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Old 12-04-2021, 03:09 PM   #41
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Dick

Thanks. Appreciate what you are doing here.

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Old 12-08-2021, 10:55 AM   #42
Bill Lyster
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Dick,

I wanted to ask your opinion concerning pace pressure, but not just EARLY pace pressure which leads to OTE outcomes. We often see one E type with varying numbers of Quirin speed pts and then a glut of P1s. Using the Segments screen you can often see this second tier of pressers fighting just like Early horses for the mid pack positions. If the F1 and 2nd call numbers are close, it looks like a way to toss them in favor of deeper closing types. Wondering if you have noticed the same?

Also, something came up this week redoing last weeks races while trying to educate myself to your methods. I have seen several 0-0 and even 0-0-0 horses on the Segments screen, but with the worst Vdc of any of my contenders. I have yet to see one of those horses win, however, a few have hit the board in other places. Previously, I had considered these dominant early types to be golden, but I have modified that view in light of recent observations.

Many thanks for your thoughts on these subjects.

Bill
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Old 12-11-2021, 01:52 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Dick,

I wanted to ask your opinion concerning pace pressure, but not just EARLY pace pressure which leads to OTE outcomes. We often see one E type with varying numbers of Quirin speed pts and then a glut of P1s. Using the Segments screen you can often see this second tier of pressers fighting just like Early horses for the mid pack positions. If the F1 and 2nd call numbers are close, it looks like a way to toss them in favor of deeper closing types. Wondering if you have noticed the same?

Also, something came up this week redoing last weeks races while trying to educate myself to your methods. I have seen several 0-0 and even 0-0-0 horses on the Segments screen, but with the worst Vdc of any of my contenders. I have yet to see one of those horses win, however, a few have hit the board in other places. Previously, I had considered these dominant early types to be golden, but I have modified that view in light of recent observations.

Many thanks for your thoughts on these subjects.

Bill
Bill,
Sorry it took me a couple of days to get back to you.
I have been recording the Early Speed Points and then comparing how the race actually shapes up and what shape best predicts the outcome trying to answer the same question you are asking. It appears to me that 3-10 ESPs tends to result in an Early race, 11-13 tend to be Early or Neutral (ie Total Pace Rating), 14-18 tend to be Neutral (Total Pace) 18-20 tend to be Late Races (LPR) and 21+ tend to be Heavy Pressure. While not 100% these guidelines give me a place to start with my analysis. One has to modify a bit, I think, based on how many of each Running Style and Energy expenditure one finds in the analysis. There is a little more art here than exact science that I would wish for but after practice, I think one gets a better sense on how to call the race shape. And that I believe is a critical decision in getting the race right. The problem is best summed up by something a friend of mine once said, "It is kinda like measuring with a micrometer and cutting with a chain saw!"

Happy Handicapping!

Dick
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Old 12-11-2021, 08:43 PM   #44
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Bill,
Sorry it took me a couple of days to get back to you.
I have been recording the Early Speed Points and then comparing how the race actually shapes up and what shape best predicts the outcome trying to answer the same question you are asking. It appears to me that 3-10 ESPs tends to result in an Early race, 11-13 tend to be Early or Neutral (ie Total Pace Rating), 14-18 tend to be Neutral (Total Pace) 18-20 tend to be Late Races (LPR) and 21+ tend to be Heavy Pressure. While not 100% these guidelines give me a place to start with my analysis. One has to modify a bit, I think, based on how many of each Running Style and Energy expenditure one finds in the analysis. There is a little more art here than exact science that I would wish for but after practice, I think one gets a better sense on how to call the race shape. And that I believe is a critical decision in getting the race right. The problem is best summed up by something a friend of mine once said, "It is kinda like measuring with a micrometer and cutting with a chain saw!"

Happy Handicapping!

Dick
Thanks Dick, but I am confused or maybe I was behind the door when you first explained some of this.

Which horses get counted when you speak of Quirin speed pts and how many horses get counted? Do you count the horses with the most points? the top three and ties (if any) or the top (?) horses shown on the Velocity screen, or the top (#?) of horses when you sort the horses on the Velocity screen by running style, or the top (#?) horse when you sort by ESP?

As it relates to my questions in my previous post, I will try to find some examples to illustrate the issues that I brought up.

Thanks for your response.
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Old 12-11-2021, 10:32 PM   #45
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Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Thanks Dick, but I am confused or maybe I was behind the door when you first explained some of this.

Which horses get counted when you speak of Quirin speed pts and how many horses get counted? Do you count the horses with the most points? the top three and ties (if any) or the top (?) horses shown on the Velocity screen, or the top (#?) of horses when you sort the horses on the Velocity screen by running style, or the top (#?) horse when you sort by ESP?

As it relates to my questions in my previous post, I will try to find some examples to illustrate the issues that I brought up.

Thanks for your response.
Bill,
Early Speed Points are calculated by the method below. You rate the race off of the highest 3 speed point horses. Our RDSS program calculates all of that for you. The one caveat is check to make sure that all horses have at least 3 lines. Maidens with less than 3 lines get a number but it is a projection that can be misleading.
So we rate the race off of the 3 highest horses and apply my "sort of " standards that I wrote about above. If there are horses beyond our top three that can lend to the pressure we note that but we still rate the race from the top 3.

