Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Races of Interest
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-06-2016, 11:18 AM   #1
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Kentucky Oaks Day

I am tracking the new RDSS 2.1 - Rx screen, rank and Oddsline for today's races at Churchill Downs (sometimes in advance ...). The Paceline selection and Contender separation process is almost entirely automated (or at least, quite rigorous and defensible on request). Betting decisions and possibilities are myriad, and up to the user. Starting to use the tote, after these first 2.

Name:  CD0506-1.png
Views: 659
Size:  130.5 KB

Name:  CD0506-2.png
Views: 665
Size:  132.5 KB

Name:  CD0506-3.png
Views: 660
Size:  145.0 KB

Name:  CD0506-4.png
Views: 652
Size:  151.7 KB
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-06-2016 at 12:26 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2016, 11:40 AM   #2
Latekick
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Posts: 389
This should be fun, i'll be following along. Sometimes the automated lines can be changed a bit and i usually do some moving around and changing after the program selects the lines, but i think that everyone is different so doing it the way you are doing it here is most effective. Looking forward to how this Rx and new program perform today.
Latekick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2016, 12:28 PM   #3
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Pretty icky chalk so far, though Rx=1 is 4/4 so far. Exacta part wheels of Rx=1 / Rx=2,3,4 has 2 hits so far and is nicely ahead.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-06-2016 at 12:35 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2016, 12:33 PM   #4
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Latekick View Post
This should be fun, i'll be following along. Sometimes the automated lines can be changed a bit and i usually do some moving around and changing after the program selects the lines, but i think that everyone is different so doing it the way you are doing it here is most effective. Looking forward to how this Rx and new program perform today.
Indeed, Grant. I'm not saying I never change pacelines - I do (for better and for worse - LOL!). I have been studying what possibilities exist from simply and rigorously following an (almost) automated procedure. This arose over the past year or so, by my and a few others' observations that sometimes when I modify chosen pacelines, I catch a better bet - AND, sometimes I miss a better bet . What happens if I stay rigorous, even if the program drops a blooper sometimes? What happens over a hundred races ...

Let's see.

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2016, 12:41 PM   #5
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
CD Race 5 Maiden Allowance.

I'm requiring my Win Contenders to have a CSR <= 5

Name:  CD0506-5.png
Views: 622
Size:  205.6 KB

#8 looks good on most markers, especially tote. Also the #2
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-06-2016 at 12:44 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2016, 01:03 PM   #6
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
CD Race 5

I will allow that the CSR <= 5 rating is probably less effective in lightly raced Maidens, where the composition of it is based on few numbers.

Here is the Top 5 rated, at the final. Also, a reliable approach of requiring a Turf line for winning a Turf race probably gets more winners (and eliminates more non-winners) than not - see the #6 horse who had no Turf lines in its 5 starts, and could probably have been designated a non-Win Contender.

Name:  CD0506-5a.png
Views: 612
Size:  166.2 KB
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-06-2016 at 01:05 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2016, 01:25 PM   #7
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
CD Race 6

The top 2 just look great. In an otherwise unbettable race, I would hedge the #2 at EVEN odds (i.e. to break-even) and go for 7/4 odds on the #1 who looks great in her return from a layoff, and has won previously from similar.

Win Bet #1 and #2, equal units. Exacta Box on 2-1-5

Name:  CD0506-6.png
Views: 596
Size:  157.5 KB
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-06-2016 at 01:27 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2016, 01:36 PM   #8
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
CD Race 6

Won the Win bet, lost the Exacta.

Name:  CD0506-6a.png
Views: 579
Size:  128.6 KB
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™

Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-06-2016 at 01:46 PM.
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2016, 01:46 PM   #9
Drew42e
Maiden
 
Join Date: May 2016
Posts: 3
Just found this site and methodology yesterday (and registered) so trying to get my brain around it, and the info and the software, but I am appreciative of your analysis here if only to get an understanding of your philosophy which brings me to a question. I understand the Doc philosophy of betting top 2 horses, but would that still hold with one of them at 4/5 like this most recent race?

Thanks and i'm excited to learn from everyone here.
Drew42e is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2016, 01:59 PM   #10
Ted Craven
Grade 1
 
Ted Craven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
Quote:
Originally Posted by Drew42e View Post
Just found this site and methodology yesterday (and registered) so trying to get my brain around it, and the info and the software, but I am appreciative of your analysis here if only to get an understanding of your philosophy which brings me to a question. I understand the Doc philosophy of betting top 2 horses, but would that still hold with one of them at 4/5 like this most recent race?

Thanks and i'm excited to learn from everyone here.
Hi Drew, welcome to the neighbourhood!

I try not to be dogmatic about 2 horse wagering I try to make money, not pick horses. I would have liked to single one of the Top 2 horses in the 6th race, but I could not separate them except on Odds. Thus, the hedge strategy (as odds dropped on the #2, I would have had to pay a bit of 'insurance' if the #2 had won).

But the hedge worked anyway: consider $50 bet on BOTH #1 and #2 (the 'equal units' referred to). $100 bet, $165 returned on the #1, or - $90 returned ($3.80) if the #2 won, or an insurance cost of $10 or 10%. It depends on a fairly good hit rate to take combo wagers of that low odds.

I'm just trying to see how effective a semi-automated method is. If you are looking in on things to learn more about the Sartin Methodology in action, there are a WHOLE lot more ways of approaching analysis and wagering than presented here. Consider this thread as an experiment, if you will. Hopefully lots of other analysis today elsewhere, or for tomorrow.

Good luck!

Ted
__________________

R
DSS -
Racing Decision Support System™
Ted Craven is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Kentucky Oaks PPs - May 1 mowens33 Matchup Discussion 0 04-29-2015 08:35 AM
Grace Hall 5-2 favorite for the Kentucky Oaks alydar_ David General Discussion 0 05-02-2012 09:31 AM
Kentucky Oaks - Race 11 - Friday Ted Craven Kentucky Derby Weekend & Cheering on the RDSS Teams in the P.A.I.H.L. Contest Finale 4 05-06-2011 06:20 PM
Kentucky Oaks 2010 Ted Craven Races of Interest 7 04-30-2010 07:30 PM
Kentucky Oaks card available now RichieP RDSS 0 04-29-2009 03:23 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:15 AM.