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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 03-31-2014, 12:48 PM   #1
GeorgeC5614
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Segments Screen Question

Hi,

I have just downloaded the trial and was going through some of the sample databases. I was working on Race 2 at Tampa Bay Downs from the April 7th database. I was pretty confident in my pace line choices, and when I got to looking closely at the Segments screen I noticed something that struck me as strange.

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The TS + F3 section showed the order of finish as 7-4-5, but the Lengths/Fin # showed the order of finish as 7-5-4. My question would be why/how are these different, and which should I look at first. The BL/BL showed the 7 (20.5) on top with the 4 (20.0) right behind, and the 5 (19.5) slightly further back.

Thanks
George
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Old 03-31-2014, 01:51 PM   #2
Ted Craven
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Welcome George, and thanks for taking the time to frame your question so clearly!

A little refresher on terminology, and equivalences:

TS = True Speed = Adjusted Speed Rating (ASR) = average velocity from beginning to end of race (i.e. no race segments involved). See TS on the the Velocity (Horse) screen.

CBL Fin. (Computed Beaten Lengths, Final - Segments Screen) = TS True Speed (simply a different way of portraying the gaps; compare the ranks with TS: they're identical )

F3 = Fraction 3 velocity (Velocity screen): velocity of the horse for the race segment between the 2nd call and Final.

TS+F3 = True Speed + Fraction 3 averaged (Segments screen).

BL/BL = the weighted line score or the 7 Primary Factors shown on that screen.

Total Energy (TE) - sum of F1+F2+F3 velocities

Thus, the difference between CBL Final (aka True Speed) and TS+F3 is ... F3! TS+F3 is a weighting of the average race velocity by the 3rd fraction velocity. It shows not only who possesses the ranked faster average velocities (or final time SR) but ALSO who had relatively the better remaining 'gas in the tank' during the important 3rd fraction (which leads to the finish line, after all).

TS (or the Adj SR) alone an be deceiving in that it can be the result of good effort in the early fractions of a race, perhaps against a faster pace than the horse can innately handle (or could handle in that particular race) - but then the horse may perhaps have faded due that fast pace (or return from layoff, or trouble, or whatever). You can see where this may be so by simply analysing on the Velocity screen pacelines for a horse against fast paces with good performance through the 3nd call and poorer performance in F3 and at the finish line.

By adding in F3 to that TS/Final Time - you get the nuance that the horse not only had to be fast (or, faster than its competitors ...) but it had to be so - in the final part of the race, and after having set or kept pace with the others.

Personally, I always favour BL/BL for its weighting of ALL the race segments including compounding such as Hidden, FX and FW - over TS+F3, but I also inspect the WHY, if TS+F3 rank is seriously out of whack with the BL rank.

V/DC however, is the purest expression of remaining energy during F3 (deceleration) relative to how fast the horse was going during the earlier segments of the race, and also blended with the BL score. Probably that just sounded pretty esoteric or mumble-jumble (sorry), but there has been a lot written about it which you can read both on P&C (try the Google Site Search) and in the Follow Up Issues (~ #72 - #74 ??).

So (from my own usage) -

1) BL/BL and V/DC
2) TS+F3
3) Total Energy

Plus - ALWAYS understand when an Early horse, especially with lower TE/BL, etc - will be unopposed (or less opposed) today, OR was compromised by too much early pressure in a past race. Conversely - understand when too many Earlies will vie with each other today and NOT be able to retain the measure of F3 they showed they could run to in their PPs.

George - after you've finished your work on this example race, share with us the Result and mutuels if you would, since you were kind enough to lay out the moving parts of the race on the Segments screen for us, and spark this review. Nice race ...

Again, welcome, along with all questions - it's how we learn!

yours,

Ted
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Old 03-31-2014, 02:25 PM   #3
GeorgeC5614
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Thank you for the very detailed answer. That is what I was looking for, and I still have much reading to do! There is a ton of information to digest. I had actually worked this race through and this is the BL/BL screen I ended up with:

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I had originally like the 7 horse, and the BL score re-enforced what I came up with. My 'paper bet' that I wrote down was 7 W-P-S with 7-4 and 7-5 exactas.

One thing I did change was to use the 4th line for the 7 horse. He had three races since a lay off, two were sprints and the third was a route that looked atypical to his running style. I watched a replay of the race, and it did not look like the jockey ever asked the horse for anything, and had him check for most of the race. That is why I did not use line 2 which would have been the logical pick from a recency stand point.

Here is the results from Equibase.

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Old 03-31-2014, 02:57 PM   #4
Bill V.
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welcome George

Welcome to Pace and Cap

Great work on this race.

