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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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02-06-2012, 01:00 PM | #11 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 115
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Quote:
I don't know. I'm on the fence with regards to Alpha, but it still is much too soon to get excited about anyone. |
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02-12-2012, 11:27 AM | #12 |
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Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Today, pool one closes on the Kentucky Derby futures. It looks like the field is a heavy favorite at 3/5. It also looks like trainer Todd Pletcher is loaded with contenders again for this year's running. It is still early, but he seems to have a couple of serious contenders. I would like to interview Pletcher's jockey, Javier Castellano to get his personal opinions of his choices of mounts. Some are truly blessed with surplus galore..
http://www.drf.com/news/kentucky-der...ns-early-trail Pool One past performances from DRF.. http://assets.churchilldowns.com/sit...Pool%201_5.pdf The weekend of Feb. 25-26th will be a good weekend of prep races as some of the top contenders will prove if they go onward towards the Kentucky Derby. |
02-12-2012, 04:21 PM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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I usually don't bet futures..but I decided to this year...yesterday bet
#19 Out of Bounds and # 23 Union Rags both are being overlooked!!!!!!! of course so are some others good luck to all |
02-26-2012, 11:38 PM | #14 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
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Well,they ran the Risen Star stakes at the Fairgrounds and the Fountain of Youth stakes at Gulfstream this weekend.
First, in the Risen Star Stakes, the much-hyped Pletcher-trained El Padrino barely nosed out a win against a horse that was going two turns and racing in stakes for the first time in Mark Valeski. El Padrino had ran a "huge race" on a wet track returning from a brief layoff in an optional claiming race. The Risen Star was really a disappointment in terms of energy expended. Pletcher always mentioned that he might put on blinkers on El Padrino because he is always too laid back, so we await the Lousiana Derby in a month. I don't know, this one has a Hansel-like pattern. I am looking at a possible disappointment in El Padrino's next race performance. In the Fountain of Youth, Pletcher's other top gun for the Derby,Algorithym popped a splint and was scratched for precautionary purposes. So Union Rags returned with a visually impressive performance in his first race as a 3 year old but.....until the final figures are in.....was a weak energy performance expenditure race even though Union Rags won by 4 impressive lengths. Even splits of 24 seconds per furlong are more like a true Derby horse working out during the week before the Derby....We move onwards to the Rebel Stakes.....Good skill to all! |
02-27-2012, 08:46 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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Well said Trotman...all of what you say is true...year after year...some horses just hate the CD surface 75% sandy loam and sometimes they quit watering the track late in the day...a previous good trip over that surface is IMPORTANT when pointing to the Derby,
both Union Rags and Hansen have that in their favor...Union Rags missed the track record yest by 2/5's and only got a 95 Beyer...even Beyer has been quoted as saying that he doesn't use his own figs????? I wonder why...I never have either.. Union Rags looks like a monster to me & I got 7/1 on him in pool 1...he'll be less than that in the Derby...also got Out of Bounds at 23/1..did anyone else bet the futures in pool 1??? |
02-28-2012, 06:29 PM | #16 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 259
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Atkinsrr I have in all my years boasted about 4 horses for the Derby. Northern Dancer in 64, Secretariat in 73, Charismatic in 99 and Big Brown a few years back and the common denominator was they all win. Union Rags after viewing replays from various angles besides what most have seen does impress me. His stride was reserved or in my words restrained which makes me think that when released we just might see something very special and only the weeks leading up to the Derby will tell. I was in the early days of the Dancer his exercise rider so I can connect the video to what Union Rags did. At this point in time he is the one to beat but it still is early and lets hope he stays healthy.
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"Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall" |
02-29-2012, 04:49 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 259
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If your playing this game for profit then as I said don't oversell yourself, and it has already come into play Algorthyms is done. Like a fine wine these horses will let us know when it's time and we should be able to pick up on this. Trust me there will be more that fall to the wayside just as there will be more shooting for the moon but in the end unless you can handle Churchill all the numbers in the world mean nothing. Derby day is a great day to make a profit with all the first time race goers and ignorant money but you can get killed if you don't know Churchill, some of the best handicappers take the day off that first Saturday in May for that reason because it isn't worth the aggrevation. If you don't in your gut have the feeling that you have the race right, just pass and be happy.
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"Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall" |
02-29-2012, 05:22 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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I totally agree...CD and Saratoga are consistently my best tracks...of course I live 120
miles from CD and have been there numerous times and know it well...have won some derbys and lost some...but with the swelled up pools one good hit on derby day can make the whole day for you...and it doesn't have to be the derby itself...I mostly hcp and bet turf races and the undercard on derby day is what I look at!!!!!!good luck everyone |
02-29-2012, 06:44 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 259
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Atkinsrr in the few posts that I have read by you I can tell you're a seasoned player. The mention of Turf gives me a good read. With so little races over the green and not to mention classes in my opinion Turf offers tremendous value which many don't bother with which I have thought was a mistake. You mention CD and Saratoga and I thought you might have said Keeneland which for me the spring and fall meet have been great value Turf and Poly. Tip of the hat to you partner.
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"Success consists of simply getting back up one more time than you fall" |
03-01-2012, 03:24 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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Thx trotman...I do bet Keeneland as they have good graded stakes on the turf but
sometimes I don't get many playable races because the meet is only 3 weeks or shorter twice a year...and it has that?????ugh poly surface...do bet some races on that surface at Kee and Dmr but very limited. |
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