Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Races of Interest
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-06-2012, 02:15 AM   #1
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
The Derby-A look back

There are a couple of things that "Doc" said that most people seem to forget.
1 - when handicapping the derby, only use horses that have finished first or second in Grade I or Grade II races.
2 - the last line is the line...unless there is a "valid" reason to go back one line

To these points I will add one of my own that I have posted numerous times and that is;
eliminate horses with a ML=>20/1


If you followed these three easy steps, you would have started your handicapping with the following horses;
3,4,5,6,8,11,14,15 and 19.

I don't use any Sartin software or RDSS, however, I did run these horses through ENERGY and have posted the screen shots below.

If you look at the first screen, you will see that #11 and #15 have a much lower TOTAL ENERGY than the rest of the contenders, which means they are that much slower, and for that reason I eliminated them. That leaves seven horses remaining.

Now ENERGY does not have a "line score", but it is easy enough to calculate yourself. Just add the rankings across from screen 4 for each horse from left to right. This is the way they would line up:
#5 = 17
#19 = 18
#8 = 19
#14 = 21
#3 = 27
#4 = 27
#6 = 32

In addition, the "variegate" indicated "EARLY" (see screen 3). #19 was the third ranked "EARLY" horse. Coupling the variegate and the line score together, the eventual winner is clearly a play.

Also, although the #6 horse does not get a favorable line score, it is the "energizer" and owns the first two fractions in the race as seen on screen 5, where it is the 0.00 horse for the first two fractions. These are "serious" contenders.

As you are all aware by now, the final result was #19 first and #6 second.

There are no tricks or gimmicks here, just straight forward practices.
Attached Images
     
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2012, 05:06 AM   #2
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Energy

Perfect FTL !

I reran the race with Energy using the lines you posted
I got the 2 adjust alarm
The 11 and 5 coming out of the Wood AQU had 159 total energys
and everbody else was right around 164.00
Since we have established grade 1 and 2 winners and place horses
as true contenders in the derby I did use the 2 adjust

Here is my look Every horse had a sustained ESP
The Varigate shows Sustained

With a sustained varigate paragon B is the win energy screen
The winner #19 I'll is ranked third
The place horse # 6 is in the top 2 on Paragon A = the counter energy horses

Kgen/thoromation mirrored RDSS and Val 4 Yes a contender yet hard to get to

Name:  En 2.PNG
Views: 874
Size:  49.1 KB

Name:  still.PNG
Views: 836
Size:  42.5 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2012, 06:39 AM   #3
shoeless
Grade 1
 
shoeless's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,149
FTL and Bill,

Nice job showing the screenshots and explanations

Jeff
shoeless is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2012, 11:44 AM   #4
SilentRun
Grade 1 Aspiree
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
Derby Energy with RDSS 2.0

The above posts by FTL and Bill were excellent and quite an eye opener for me.

In particular the RDSS 2.0 TE energy numbers for horses 11 & 15 are significantly different ( screens below) than the 159.xx readings for the same horses shown in the above posts.
I used the last lines for both 11 & 15 which were both solid G1 lines. This placed both horses on top of the energy food chain in RDSS 2.0 and of course considered these horses as prime candidates.

I am starting to investigate this as best I could but at this point I don't why there is such a discrepancy ???

Ernie
Attached Images
   
SilentRun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2012, 12:58 PM   #5
SilentRun
Grade 1 Aspiree
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
TE Difference

FTL, Bill............Can either of you explain/show the numbers for the calculation
for the TE energy for tAlpha (11) and Gemologist (15). In the RDSS 2.0 panel (below) the numbers are displayed.

Thanks,

Ernie
Attached Images
 
SilentRun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2012, 04:22 PM   #6
Mr.Pagine
Happy Punting
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 480
Difference in TE #'s

Ernie - I am extremely interested in your findings, as I am unsure why the difference in TE.

Thanks,
JD
Mr.Pagine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2012, 04:24 PM   #7
Mr.Pagine
Happy Punting
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Toronto, Ontario
Posts: 480
Ftl - great job

FTL - Great Jo on Derby Contenders - KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid).

I need to remember this year for next year.

JD
Mr.Pagine is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2012, 05:12 PM   #8
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentRun View Post
FTL, Bill............Can either of you explain/show the numbers for the calculation
for the TE energy for tAlpha (11) and Gemologist (15). In the RDSS 2.0 panel (below) the numbers are displayed.