Hope this helps,

Dick

Here is how the Points are calculated:
How to use Quirin Speed Points to Determine the Speed of a Race

Speed points are calculated using three representative races from the last five races in a horse’s past performances, preferably races that are at today’s distance.

How to Calculate Quirin Speed Points for Sprint Races

Note: Before any calculations, each horse in the race is awarded 1 speed point

From the three representative running lines you have selected for each horse:

1. Award 1 point for each sprint in which the horse was first, second or third at the first call.
2. Award 1 point for each sprint in which the horse was within 2 lengths of the leader at the first call. (Note: A horse can get a speed point for being first second or third at the first call AND a point for being within 2 lengths at the first call – for a maximum of two points per race.)
3. Award 0 points for any other sprint performance.
4. Award 0 points for any route performance, unless the horse was within 1 length of the lead at the first call. In this case, the race should NOT be used in the calculations at all.
5. Note: In seven furlong races, a horse can only receive 2 speed points if it led at the first call. Award only 1 point if the horse was second or third at the first call or was within 2 lengths at the first call.
6. Total up the points for each horse and add them to the 1 point the horse started with.
7. Award 1 bonus point if a horse was within a neck of the leader in each rated race.
8. Each horse will now have a total of 1-8 speed points. Write this number beside the horse in the past performances.

How to Calculate Quirin Speed Points for Route Races

Note: Before any calculations, each horse in the race is awarded 1 speed point.

1. Award 1 point for each route race in which the horses was first, second or third at the first call.
2. Award 1 point for each route race in which the horse was within 3 lengths of the leader at the first call. (Note: A horse can get a speed point for being first, second or third at the first call AND a point for being within 2 lengths at the first call – for a maximum of two points per race.)
3. Award 0 points for any other route performance.
4. Award 1 point for any sprint race in which the horse was first, second or third at the first call, or was within 3 lengths of the leader at the first call.
5. Add 1 point for any sprint in which the horses was within six lengths at the first call.
6. When calculating speed points for routes, do not use sprints where the horse was not first, second or third at the first call, or was not within 6 lengths of the leader at the first call. Go back as many as five races to find a more representative race.
7. Award 1 bonus point if a horse was on the lead or within a length of the leader at the first call in each of its rated races.
8. Each horse will now have a total of 1-8 speed points. Write this number beside the horse in the past performances.

How to Interpret Quirin Speed Points

Horses with 0-3 points have poor early speed. Horses with 4 speed points have some early speed.
Horses with 5-6 points have good early speed. Horses with 7-8 points have high early speed.

In general, a horse with 4 speed points is likely going to be among the early leaders and horses with a minimum of 4 speed points that also have the highest speed points in the race will win often enough to produce a small but positive ROI. Horses with at least 5 speed points that are also at least 2 points ahead of their nearest rivals will produce an even greater ROI. Horses with 8 speed points are very likely to either lead or battle for the lead. If one horse receives 8 points and no horses receive 6-7 points, the 8 horse has a very good chance of opening up early and going all the way. In the presence of 6-7 point horses there is a good chance the 8 point horse will get some early pressure and might even be forced to battle for the lead.

In races with two high speed points horses you can generally expect a reasonably fast and/or pressured pace. In races with three or more high speed points horses you are almost assured of a pressured pace or duel that can set the race up for come from behind types. The come from behind types with the best chance of winning these types of races must be able to stay within striking range however. Horses with 0-3 speed points that cannot get within striking range at the second call will have little chance to win, but can be used underneath in the exotics. The exceptions would be turf races or races run over tiring surfaces, both of which often favor come from behind runners.

Most importantly, always make sure to check all high speed points horses to see if they are need-the-lead types. Look at their past performances to see what happens when they don’t get the lead. If they never win without the lead, and they don’t figure to get the lead in today’s race, they can probably be thrown out with confidence.

With a little practice using Quirin Speed Points, you’ll find that you can quickly and easily find the speed in any race and predict how a race will set up in advance. The application of fractional times, jockey changes, trainer patterns and equipment changes, to the data provided by the Quirin Speed Points, can provide you with even more insights - and some excellent betting opportunities!

Good luck!
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Old 12-11-2021, 10:40 PM   #46
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OKay, that helps a lot.

Many thanks,
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Old 12-12-2021, 12:20 AM   #47
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OKay, that helps a lot.

Many thanks,
I am asking myself some of the same questions you have posed. I do find it helpful to look at pace from as many different views as possible to try to make sure I am not deceiving myself with a value that is not consistent with the other values. So, I recommend to look at EP, LP, QSP, running style and ESP, as well as any other pace comparisons one might have available (such as the RDSS sticks). As Dick said, there's still some inexactitude in place, but I seem to be slowly improving through this diverse look at the values and taking into consideration non-pace factors such as CSR, class and Bris Power and how those might impact the pace scenario. But, I still feel a long way from "home". Just sharing my journey, really.

Last edited by ranchwest; 12-12-2021 at 12:23 AM.
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