To Ted

So if we are using Val 4 mode the little positions of the horses ala Thoromation
are not the VDC ranking like on the Dos version
See my screen -race 6 Parx 3/31/14

The Validator, The IMG and The % of VDC from the best 0.0 are in the same order but not nessacarily the little horses

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Old 06-07-2016, 03:42 PM   #5
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FWIW, I searched for and found this thread, and did my own small experiment. it is Woodbine's 6th race for tomorrow, June 8, 2016. I had selected the first paceline for the 6 horse while working with the Trackmaster MPH Pro program and so I set that paceline in RDSS. I then compared it to paceline 3. Here are the differences, which I find most interesting, along the lines of George's post from two years ago. My thought on choosing the third paceline was to capture the horse's running characteristic at the same distance, rather than its recency, but I see recency as relevant here; paceline 1 was also the selection of RDSS using the Best Perceptor/Last 3 Comparable criteria.
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Old 06-07-2016, 06:19 PM   #6
Ted Craven
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If you are using Perceptor as guidance for line selection, line 3 is clearly best (also best Adjusted SR) within the last 3 (and general recency), thus the one that particular automated procedure selects.

The last line is a good one, though against a slower pace, thus the SR and Perceptor of our horse (who won) was slower. The question is: is the horse capable of running better when fit? Well, yes! It ran 82 Speed Ratings twice in the past year so we know it is capable of that. We know it is fit because it returned from the winter vacation to win at first asking. We know it can win back to back in the same campaign. In its return race, it ran its typical running style against whatever pace it faced (closer) - it's not the horse's fault it didn't have to run faster to get the job done - LOL!

That's why I think it's unfair to use the last line to represent it, and why the 3rd line shows it ranked 1st on TS+F3. Though, for me that alone is not good enough to decide to make it a co-bet, and why I use BLBL and VDC instead. And lately, also consider the Class Rating and CSR to make sure the horse is earning its ratings against relatively higher class company, and has a history of consistency in its SRs.

I like this adage: 'a horse runs as fast as it needs to, not as fast as it can.'

Ted
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Old 06-07-2016, 06:23 PM   #7
Mitch44
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Hi Rievgauche610,

FWIW on the # 6 I would use line 3, I always try to stay within 1/2 furlong of todays distance for a pace line and never more or less than 1F. The reason for that is that different distances change the POR, E.g. in this instance 5 F probably would be run faster than a 6.5 F race. This changes a horses normal deceleration making it greater than at a 6.5 F race.

Also in this case regency isn't an issue for me because he ran very good at 5F
since line 3. I don't know his workouts since then but for myself going back wouldn't be an issue in this case.

Then again there are always the naysayers who will take the contrarian view. Pace line choice is an art and also an individual thing. Only after the race can a right or wrong be
determined. In this case appears that either line won't make any difference because based on "your" data I would get this horse better than fourth. I don't like the 5F line on the 2 either and wouldn't trust any of its ratings or ranking because of that 5F line. With that I'm leery your ranking are correct.

Best of luck,
Mitch44
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Old 06-07-2016, 08:12 PM   #8
Rivegauche610
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This is just an observation not intended to say one is better than the other. I use the Brohamer/Trackmaster MPH Pro system as an adjunct to RDSS. Tonight as I examined tomorrow's 8th at WO I found an interesting discrepancy as to interpretation of identically applied pacelines. First, the MPH Pro screen shot and then the RDSS... I speculate it is because MPH is pure Brohamer inside and out and RDSS is a synthesis of many algorithms and calculations, including velocity.
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Old 06-07-2016, 08:27 PM   #9
Bill V.
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The 6

The 6 is a interesting horse, I would not use line 1 for the same reasons Mitch outlined, The 5 furlong come back race is a good sign, after the long winter layoff, but your looking at some big adjustments with the turn and a longer run down the backstretch in 6.5 and 7 furlong races.
The 6 even with line 3 looks like she is in for a battle with the 5 and 2 who both show better TPR's than horse 6 good rating in line 3 Both the 5 and 2 also look fast early so a 87 EPR needs to maybe be bumped up, I figure about a 91 EPR fulcrum

I am concerned with line 2 It was entered to be claimed at age 3
Line 3 is restricted to 3 year olds, late in the year so the class was a little easier. So line 3 is the line if you are okay with going back over 200 days


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Old 06-08-2016, 09:24 AM   #10
Mitch44
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I agree with Bill on Line 1 for the 2, as a young 3 yr old it should be improving with each race. Its last race showed greater stamina (7F & TPR). It also changed running styles in last as it is learning and to get distances beyond 5F it needs to learn to relax and rate. So the new ESP doesn't worry me.

On the 5 either L1 or 2 would work and my final choice would be dependent on the pace its likely to encounter in this race, which right now I don't have.

Now that leaves the 7 with a 5F line, the reason I didn't mention his 5F line before is he was the best of all the three horses that had 5F lines ,therefore a contender if all 5 F lines were kept, however now that lines have been changed lines on the 2 & 6 the 7's chart need to be revaluated for a line closer to todays dis. of 6.5F. This goes with **** " treating all the horses the same" ***** We can't change the 2 & 6 lines and not consider the 7 for change also.

With all this you can see how critical line choice is. Your final choices and decisions should be interesting.

Good luck,
Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 06-08-2016 at 09:30 AM.
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