has good closing speed to contend here but will have to overcome the mud with that 0-1 record.
Projected Finish: 15th or worse

Haikal ML: 30-1 (same)
Jockey: Rajiv Maragh Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin

Winner of the Gotham and finishing 3rd in the Wood Memorial is a good ending to be in this race. Maragh has very good record with him, after winning with him from his maiden, to his Gotham win. Working well in the morning for McLaughlin is a good sound image. Just needed the pace and traffic to work in his favor and he is “off to the races” for a board finish.
Projected Finish: 3rd or worse


#12 OMAHA BEACH IS SCRATCHED AS OF WED NIGHT. #21 IS IN…

Code of Honor ML:12-1
Jockey: John Veleazquez Trainer: Claude McGuaghey/Shug
The only 2 good things about him is his works and his wire-to-wire wins. Did have a good start in the FOY but he is due for trouble if he is not getting is Fountain of Youth pace.
Projected Finish: 11th or worse

Win Win Win ML:12-1
Jockey: Julian Pimentel Trainer: Michael Trombetta

Good places in the Tampa Bay Derby (3rd) and BlueGrass (2nd), so that is a good start. His best Beyer which was 99 is contention with this group. He can do great in speed figures in sprinting, but going 2 turns is yet to crack the 90 mark. Is getting back Pimentel, which he was on for ¾ on wins. He can be in the top 10 if he can close strongly like in the BlueGrass.
Projected Finish: 12th or worse

Master Fencer(JPN) ML:50-1
Jockey: Julian Leparoux Trainer: Koichi Tsunoda

Was easy going 1 1/8 in a few races in Japan, winning 2/3 from that distance. He was the top 2 horses to be entered in this race from overseas and is the best 3yo on the dirt in Japan. But is this enough to beat the best of the best 3yo dirt runners in the States? He is a sit back type horse but Leparoux could let him go when they get around the turn heading for home. Big price. Watch out here if you love these types
Projected Finish: Undecided

Game Winner ML: 9/2 (THE FAVOURITE)
Jockey: Joel Rosario Trainer: Bob Baffert

Superior form in his 6 starts with two close finishes in his last 2 starts. Looks fit and ready for one who is just named the favourite after OMAHA BEACH was scratched. Baffert has won 5 Derby’s and 3 of the last 19 winners were 2yo male of the year. This is one for the public, but is a bit overated for me.
Projected Finish: 7th or possibly higher

Roadster ML: 5-1
Jockey: Florent Geroux Trainer: Bob Baffert

A $525k purchase of Quality Road has been lights out for his form. After the Del Mar Futurity, he had throat surgery and then won 2 races after that. He can contend for this distance, which he had no problem handling the 1 1/8 distance. He has good speed and has worked well since he is working from CA. This post has yet to have a winner but if he does win, he will be the first in history.
Projected Finish: 5th or greater

Long Range Toddy ML:30-1 (same)
Jockey: John Court Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Edged out Improbable to win the G2 Rebel. Has worked well since then. Did not do well in the Arkansas Derby, but does have some speed at this pace scenario. Could be a factor late if the pace holds for him.
Projected Finish: 16th or worse

Spinoff ML:30-1 (same)
Jockey: Manny Franco Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Was looking like the winner of the Derby but was just beat by the closing BY MY STANDARDS. Sire Hard Spun almost won the Derby, but finished 3rd. He does have speed and is in the right direction for his form.
Projected Finish: 15th or worse
____________________________________________________________
1ST: #7 Maximum Security 8-1
2ND: #8 Tacitus 8-1
3RD: #11 Haikal 30-1
4TH: #17 Roadster 5-1
5TH: #6 Vekoma 15-1

$20 W/P/S #7
$2 EXA 7,8/7,8,11,17 or flip
$1 TRI 7,8/7,8,11,17/6,7,8,11,17
$1 SUPER 7,8/7,8,11,17/1,6,7,8,11,12,16,17/1,6,7,8,11,12,16,17



Good luck all playing and may the best horse win!

[Lt1]

11 is scr
Tim