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08-06-2020, 01:03 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Gp 8-6
R5 )A: 4 B: 3-5 C: 2 D: LS 1
R 6 )A: 9 B: 6 C: 5-11 R 7 )A: 3 B: 6 C: 7 D: 5-9 R 8 )A: 1-8 B: 2 C: 7 D LS 3 R 9 )A: 3 B: 9 C: 6-10 R 10 )A: 2-7 B: 6 C: 5 Good Luck Rmath |
08-06-2020, 01:16 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
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Go get them Rich.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
08-06-2020, 02:12 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Good luck Rich! Here are the 4 Factors from these races (below). Everything pretty much lines up. Seems like some subjectivity or nuance as to whether some horses are co-equal A versus A and B, or a C versus a pair of Ds. Unless you'd care to elaborate.
Could you suggest how you would bet these selections in a Pick6 or Pick5, perhaps in 3 Bankroll Categories: 1. up to $25 2. up to $100 3. over $100 Thanks!
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
08-06-2020, 02:12 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Race 10
For example, here is a $0.50 Pick 5 ticket (Races 6-10 representing Columns left to right) costing $41.50 based on 2 As, 2 Bs and 1C (A=Pink, B=Yellow, C=Blue). No Ds The use of the 4 Factors seems to be how you pick among the Contender levels (ABC D?) according to your budget. It also seems, to me, that every co-equal A or B or C (i.e. more than 1 horse in each tier) could be further graded A1, A2, or B1, B2, etc so that - depending on your budget - you might make a A2 into B, or drop all of the Cs or drop a C2, etc Dick, if you care to make any of today's selections more fine-grained for budget level - including any singles, etc, I can generate some resulting tickets to see how to best use the 4 Factors according to one's budget. Thanks. Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-06-2020 at 04:48 PM. Reason: wrong ticket structure for Pick5, wrong picks, wrong cost |
08-06-2020, 03:46 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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GP plays
Ted because the 6th race has 2 FTS horses I personally wait until R 7 and the play small p-3s.
R 7) 3-6 R 8 ) 1-7-8 R 9 ) 3-9 cost 6.00 R 8 ) 1-7-8 r 9) 3-9 R 10 ) 2-6-7 cost 9.00 I try not to play the P-5 or P-6 when there is a Maiden race with two or more unknowns in them. The pic-4 could be played also using the same horses at a cost of 18.00. Rmath |
08-06-2020, 03:59 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Ted, we lost R 7 to a horse that rated 4-2-0-0 and paid 47.60 . With a rating like this it was a longshot play at 20/1 or higher.
I put 1.00 to win and place. Richard. This type of play I never use normally except as a saver bet. |
08-06-2020, 04:12 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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The 8 in race 9 is another longshot play at 20/1
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08-06-2020, 05:24 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Question about race 7:
My settings are the same as recommended; 100% DTV and +/- 20 1st question: Do you accept the RDSS best of three line or do you choose a line that seems more reasonable to you? 2nd question: Do you accept the BPP ranks or do you evaluate the spread of BPP values throughout the field? I used several lines for horse 8. At tracks with a one turn mile distance I don't have a problem using mile lines in races of this length - its still just one turn and there is no need to adjust for a second turn (and its within 1 F of today's distance). Then I look at the internal fractions of the true sprints and the mile races. You can see that the 8 ran almost the same early fractions in its last mile, but an even better 3rd fraction in the mile than in the sprint. The last two sprints by the 8 show improving internals. The Rx+ screen gives the mile race a #1 rating in VDC, so he is 1-2-x-x. The 8 gets a BL/BL rank of 1 with the 3 and 6 immediately following. You can see that I also used the 8 furlong races for two other horses in the race. One of them, the 6 elevates to either an A or a B selection on my screen and the 9 demotes to something less than top 2 One of the things that I like to try to see is how close the BPP ratings are, because if they are close then the relative ranks make less of an impression on me and my handicapping. The 3 and 6 have BPP numbers that slightly gap the field, but the rest of the field is relatively tightly bunched. For instance, the #5 BPP shows as 117.0, the #6 BPP horse (the 5) has 116.2 and the 8 has a BPP of 115.7, so the 3rd through 7th BPP horses are only separated by 2.5 BPP points. I can see from what you have posted about your methodology why this horse would not be a prime choice, but certainly could be a longshot pick. |
08-06-2020, 06:08 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Bill, Q 1: I accept the best of last 3 period; because this is what was requested of me for testing purposes.
Q 2: I accept the rankings as they are: again for testing as requested. By doing things this way everyone should get the same horses as contenders as I do. Also this way I have always gotten 90- 93% of the winners in my preliminary contenders. ( IF IT ISNT BROKE DO NOT TRY TO FIX IT.) as the saying goes. Some of the winners I miss on Profit Line and Prime Power come up as Long Shots on VDC ? CSR. Hope this helps Richard |
08-06-2020, 06:12 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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REsults
Two As One B One C One FTS ans one unlisted Long shot play. One P-3 Overall I made a few dollars. Richard |
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