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02-26-2019, 12:42 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Parx 2-26
TRK FST. PARX has added a new early p4 races 1-4
R1 7216 R2 6257 MDNS R3 4253 R4 1763 MDNS R5 1752 R6 5367 R7 6482 R8 5672 LS3 R9 3582 Good Skill To All Playing
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02-26-2019, 03:00 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada
Posts: 3,149
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Looking for a bomb
Hey Tim good to see you are still on top of the game today
I have a good feeling for the "4" in race 6. Bill V would be all over it. Lord knows we need a price to come in sooner than later. Will write you tonight Darryl |
02-26-2019, 03:09 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Hi Darryl. Yep so far so good again today but we still have 4 to go.
Tim
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02-26-2019, 05:08 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Here's the recap of the races today.This makes 6 winning days in a row
3 #1 picks won $4,$.40,$2.60 1 #2 picks won $14.40 3 #3 picks won $3.80,$7.20,$13.20 2 #4 picks won $11.20,$11 As far as the exotics went the top 4 contained 8dds $119,$26.80,$21.80,$24.20,$24.80,$70.20,$29,$6.80 8 exs$63,$43,$11.40,$11.60,$38,$49.60,$8.60,$4.80 6 tris $47.15,$6.10,$8.25,$37.45,$24.55,$3.10 1 super $24.32 7 p3s $123.10,$10.40,$22.80,$84.80,$62.60,$87.80,18 2 p4s $434.10,$119.15. For the record I only played wp,dds and exs. Didn't invest in p3s or 4s. Tim
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02-26-2019, 05:21 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Here are the avg win prices and winning pct off all winners over the last 6 full cards There were a total of 54 races handicapped.
#1 picks won 15 avg wp $5.01 winning %27.7 #2 picks won 11 avg wp $9.53 winning % 20.3 #3 picks won 11 avg wp $10.23 winning % 20.3 #4 picks won 12 avg wp $11.42 winning % 22.2 non top4 won 5 avg wp $26.65 winning % 9.2 Tim
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02-26-2019, 07:55 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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Converting Tim's results to EV (expected value), where breakeven is an EV =1:
#1: EV = 0.694 #2: EV = 0.906 #3: EV = 1.038 #4: EV = 1.27 Conclusion: based on this TINY sample size and just betting to win, #3s returned 3.8% and #4s returned 27%. No reason to bet #1s as they are pounded by rebate players. Also illustrates why Sartin pushed users away from betting a program's top 2 choices...Nice work, Tim. Richard |
02-26-2019, 07:55 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
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Tim, your like a fine wine the older you get the better you get!
Go get em LT!! Mike |
02-26-2019, 08:01 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Thanks Richard and Mike. I agree that the #1s are poor win bets however they still be keys to exotic betting.
Tim
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02-26-2019, 08:03 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Hey Mike the key word is older. My old body is beginning to fall apart.LOL
Tim
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02-27-2019, 07:07 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Your correct Tim that winners are the springboard to all exotic bets. Great work and some very nice DD & Ex. You are the President of the Parx bank.
Mitch44 |
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