Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Selections
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Selections Post Your Picks - 1 race or a card

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-09-2020, 04:47 PM   #11
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Stage 1 of my enquiry into Dick's 4 factor method is to get the ranks correct; getting there. Ranks are important to determine how to tier your horizontal wagers according to one's budget. Hence my requests of Dick for ticket structure for various budget levels (e.g. < $50, <$100, >$100), also requests for potential singles.

Stage 2 is to start with how Dick bets horizontals with these numbers (including when to play, when to pass). I will try to suggest actual tickets according to budget. Or, as a post-mortem, what tickets would have to be played on a tiered A-B-C basis in order to hit the actual results. (See first attempt: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...22&postcount=4).

Stage 3 is to improvise according to one's own (e.g. my own) judgement, including rank order, A-B-C tiering decisions, and bet structure.

Maybe along the way I myself will post usable ticket structures in addition to ordered factor ranks, but not right now. Dick is posting some ticket structures in addition to selections, sometimes. (Still keen to know about yesterday at GP 8/8).

I will do my best to document all this in the evolving 4 Factor Documentation thread.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2020, 05:51 PM   #12
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
Ted

Only two races are we different on
R 8 ) 11 is my 3rd choice
R 9 ) the 4horse is my 4 th ranked horse.
These two are the only changes.
Dick
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2020, 07:32 PM   #13
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Results

3. 5-4-3
4. 1-3-7 (Passed)
5. 8-2-9
6. 5-2-3
7. 4-2-10
8. 11-12-6
9. 4-5-6
10. 2-8-3
11. 2-4-1


Summary

3. 3-5-4-6-2
4. PASS 6 FTS
5. 2-7-8-3-6
6. 10-5-4-2-6
7. 6-2-4-7-12
8. 9-1-12-10-11 Missed. (Dick had 9-1-11-?-?)
9. 2-10-8-9-1 Missed (Dick had 2-10-8-4-?)
10. 7-8-3-6-2
11. 9-6-2-7-4
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-09-2020 at 07:36 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2020, 07:47 PM   #14
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Only two races are we different on
R 8 ) 11 is my 3rd choice
R 9 ) the 4 horse is my 4th ranked horse.
These two are the only changes.
Dick
Race 8. Using your #11 as 3rd, I make your selections 9-1-11-?-? (maybe -12-10) instead of my 9-1-12-10-11.

#9 is clearly 1st
I presume you agree with #1 as 2nd with 3/4 factors including a 3 and a 1 - the same 3 and 1 as the #12. If so, why then would #11 rank 3rd over the #12, having no 1s and also only 3/4 factors. I agree the #11 has a 3 PL and 2 BPP but that wasn't enough to rank it 2nd over the #1, and the #12 is almost as good as the #1.

Can you elaborate please on the decision process on the #11. Thanks

__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-09-2020 at 08:01 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-09-2020, 07:57 PM   #15
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by rmath View Post
Only two races are we different on
R 8 ) 11 is my 3rd choice
R 9 ) the 4 horse is my 4th ranked horse.
These two are the only changes.
Dick
Race 9. I make your selections then 2-10-8-4-? (maybe -9 ?) compared to my 2-10-8-9-1.

I used #9 in 4th position because of the 1 ranked CSR, compared to no 1's for the #4. Further, I then rated the #1 as 5th (still ahead of the #4) due to having all 4 factors compared to only 2 factors for the #4 - albeit a 2 and 3 in the PL and BPP columns.

I have to conclude that you rate a 2 and 3 (PL/BPP) ahead of a 3 and 1 in VDC/CSR (i.e. PL and BPP are higher weighted factors than VDC/CSR) -- AND a 2-3 PL/BPP (only 2 factors) outweigh all 4 factors with 4s and 5s.

Am I right about that?

__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-13-2020, 02:07 PM   #16
papajohn3times
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 168
Hi Ted
I agree with Mitch 44. So many people attending Doc Sartin seminars that I was at just wanted either one number to put them in handicapping heaven or just Do it for me please attitudes!

DO THE WORK PEOPLE! NO ONE IS GONNA DO IT FOR YOU!!

OK after that, I do have a question for Ted

Are you doing any handicapping before you run the horses thru RDSS to get your contenders or is it just automatically using preceptor best of last three?
papajohn3times is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2020, 11:36 AM   #17
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
John, for the purposes in this Selection Thread and reporting on Rmath's 4-Factor method, I am doing no other handicapping. Auto-paceline selection using BLT/C (best of Last Three, comparable Distance structure and surface), then figure out the order based on the 4 Factor guidelines.

For my own typical handicapping process, depending on how much time I have, I often double-check the lines selected, making sure a bad line is not reasonably offset by a recent good or at least fairly representative line. I like to see if there is confirmation of the line chosen by BLT/C by other lines in a horse past.

I usually also do a quick Matchup analysis to see if good ranking Early horses are not compromised by other Earlies, and if so which OTEs have solid passing credentials against a like pace scenario.

BUT - because I mainly rely upon Rx3 as my main oddsline, augmented by live odds and tote analysis (PW%), which line gets selected for the ONLY Rx3 component which is paceline-dependent (VDC) tends to have less impact on the final order (unless it's a totally bogus line, which is often clear to a human, if not the software).

Finally - having an ordered Oddsline (Rx3, for me) together with live odds and some interpool relationships, I try to look for a favourite or horse(s) 3-1 or less which might be compromised somehow (which I have discussed elsewhere), to demote from Win. Then pick 2 for Win or 1 if it checks all the boxes, and a collection for Exacta. I have become more interested in the Rmath's 4 Factor method in recent years because I realize the need to bet more on horizontals, where tote analysis is (mostly) unavailable.

99% of the time, I don't change anything from what the software picks for pacelines.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-14-2020, 07:53 PM   #18
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
The 4 Factors were right on again today at GP.
4 p-3s
! p-4
1 P-5 and the pic 6 all were in main contenders.
Rmath
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2020, 09:49 AM   #19
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,042
Nice work Rich.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-15-2020, 10:19 AM   #20
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
Thanks LT1.
Still looking for that article you asked about.

Richie
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:19 AM.