Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Selections
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Selections Post Your Picks - 1 race or a card

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-06-2020, 01:03 PM   #1
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
Gp 8-6

R5 )A: 4 B: 3-5 C: 2 D: LS 1

R 6 )A: 9 B: 6 C: 5-11

R 7 )A: 3 B: 6 C: 7 D: 5-9

R 8 )A: 1-8 B: 2 C: 7 D LS 3

R 9 )A: 3 B: 9 C: 6-10

R 10 )A: 2-7 B: 6 C: 5

Good Luck
Rmath
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 01:16 PM   #2
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,041
Go get them Rich.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 02:12 PM   #3
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Good luck Rich! Here are the 4 Factors from these races (below). Everything pretty much lines up. Seems like some subjectivity or nuance as to whether some horses are co-equal A versus A and B, or a C versus a pair of Ds. Unless you'd care to elaborate.

Could you suggest how you would bet these selections in a Pick6 or Pick5, perhaps in 3 Bankroll Categories:

1. up to $25
2. up to $100
3. over $100

Thanks!

Name:  GP0806.R5.png
Views: 280
Size:  40.6 KB

Name:  GP0806.R6.png
Views: 269
Size:  53.4 KB

Name:  GP0806.R7.png
Views: 255
Size:  42.9 KB

Name:  GP0806.R8.png
Views: 239
Size:  38.4 KB

Name:  GP0806.R9.png
Views: 263
Size:  38.1 KB
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 02:12 PM   #4
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Race 10

Name:  GP0806.R10.png
Views: 278
Size:  43.5 KB

For example, here is a $0.50 Pick 5 ticket (Races 6-10 representing Columns left to right) costing $41.50 based on 2 As, 2 Bs and 1C (A=Pink, B=Yellow, C=Blue). No Ds

Name:  GP0806.P5.png
Views: 259
Size:  37.7 KB

The use of the 4 Factors seems to be how you pick among the Contender levels (ABC D?) according to your budget. It also seems, to me, that every co-equal A or B or C (i.e. more than 1 horse in each tier) could be further graded A1, A2, or B1, B2, etc so that - depending on your budget - you might make a A2 into B, or drop all of the Cs or drop a C2, etc

Dick, if you care to make any of today's selections more fine-grained for budget level - including any singles, etc, I can generate some resulting tickets to see how to best use the 4 Factors according to one's budget.

Thanks.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 08-06-2020 at 04:48 PM. Reason: wrong ticket structure for Pick5, wrong picks, wrong cost
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 03:46 PM   #5
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
GP plays

Ted because the 6th race has 2 FTS horses I personally wait until R 7 and the play small p-3s.

R 7) 3-6
R 8 ) 1-7-8
R 9 ) 3-9
cost 6.00
R 8 ) 1-7-8
r 9) 3-9
R 10 ) 2-6-7
cost 9.00

I try not to play the P-5 or P-6 when there is a Maiden race with two or more unknowns in them.
The pic-4 could be played also using the same horses at a cost of 18.00.

Rmath
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 03:59 PM   #6
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
Ted, we lost R 7 to a horse that rated 4-2-0-0 and paid 47.60 . With a rating like this it was a longshot play at 20/1 or higher.
I put 1.00 to win and place.
Richard.

This type of play I never use normally except as a saver bet.
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 04:12 PM   #7
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
The 8 in race 9 is another longshot play at 20/1
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 05:24 PM   #8
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
Question about race 7:

My settings are the same as recommended; 100% DTV and +/- 20

1st question: Do you accept the RDSS best of three line or do you choose a line that seems more reasonable to you?

2nd question: Do you accept the BPP ranks or do you evaluate the spread of BPP values throughout the field?

I used several lines for horse 8. At tracks with a one turn mile distance I don't have a problem using mile lines in races of this length - its still just one turn and there is no need to adjust for a second turn (and its within 1 F of today's distance). Then I look at the internal fractions of the true sprints and the mile races. You can see that the 8 ran almost the same early fractions in its last mile, but an even better 3rd fraction in the mile than in the sprint. The last two sprints by the 8 show improving internals.

The Rx+ screen gives the mile race a #1 rating in VDC, so he is 1-2-x-x. The 8 gets a BL/BL rank of 1 with the 3 and 6 immediately following. You can see that I also used the 8 furlong races for two other horses in the race. One of them, the 6 elevates to either an A or a B selection on my screen and the 9 demotes to something less than top 2

One of the things that I like to try to see is how close the BPP ratings are, because if they are close then the relative ranks make less of an impression on me and my handicapping. The 3 and 6 have BPP numbers that slightly gap the field, but the rest of the field is relatively tightly bunched. For instance, the #5 BPP shows as 117.0, the #6 BPP horse (the 5) has 116.2 and the 8 has a BPP of 115.7, so the 3rd through 7th BPP horses are only separated by 2.5 BPP points.

I can see from what you have posted about your methodology why this horse would not be a prime choice, but certainly could be a longshot pick.

Name:  ScreenHunter_1221 Aug. 06 13.40.jpg
Views: 200
Size:  63.0 KB

Name:  ScreenHunter_1222 Aug. 06 13.41.jpg
Views: 221
Size:  151.9 KB

Name:  ScreenHunter_1223 Aug. 06 13.51.jpg
Views: 219
Size:  90.1 KB
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 06:08 PM   #9
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
Bill, Q 1: I accept the best of last 3 period; because this is what was requested of me for testing purposes.
Q 2: I accept the rankings as they are: again for testing as requested.

By doing things this way everyone should get the same horses as contenders as I do.
Also this way I have always gotten 90- 93% of the winners in my preliminary contenders. ( IF IT ISNT BROKE DO NOT TRY TO FIX IT.) as the saying goes.
Some of the winners I miss on Profit Line and Prime Power come up as Long Shots on VDC ? CSR.

Hope this helps
Richard
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-06-2020, 06:12 PM   #10
rmath
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
REsults
Two As
One B
One C
One FTS ans one unlisted Long shot play.
One P-3
Overall I made a few dollars.

Richard
rmath is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:00 PM.