Arkansas Derby - Pace and Cap

Charlie D · 04-07-2010, 05:00 PM

Entries

RichieP · 04-10-2010, 07:53 AM

pps

RichieP · 04-10-2010, 07:55 AM

..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUatY-id-xQ

lsosa54 · 04-10-2010, 09:45 AM

Have to run out for most of the day but here's my take.

If the track plays favorable to the early types, then Super has a fairly large EP segment advantage and may well carry that to the wire. It's somewhat hard to determine specifically how the routes have been playing over the last week or so, but yesterday's 2 routes were won from last and 3rd from last positionally at the 1/4 call. If it plays that way, I think Super's late deficiencies won't let him scoot away, esp. with the other early types in here.

If that's the case, then Dublin looks good and he is strong on both the EXDC and SP screen. Problem is I doubt we get 7-2.

If we make the call that the SP style may be the winning model style, and there is also plenty of front running styles in this race, then I may give a look to Pulsion.

He's 3rd off the layoff and was a fighting pacesetter in the Fla Derby, showing improved early form through the stretch. This is a horse who in his 2 good poly routes, was in the rear part of the field early. Maybe Biancone was trying to build endurance in that race. I still don't know if he's fast enough but if I use his Norfolk poly line, he's a got a shot at the wire.

If you're playing the exacta, don't disregard Northern & Uh Oh. Yesterday, I thought Uh Oh may have a shot to win at a big price, but unless he runs his Iroquois one turn mile style, I'm not optimistic.

If you decide to take a shot either with Uh Oh or Pulsion, I personally wouldn't take less than 7-1.

Good luck to all. Since this is not my home circuit, my bet amounts will be on the light side.

Bill V. · 04-10-2010, 10:01 AM

Got to give Smarty"s OP race a shot

Looks like 1 and 3 for me

Good Skill to everyone

mikesal57 · 04-10-2010, 10:59 AM

hi guys..

at 9 fur and with speed from the 5,6 and dont know what the 8 & 9 is going to do ...dont think the 1 will have that easy trip up front..

liking the 2 and 4

#2...after a little rest came back last 2 like a monster...had to run closer to pace last and maybe compromised his chances with additional speed today maybe can do it from more comfortable position.

#4...after big maiden win by 11 he ran credibly, first against graded company and then on poly..can improve

tfm · 04-10-2010, 12:21 PM

I think #3 is the best horse in the race. Problem is that he almost never gets a good trip. Typically, he ends up doing most of the running in his races, in other words, he get a worse trip than the winner. Maybe today he'll get a better ride and handle these, like he's supposed to.

Charlie D · 04-10-2010, 05:29 PM

Super looks best E, but looks vulnerable to horses like Nobles Promise.

NP will be of no appeal as a win bet on betfair and i can't bet Exotics on OP races, so this is fwiw.

3 on Top of 1 and 2 Exactas
3, 1,2 Tru
3,2,1 Tri

All the best.

lsosa54 · 04-10-2010, 05:57 PM

Well, folks, Super and Dublin were there but to be beaten gate to wire by a NW1 turf winner who had never run on the dirt is a tough beat. Read 'em and weep and move on. Wow.

tfm · 04-10-2010, 06:16 PM

I constantly read about how unfair and unpredictable POLY is but this is a perfect example of how unfair dirt can be. They went 1-2 around the track and the winner came back again after being passed in the lane. Nothing was able to run off the pace. This was UGLY racing.

04-07-2010, 05:00 PM	#1
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Arkansas Derby Entries Attached Images __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

04-10-2010, 10:01 AM	#5
Bill V. The egg man Join Date: Jul 2008 Location: Carlsbad, California Posts: 10,005	For Smarty Got to give Smarty"s OP race a shot Looks like 1 and 3 for me Good Skill to everyone

04-10-2010, 10:59 AM	#6
mikesal57 Grade 1 Join Date: May 2008 Location: Staten Island, NY Posts: 3,952	hi guys.. at 9 fur and with speed from the 5,6 and dont know what the 8 & 9 is going to do ...dont think the 1 will have that easy trip up front.. liking the 2 and 4 #2...after a little rest came back last 2 like a monster...had to run closer to pace last and maybe compromised his chances with additional speed today maybe can do it from more comfortable position. #4...after big maiden win by 11 he ran credibly, first against graded company and then on poly..can improve __________________ Never bet a favorite doing something for the first time-Harvey Pack

04-10-2010, 05:29 PM	#8
Charlie D Match Up Apprentice Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 2,105	Super looks best E, but looks vulnerable to horses like Nobles Promise. NP will be of no appeal as a win bet on betfair and i can't bet Exotics on OP races, so this is fwiw. 3 on Top of 1 and 2 Exactas 3, 1,2 Tru 3,2,1 Tri All the best. __________________ "To me, The Match Up supercedes everything"

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04-10-2010, 07:53 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	pps Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

04-10-2010, 07:55 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUatY-id-xQ Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

04-10-2010, 09:45 AM	#4
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Have to run out for most of the day but here's my take. If the track plays favorable to the early types, then Super has a fairly large EP segment advantage and may well carry that to the wire. It's somewhat hard to determine specifically how the routes have been playing over the last week or so, but yesterday's 2 routes were won from last and 3rd from last positionally at the 1/4 call. If it plays that way, I think Super's late deficiencies won't let him scoot away, esp. with the other early types in here. If that's the case, then Dublin looks good and he is strong on both the EXDC and SP screen. Problem is I doubt we get 7-2. If we make the call that the SP style may be the winning model style, and there is also plenty of front running styles in this race, then I may give a look to Pulsion. He's 3rd off the layoff and was a fighting pacesetter in the Fla Derby, showing improved early form through the stretch. This is a horse who in his 2 good poly routes, was in the rear part of the field early. Maybe Biancone was trying to build endurance in that race. I still don't know if he's fast enough but if I use his Norfolk poly line, he's a got a shot at the wire. If you're playing the exacta, don't disregard Northern & Uh Oh. Yesterday, I thought Uh Oh may have a shot to win at a big price, but unless he runs his Iroquois one turn mile style, I'm not optimistic. If you decide to take a shot either with Uh Oh or Pulsion, I personally wouldn't take less than 7-1. Good luck to all. Since this is not my home circuit, my bet amounts will be on the light side.

04-10-2010, 12:21 PM	#7
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	I think #3 is the best horse in the race. Problem is that he almost never gets a good trip. Typically, he ends up doing most of the running in his races, in other words, he get a worse trip than the winner. Maybe today he'll get a better ride and handle these, like he's supposed to.

04-10-2010, 05:57 PM	#9
lsosa54 Grade 1 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: NYC and San Diego Posts: 627	Well, folks, Super and Dublin were there but to be beaten gate to wire by a NW1 turf winner who had never run on the dirt is a tough beat. Read 'em and weep and move on. Wow.

04-10-2010, 06:16 PM	#10
tfm Former member Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 1,136	I constantly read about how unfair and unpredictable POLY is but this is a perfect example of how unfair dirt can be. They went 1-2 around the track and the winner came back again after being passed in the lane. Nothing was able to run off the pace. This was UGLY racing.