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09-03-2018, 07:32 PM | #1 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 11
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Race 1 -- Happy Valley 5th September 2018
Attached is the Pace Array for Race 1 -- Happy Valley 5th September 2018.
Inviting experienced forum members to help with the analysis. I have included the Track Profile and the Decision Model also. |
09-04-2018, 06:48 PM | #2 |
always learning
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: Minneapolis / Rancho Santa Fe
Posts: 277
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Is this Happy Valley in Hong Kong ?
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09-04-2018, 07:06 PM | #3 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 11
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Yes.
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09-05-2018, 11:25 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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PPs
Is there a site where we can access the PPs?
rmath |
09-05-2018, 12:39 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,042
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Rich I believe Twin Spires may have them. I the track listed in the Handicapping section.
Tim
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Trust but verify |
09-05-2018, 01:54 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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Re: Decision Model - Is the model based on races where you included the entire field? Or is it based on what you felt were the "true" contenders only? I ask because you can muddy the waters by including the non-contenders as part of your mix, which will throw your model numbers askew. By narrowing down to anywhere from 3-5 "true" contenders (may vary race by race), you remove a lot of the "noise" from your readouts.
Another question - Have you considered "tiering" your contenders based on the line score of the factors you choose to rate (I see you're using Phase III methodology, aka the compounded ratings which inspired Tom Brohamer's Modern Pace Handicapping), and doing a "wagercapping" type strategy of letting the odds determining your wagers in a given race? There is a ton of literature about wagercapping (Ted posted several excerpts from the old Follow-Up journals featuring a Sartin client known as "The Capper") that may enlighten you. Best of luck in your wagering endeavors. |
09-05-2018, 04:26 PM | #7 |
AlwNW1X
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 11
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Hi Jeebs,
I appreciate your answer and your guidance truly. You are correct -- I am using Tom Brohamer's book (Modern Pace Handicapping) as a basis for my work on pace. The 2018-19 Hong Kong season started this past weekend and I just started actively handicapping this season (using a combination of Speed Ratings and Trackwork). As far as pace goes, I am accurately calculating the pace array -- but this array has almost no value pending an accurate Decision Model. I have started with just a placeholder Decision Model. Right now, it is far from accurate. I created the Decision Model from the 2017-18 season which concluded in July, 2018. I had not handicapped that season, so I created the Decision Model by using averages for all races for that course and distance. This also suffered from using all the runners in the race (average 13) and not just the true contenders. As you point out, this has muddied the waters and thrown my numbers on the higher side. Also, since I did not handicap the real contenders, I had my program simply pick the last race as the paceline. I will look at the material you suggested related to "tiering" contenders based on the line score of the factors I choose. I similarly based my Track Profile on the 2017-18 season. I believe that the Position and Lengths for the First Call and Second Call should be usable. The Percent Early Average and Upper and Lower Range also suffer from the default selection of the last race for the paceline. Again, I truly appreciate your insights and any other advice that the more eperienced forum members could provide me. --Sohil Patel |
09-05-2018, 04:51 PM | #8 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
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My two cents in BOLD
Quote:
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09-05-2018, 05:52 PM | #9 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Sohil,
I worked Hong Kong Happy Valley this morning, all 8 races. For Race 1 I came up with 1-9-4-2 at 0 MTP when the red light started flashing (about 1 minute to go). Again, my analysis is based on tote price movement and pool relationships. Part of my problem is waiting too late to get all bets down. I got a Quinella down but got shut out placing my dutched Win bet on 9-1-4 The result was 9-2-1-8 (http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/info/m.../20180905/HV/1), good enough for a Quinella (and Tri) - but only if you actually place the bets As I mentioned elsewhere, right now I am working HK 2 days a week because I think I have a reasonable enough tote-only method and don't have the time right now to work with a whole other set of differently formatted PP data than what we use in North America. But I heartily encourage you and anyone else to try your hand at it with Sartin Methods! FWIW, HK$ 88,580,604 was bet on this one race, or US$ 11,515,478. My modest bets do not affect the odds (nor do US$100,000 bets ...) Ted
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