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07-01-2016, 06:08 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Hit a good one today.
I was going to Tampa Bay today because I had a ticket I needed to cash for $66 and change from back in March when I bet race #13 and left after the bigger races.
It was an ugly card today and one which I would have passed otherwise. My brother backed out of going because he likes good horses and follows bloodlines. Therefore I just stayed home and bet it on my Twinspires account. I threw my normal techniques out and looked for longshots as these races were all cheap Md. Clm. , MSW and mostly turf. Even the two dirt races were clm. 10,000 NW 2 ,3 etc. They ran at Tampa the last two days to qualify for their simulcasting license for the rest of the year. I did do all the races in RDSS to look for gaps and horses I could key with my longshot picks. Played them for win, hooked them up for DD and played some EX. It ended up working out great as you can see below: Hit a nice one in the 2nd at Tampa Bay: # 3 paid $ 104.40, also had the DD 1 & 2 race and 2nd & 3rd race. COMPLETED: 2e1b5-2bcf5 TAM #2 $2 Double 3, 8, WT, 2, 3, 6 none $12.00 $321.00 + $309.00 Note: the favorite won the 2nd leg here of the DD and it still paid good. COMPLETED: 5f249-a510b TAM #2 $5 Win 3, 8 none $10.00 $261.00 + $251.00 COMPLETED: cb658-3811a TAM #1 $1 Double 5, 6, WT, 3, 8 none $4.00 $144.60 + $140.60 The lesson to take away here is once you make a decision stick to it regardless of odds. Also do a complete analysis of each horse. Normally I do a complete analysis of my contenders and any horse that won its last race. In these cheap races it pays to do an analysis of every horse in the race, especially if your playing a DD, P-3 etc. Tracks somehow have a way of sandwiching these type races in between other good races all the time. Also because these aren't going to win on a high percentage you need to lower your bets and outlay, plus the payoffs are greater so you can get a lot for little. Good luck, Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 07-01-2016 at 06:12 PM. |
07-02-2016, 01:11 PM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Nice for sure
Wow Mitch
Very good news from you ! I worked the race after I saw your post, Unfortunately, I would have needed a little more supporting readouts for #3 Top 5 after hides but I would have missed, Happy for you though GS Bill my readouts .. My contenders lines Code:
TAM0701 2 8.0 T CL 3+ $13,200 CP=$10,000 12:55PM PACELINE DATA # PN NAME LdNT 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR TRKDISTS 1 2 BO'S 5 47.2 112.0 137.2 10.70 4.70 2.10 3.00 76 TAM 8.0T 2 3 TOCO 5 48.4 112.8 138.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 75 DEL 8.0T 3 4 ROYAL1 47.5 112.3 137.6 3.00 2.10 2.00 0.50 76 TAM 8.0T 4 5 STEP 3 47.2 111.7 137.6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 77 TAM 8.0T 5 6 REGAL2 49.5 112.7 137.1 3.50 2.70 2.10 1.10 78 GP 8.0T 6 8 IMPER3 47.0 111.8 137.1 4.70 2.60 4.50 3.00 76 TAM 8.0T Code:
│ PRIMARY FACTORS │ │SUPP│ ┌─┬───────────┬───┬────────┐ ├───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬─┤ ├──┬─┤ │#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│ Total R│ │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│ HE│ FW│ FX│ │LS│R│ │LS│R│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤ ├──┼─┤ ├──┼─┤ │1│ 2 BO'S 5 │ 76│160.96-3│ │ 4│ 2│ 3│ 2│ 2│ 2│ 5│ │20│3│ │16│4│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤ ├──┼─┤ ├──┼─┤ │2│ 3 TOCO 5 │ 75│160.95-4│ │ 3│ 4│ 4│ 4│ 4│ 5│ 4│ │28│5│ │24│5│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤ ├──┼─┤ ├──┼─┤ │3│ 4 ROYAL1 │ 76│160.87-5│ │ 2│ 3│ 2│ 5│ 3│ 3│ 1│ │19│2│ │13│2│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤ ├──┼─┤ ├──┼─┤ │4│ 6 REGAL2 │ 78│164.16-1│ │ 5│ 1│ 1│ 1│ 1│ 1│ 3│ │13│1│ │ 7│1│ ├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤ ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤ ├──┼─┤ ├──┼─┤ │5│ 8 IMPER3 │ 76│161.05-2│ │ 1│ 5│ 2│ 3│ 5│ 4│ 2│ │22│4│ │15│3│ └─┴───────────┴───┴────────┘ └───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴─┘ └──┴─┘ Code:
TAM0701 2 8.0 T CL 3+ $13,200 CP=$10,000 12:55PM INCREMENTAL MATCH-UP GRAPH (VAL4) ┌───────────┬────────────────────┬─────────────────────┬──────────────────────┐ │# PNcNAME L│ 1F │ 2F │ 3F+TOTAL PACE │ ├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│ │1 2 BO'S 5│ 4-> │ 2-> │ 2-> │ ├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│ │2 3 TOCO 5│ 3-> │ 3-> │ 5-> │ ├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│ │3 4 ROYAL1│ 2-> │ 5-> │ 2-> │ ├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│ │4 6 REGAL2│ 5-> │ 1->│ 1->│ ├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│ │5 8 IMPER3│ 1->│ 4-> │ 4-> │ └───────────┴────────────────────┴─────────────────────┴──────────────────────┘ Code:
TAM0701 2 8.0 T CL 3+ $13,200 CP=$10,000 12:55PM 3/8 JOCK/TRAIN R W P S W% R W P S EARNINGS W% EPS R SULLIVAN, CARS 17 2 0 2 12 LIFE 20 2 1 1 23,004 10 1,150 7 WETHERINGTON, 10 0 0 1 0 CURR 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 PAST 12 0 1 1 6,180 0 515 7 ML=20/1 T-RT 4 0 1 0 3,852 0 963 5 3 TOCO BOY AGE=6 OFF-T 1 0 0 0 COMMENT: EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC 2NDC FINC BL1 BL2 BLS BLF SR ESP L PI 1 179LRL 5FT 8.0D 46.6 112.7 138.7 19.80 18.20 25.10 31.10 41 1 2 223LRL 3GD 5.5Tp 47.3 113.8 139.9 11.40 15.70 17.10 15.30 50 2 3 251LRL 6FM 9.0T 49.8 114.6 139.0 1.60 1.00 6.20 6.10 64 3 4 279DEL 7FM 8.0T 47.5 112.2 136.6 0.00 2.10 12.10 12.20 70 4 5[ 319DEL 4FM 8.0T 48.4 112.8 138.0 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 75 5 ] 6 326DEL 1FT 8.3D 47.1 113.0 139.7 1.50 7.50 18.10 25.00 41 6 7 331DEL 2FM 8.3T 48.9 112.9 139.4 4.50 3.30 9.60 8.80 59 7 8 346DEL 2FM 5.0Tp 47.1 112.9 138.2 13.20 13.80 14.20 11.80 62 8 9 361DEL 1FT 8.3D 46.4 111.5 136.8 6.50 10.50 16.00 25.30 56 9 A 389DEL 9FT 8.0D 48.5 113.2 138.2 1.20 2.60 7.60 12.50 62 A DETAILS L TYPE PU/CP JOCKEY PP FN FD ODDSF COMMENT 1 CL-4+C 10,000 RENGIFO, KEIBE 6 9 10 97.00 OUTRUN 2 CL-3+ 7,500 MEJIAS, LARRY 6 7 12 60.00 OUTRUN 3 SO-3+C 16,000 THORPE, DARIUS 8 8 11 96.50 POOR ST,STDY 7/8,4W MV 4 SO-3+ 16,000 CAMPBELL, JANE 1 8 8 13.20 LED TO FAR TURN, TIRED 5[CL-3+NW3 17,500 CAMPBELL, JANE 4 2 7 87.40 PACE, RESISTED GAMELY ] 6 CL-3+NW3 6,250 CAMPBELL, JANE 5 6 6 12.50 PROMPTED PACE, TIRED 7 CL-3+NW3 17,500 COA, KEIBER 3 6 8 94.20 LACKED A RALLY 8 CL-3+NW3 17,500 COA, KEIBER 3 8 10 62.10 NO FACTOR 9 SA-3+C 5,000 TOLEDO, JEVIAN 3 5 6 44.00 SHOWED LITTLE A CL-3+NW3 5,000 REMEDIO, MARIA 7 5 8 32.20 FLATTENED OUT WORK OUTS 4D(FT)OWT: 51.0Bg 4D(FT)OWT: 52.0B 4D(FT)OWT: 52.0B 5D(FT)OWT:105.2B 4D(FT)OWT: 50.2B 4F(FT)DEL: 51.2B 5D(FT)DEL:102.4B 4D(FT)DEL: 48.8B FREQUENCY WORK OUTS 5 89 103 132 142 194 262 298 397 404 418 448 RACES 179 223 251 279 319 326 331 346 361 389 443 462 INSTRUCTIONS |
07-02-2016, 01:13 PM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
chart
51/1
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07-02-2016, 11:01 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
The 3 dropped in class and had a new trainer. I figured him to improve and in an ugly race was worth a bet. First time at this class. Thanks Bill. I always use Bris PP with RDSS and I get more data, especially trainers and comments. I'm basically doing some hides of ugly horses.
Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 07-02-2016 at 11:04 PM. |
07-15-2016, 12:03 PM | #5 |
Grade 3
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 74
|
Always seems one of the key components of a longshot winners is - CHANGE
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07-15-2016, 06:31 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
That is one good key but like other factors some races have two or three and their hard to separate. I think good prices are a combination of several good keys.
Mitch44 |
07-15-2016, 07:09 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2014
Location: Chicago
Posts: 121
|
Nice hit!
Not surprised on the big price considering the N3L condition + Turf.
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