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Old 02-26-2019, 12:42 PM   #1
Lt1
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Parx 2-26

TRK FST. PARX has added a new early p4 races 1-4
R1 7216
R2 6257 MDNS
R3 4253
R4 1763 MDNS
R5 1752
R6 5367
R7 6482
R8 5672 LS3
R9 3582
Good Skill To All Playing
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Old 02-26-2019, 03:00 PM   #2
darmar
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Looking for a bomb

Hey Tim good to see you are still on top of the game today
I have a good feeling for the "4" in race 6. Bill V would be all over it.
Lord knows we need a price to come in sooner than later.
Will write you tonight
Darryl
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Old 02-26-2019, 03:09 PM   #3
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Hi Darryl. Yep so far so good again today but we still have 4 to go.
Tim
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Old 02-26-2019, 05:08 PM   #4
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Here's the recap of the races today.This makes 6 winning days in a row

3 #1 picks won $4,$.40,$2.60
1 #2 picks won $14.40
3 #3 picks won $3.80,$7.20,$13.20
2 #4 picks won $11.20,$11
As far as the exotics went the top 4 contained
8dds $119,$26.80,$21.80,$24.20,$24.80,$70.20,$29,$6.80
8 exs$63,$43,$11.40,$11.60,$38,$49.60,$8.60,$4.80
6 tris $47.15,$6.10,$8.25,$37.45,$24.55,$3.10
1 super $24.32
7 p3s $123.10,$10.40,$22.80,$84.80,$62.60,$87.80,18
2 p4s $434.10,$119.15.
For the record I only played wp,dds and exs. Didn't invest in p3s or 4s.
Tim
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Old 02-26-2019, 05:21 PM   #5
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Here are the avg win prices and winning pct off all winners over the last 6 full cards There were a total of 54 races handicapped.

#1 picks won 15 avg wp $5.01 winning %27.7
#2 picks won 11 avg wp $9.53 winning % 20.3
#3 picks won 11 avg wp $10.23 winning % 20.3
#4 picks won 12 avg wp $11.42 winning % 22.2
non top4 won 5 avg wp $26.65 winning % 9.2
Tim
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Old 02-26-2019, 07:55 PM   #6
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Converting Tim's results to EV (expected value), where breakeven is an EV =1:

#1: EV = 0.694
#2: EV = 0.906
#3: EV = 1.038
#4: EV = 1.27

Conclusion: based on this TINY sample size and just betting to win, #3s returned 3.8% and #4s returned 27%. No reason to bet #1s as they are pounded by rebate players. Also illustrates why Sartin pushed users away from betting a program's top 2 choices...Nice work, Tim.

Richard
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Old 02-26-2019, 07:55 PM   #7
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Tim, your like a fine wine the older you get the better you get!

Go get em LT!!

Mike
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Old 02-26-2019, 08:01 PM   #8
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Thanks Richard and Mike. I agree that the #1s are poor win bets however they still be keys to exotic betting.
Tim
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Old 02-26-2019, 08:03 PM   #9
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Hey Mike the key word is older. My old body is beginning to fall apart.LOL
Tim
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Old 02-27-2019, 07:07 AM   #10
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Your correct Tim that winners are the springboard to all exotic bets. Great work and some very nice DD & Ex. You are the President of the Parx bank.


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