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Old 04-07-2018, 10:32 AM   #1
Jeebs
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Horsetourneys Last Chance Qualifier

Looking to get a spot in the $75K guaranteed game later this afternoon. The Last Chance qualifier is "pick and pray" (no changes to picks once 1st contest race goes off) and if all 120 slots in this feeder fill, HT will award 12 seats to that big game. The races for this feeder are the 1st 3 at both Gulfstream and Keeneland. Get through that mine field and the big contest races revolve around Aqueduct's stakes, Keeneland's stakes and Santa Anita's stakes. And that contest is a live play (change picks on the fly).

Looking at the 1st at Gulf, a horse by the name of Freckle De Freck (#3) intrigues me. Three starts back, this one was fitted with blinkers and obviously didn't take to them, as Marcus Vitali finally took them off last out. The result was improved early speed/position, though the horse did end up fading to last. This one takes a slight drop from the $16k level down to $12.5k and while I don't like taking horses that are 1-for-32 lifetime in these n2L races, and it is 30-1 ML, there are no champions or any horses with real talent in here. The improved speed with the equipment change last out might have this one in good enough shape to take this field all the way, or at least get the place. In a quick 6-race pick-and-pray feeder contest, it often pays to be aggressive early, as one bomb can often be enough, and others can't adjust on the fly. By the same token, aggression can backfire quickly if you dig enough of a hole, especially if a medium priced horse comes in, leaving you $20+ down after just one race.

Another possibility to me as a medium price is the #5 Miss Americain. It looks like a safer bet and ranks well on Rx. I could play that one in the contest and hedge with #3 in the betting pools for insanity insurance.

If anyone has any thoughts about the 1st 3 at Gulf and Keeneland, it would be appreciated!

Last edited by Jeebs; 04-07-2018 at 10:42 AM.
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Old 04-07-2018, 12:23 PM   #2
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Wishing great success Jeebs.


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Old 04-07-2018, 12:57 PM   #3
lostandwon
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Go Jeebs
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Old 04-07-2018, 01:15 PM   #4
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Good luck Tim.
Tim
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Old 04-07-2018, 01:30 PM   #5
Jeebs
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Right church, wrong pew in that Gulfstream race. I did play the #5 for the contest and backed up the #3 with a Win wager. Only problem was that #5 didn't run a lick and #3 came hard late to miss the win. The place price on #3 would have had me in the top half of the contest, but instead, I'm playing from behind, catching seconditis with the place runners in KEE's 1st and GP's 2nd. Still in a decent position, but my compromise borne out of indecision in that opening race may come back to haunt me.
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Old 04-07-2018, 01:48 PM   #6
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Seconditis continues for me at Keeneland and Gulfstream. Came out on the wrong end of a head bob at Keeneland and caught 8-1 to place against a prohibitive chalk at Gulfstream. One bullet remaining in the 3rd at Keeneland, but it looks like I will probably fall just a tad short of my goal. Probably time to focus on the parimutuel big picture for some of the later races today.
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Old 04-07-2018, 01:52 PM   #7
Jeebs
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At the current tote, if my selection #2 wins, I'm probably in, as it will leap frog several players enough to get to my goal.
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Old 04-08-2018, 04:53 AM   #8
Mitch44
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I think luck is an important factor in those contests. The sun shines brighter tomorrow.
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Old 04-08-2018, 11:00 AM   #9
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Jeebs, are you a member of the NHC?

It's only $50 dollars to be a member and there are a bunch of free members only contest to qualify for the big one in Vegas.

It's well worth the money just for the free contest alone.

Mike
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Old 04-08-2018, 12:45 PM   #10
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Hi Mike,
Another free contest is set for April 21st.
This will be the third contest this year.
The NTRA cut down on the spots given from (5) to (3) in each contest.
I was not very pleased with that. The subscriptions they replaced the spots with would be something I could live without.
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