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Breeders' Cup 2013 - SATURDAY Nov. 2 Bets, Analysis, Discussion, News |
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11-02-2013, 01:56 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Today ...
I'm proceeding with a lot of caution today, using at most half my normal wager unit - enjoying watching races if there's too much unclarity in any of them (which there is in a lot of them!)
The best opinion I have in any race so far, besides Wise Dan in the Mile, is in the Downhill Turf Sprint: #3 Chips All In and #12 Mizdirection Re 'early bias' on dirt - I have to believe that the matchup of Earlies/Fighters and Pressers/Late horses in any race has at least as much impact on the outcome as any sudden weather or track maintenance issues. Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
11-02-2013, 02:03 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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One race does not confirm anything, but the first dirt race today (#2) using Bill L's described E/ep analysis (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...newpost&t=9480) rates the winner well (on top), as does the traditional Best of Last 3 comparable (only 4 real contenders, though ...)
I'll check things as they go, out of curiosity ... Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
11-02-2013, 02:15 PM | #3 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Race 3
#1 shows some possibility as an overlay. I required (as for all the downhill Turf course sprints) that the contenders have shown some affinity for this particular, peculiar, surface, and in a decent time. If so, I'm happy to seek a better line (i.e. in case their 6.5T line was against a slow pace).
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
11-02-2013, 03:06 PM | #4 |
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Join Date: Nov 2011
Location: New-York, NY
Posts: 129
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Ted...Good job at Santa Anita today! Too bad I didn't see your posts earlier, otherwise I would have thrown a few bucks on your selections. Keep it up!
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Paul |
11-02-2013, 03:38 PM | #5 | |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Quote:
I didn't win anything yet! Small WP bet on the #1 in the 3rd. I did not bet the 4th race - a good thing, since I had the 7-1-10. cheers, Ted
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
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11-02-2013, 03:44 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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For the record, here are the picks for the BC races today I posted in the PaceAdvantage BC Contest.
I reserve the right to be more selective/creative - or change my mind completely (This was a Win only contest totally $10 per race). SA4 --> $4 Win 7-10 --> $2 Win 1 SA5 --> $4 Win 2 --> $3 Win 1-3 SA6 --> $4 Win 9-11 --> $2 Win 3 SA7 --> $4 Win 3-12 --> $2 Win 14 SA8 --> $5 Win 13-14 SA9 --> $4 Win 12 --> $3 Win 7-8 SA10 --> $5 Win 1-6 SA11 --> $10 Win 8 SA12 --> $4 Win 7 --> $3 Win 2-10 .
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RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ |
11-02-2013, 02:57 PM | #7 |
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Join Date: May 2013
Location: NY
Posts: 455
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Hey Ted. Good luck out there!
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11-02-2013, 03:03 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2013
Location: NY
Posts: 455
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In the 4th. The 1 will be my key horse. Will mostly bet the 1,10 to win
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11-02-2013, 03:31 PM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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11-02-2013, 03:10 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: England
Posts: 489
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Wow, what a finish to the 4th!
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