Thanks,

Ernie
I can't "show" them to you any better than what I posted, however, I will show you the running lines (and times) for the last race of the #11,#15 and the winner, #19. The #11 and #15 came out of the same race and were only a "neck" apart at the finish, so naturally, their times are going to be almost identical. Compare these times to the #19 and you will see how much slower their times were at the very same distance. Keep in mind that "raw" times are entered into ENERGY.

Before I go further, I noticed in your first post that you used line 2 for the winner. You should have used line 1. "The last line IS the line, unless there is a "valid" reason to go back one line". There is no valid reason here to go back one line. "Doc" said it. I just AGREE with it!
Attached Images
   
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2012, 05:35 PM   #9
For The Lead
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,292
Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentRun View Post
FTL, Bill............Can either of you explain/show the numbers for the calculation
for the TE energy for tAlpha (11) and Gemologist (15). In the RDSS 2.0 panel (below) the numbers are displayed.

Thanks,

Ernie
By way of "confirming" my previous post, I'll just say that I do my own adjustments and etc.
Someone wrote to me and asked about my take on the derby. In response, I simply provided them with the "top 5" (25% of the field) in a few categories.
Unlike most people, I am concerned with each horses "early" position. The top 5 in that category were #'s 3,6,14,15,19, in post position order. I did not consider #9 (Trinniberg) as this horse was just an annoyance in this race.
I also provided them with the "top 5" horses based on final time. Those horses were the #'s 5,6,8,10,19, again, in post position order.

You can see three things from this;
1 - the winner and the second horse were among the 5 best first call position horses.
2 - the winner, place horse and show horse were among the the 5 best final time horses.
3 - the #11 and #15 were NOT among the top 5 final time horses

So these findings tend to confirm the findings through ENERGY.
__________________
"It's suppose to be hard. If it was easy, everybody would do it." Jimmy Dugan, A League of Their Own
For The Lead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-06-2012, 07:43 PM   #10
SilentRun
Grade 1 Aspiree
 
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 678
Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
By way of "confirming" my previous post, I'll just say that I do my own adjustments and etc.
Someone wrote to me and asked about my take on the derby. In response, I simply provided them with the "top 5" (25% of the field) in a few categories.
Unlike most people, I am concerned with each horses "early" position. The top 5 in that category were #'s 3,6,14,15,19, in post position order. I did not consider #9 (Trinniberg) as this horse was just an annoyance in this race.
I also provided them with the "top 5" horses based on final time. Those horses were the #'s 5,6,8,10,19, again, in post position order.

You can see three things from this;
1 - the winner and the second horse were among the 5 best first call position horses.
2 - the winner, place horse and show horse were among the the 5 best final time horses.
3 - the #11 and #15 were NOT among the top 5 final time horses

So these findings tend to confirm the findings through ENERGY.
Thanks for your response,

Yes, I can verify the first call position and final times and what you have stated in points 1.2 and 3 of your post is absolutely correct. I admit I did not look at those times originally (Which is an absolutely must going forward) as I used the rankings from RDSS. I am also re-posting the panels for all the representative horses. I made a judgement call to use line 2 for # 19. Had I used line 1 for #19 I would still get a TE# 0f 163.xx which does not alter the question for me which is..........

How does the program that you and Bill used specifically compute Total Energy ????

As I understand RDSS simply computes Total Energy = F1 + F2 +F3.

Using the data for Horse 15 (2nd panel below)) TE = 56.9 + 54.6 + 53.8 = 165.3 (RDSS shows 165.2 which may result from rounding)

Your program resulted in TE = 159.xx (Siginificant Difference). This was critical for the Derby as your program correclty eliminated the 11 & 15 horses from contention.
So now I am not comfortable with this situation.

Ernie
Attached Images
  
SilentRun is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
RDSS1 and the Kentucky Derby Ted Craven RDSS 11 05-04-2012 07:32 PM
Races of the Derby Trail , Can we look them over? pktruckdriver Races of Interest 10 03-10-2012 06:26 PM
RDSS & Kentucky Derby Ted Craven RDSS 0 04-29-2010 07:22 AM
Sartin Followup study RichieP General Discussion 20 12-03-2009 09:08 AM
Release Notes - Version 0.98.7 Ted Craven RDSS Info, Reference 2 07-17-2009 11:09 AM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:00 PM.