The Derby-A look back

[Houndog]

Following are THOROMATION Screens. Although the red flag came up for the #2 adjust I always ask myself which horse or horses are causing this. From the previous screens such as the Kinetic Generator; CPR screens; and the KGEN screens one could make the case that Gemologist and Alpha do not deserve that great of a boost hence sticking with the auto-adjust.

[Houndog]

If you are more numbers oriented the same horses auto-adjusted in Energy II.

[Houndog]

THOROMATION screenshots that include Hansen and Take Charge Indy.

[Houndog]

The numbers screenshots in THOROMATION with Hansen and Take Charge Indy.

[atkinsrr]

Did anyone read the charts and/or watch the replay of the derby...Dullihan Union Rags
Daddy Nose Best Gemologist Alpha all encountered trouble during the race...the winner
IHA and place horse Bode both had dream trips with no trouble....something to think about for the Preakness

[lone speed]

I value the contributions in this board and I always believe and constantly improving one use of the methodology.....Its strongest value are the contributions from users who share their research and models from their own use of the methodology....

I do not know if the steps taken by FTL for attacking most races and this year's Derby, but in the back of my mind, I have to wonder out loud if these steps would have gotten past Derby winners like Go For Gin, Thunder Gulch, Giacomo, Sea Hero, Grindstone, Smarty Jones, and Mine that Bird.....

Go for Gin's best sustained line was the 4th line back, his last line before the 94 Derby may put him in the top two EXDC or early variegate... Thunder Gulch's last line before the Derby was in the Blue Grass where he faded 4 lengths behind the winner..His best sustained line was either the Florida Derby which triggered a two adjust on thoromation which put him on top on the final screen.

Giacomo, well, he was 50 to 1 .......next... Sea Hero had some questionable turf preps and in his last line before the Derby, he finished about 2 two lengths behind the winner.

Grindstone best sustained line was two races back whereas his last line before the Derby, he might be in the top two on EXDC since he faced the top pace in his last Derby prep...

Smarty Jones' best sustained line was two races before the Derby, but in his final prep,he might be in the top two EXDC from the Arkansas Derby....and Mine That Bird....well,he also was 50 to 1....but some might had have him in the top two EXDC from his last prep race in the Sunland Derby......And Animal Kingdom's last derby prep race had a dismal last fraction....

Yes, I do know that we do not have to have all the winners every year in the Derby, but I can dream....right?...I do not have to have life changing scores every year but if I can get Mine That Bird, Giacomo, and Thunder Gulch...it will be very sweet...

Trust me when I say that I have the upmost respect for FTL's research and contributions.....his approach is clear and there are no second quessing as to which pace lines to choose...as some users have a difficult time with this issue.....

I guess that I would like my cake and eat it, too if I had to sum up my post.....

[lsosa54]

While I understand the feelings behind your post, your goal is impossible in my experience. Don't know if you've ever played baseball, but that's the mind set I take. A good hitter may hit .280 so he "loses" 72% of the time. That really is the major adjustment one has to make.

You can't just pick up RDSS or any program, play the "numbers" so to speak, and make your fortune. It simply doesn't happen. Like with any other profession, it requires a huge time investment, practice, years of experience, proper funding, and that still doesn't guarantee success.

I have tried chasing approaches to get all winners but not only will you drive yourself insane, it can't be done. This is a very difficult game which requires years of experience and constant adjustments to make a profit.

Giacomo wasn't gettable on figs. He was gettable on race shapes and the fact he had performed well in a graded stakes, possibly as a 2yo, don't remember. Sea Hero had a good performance as a 2yo, but again the fig wasn't jumping out for the Derby. Mine That Bird actually had the best early pace for me out of his Sunland race, but you saw how he ran - not early.

Develop an approach like a .280 hitter with a mutuel that makes a profit. Maybe it's an 18% hit rate at 5-1 that gives you an 8% profit. Don't chase trying to get all winners. The minute you get one, another one comes in that you would have had under your "old" approach. It becomes highly frustrating.

The toughest thing I've had to get used to is losing in order to win. Think of it like a baseball player. The math and mental aspects of this game make it very difficult. Betting a substantial amount is not easy both mentally and physically, esp. if you are playing professionally. Don't believe anyone's ROI unless you have witnessed their records.

Of course, I'm always open to suggestions but that's 23 years in a nutshell for you.

[atkinsrr]

Giacomo was a fluke and was hard to get...he won the race because Afleet Alex checked
at the qtr pole behind 2 or 3 horses who were quitting and by the time he got clear Giacomo was already past him......isosa54 your last paragraph is "right on" u have to be able to accept losses, u have to tougher mentally than u have to be in any other business, and as Doc used to say....better have a bankroll betting with the "bill" money
DOES NOT WORK...and one final thought...no matter how good u are or how good your're not, no matter what program or method u use to handicap...u won't win long term
betting favs...u better be getting prices on the tote. Since I'm a win, pic3, pic4 bettor..
no other exotics I HAVE TO BE XXXXTREMELY PATIENT..on ave if I handicap 20 races..I usually only wager between 5 and 8 of those.. I pass a bunch...hope this will helps..I did not have I'll Have Another in the Derby(my mistake)but I nailed him in the Preakness...GOOD LUCK TO ALL IN THE BELMONT...MIGHT HAVE A TC WINNER??????

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by lsosa54

While I understand the feelings behind your post, your goal is impossible in my experience. Don't know if you've ever played baseball, but that's the mind set I take. A good hitter may hit .280 so he "loses" 72% of the time. That really is the major adjustment one has to make.

You can't just pick up RDSS or any program, play the "numbers" so to speak, and make your fortune. It simply doesn't happen. Like with any other profession, it requires a huge time investment, practice, years of experience, proper funding, and that still doesn't guarantee success.

I have tried chasing approaches to get all winners but not only will you drive yourself insane, it can't be done. This is a very difficult game which requires years of experience and constant adjustments to make a profit.

Giacomo wasn't gettable on figs. He was gettable on race shapes and the fact he had performed well in a graded stakes, possibly as a 2yo, don't remember. Sea Hero had a good performance as a 2yo, but again the fig wasn't jumping out for the Derby. Mine That Bird actually had the best early pace for me out of his Sunland race, but you saw how he ran - not early.

Develop an approach like a .280 hitter with a mutuel that makes a profit. Maybe it's an 18% hit rate at 5-1 that gives you an 8% profit. Don't chase trying to get all winners. The minute you get one, another one comes in that you would have had under your "old" approach. It becomes highly frustrating.

The toughest thing I've had to get used to is losing in order to win. Think of it like a baseball player. The math and mental aspects of this game make it very difficult. Betting a substantial amount is not easy both mentally and physically, esp. if you are playing professionally. Don't believe anyone's ROI unless you have witnessed their records.

Of course, I'm always open to suggestions but that's 23 years in a nutshell for you.

lsosa54...

Thanks for taking some time to post a well written response to my post. You seem to have all your ducks line up well from your 23 years of experiences... I have enjoyed your mental approach mindset and the analogies used.

I understand your reasonings that you had written. I have always been told that betting is the other 50 percent of this game even if we can sustain a positive edge in our systems/programs that we use... Many ways to approach this game, but you are right that most cannot withstand the psychology ,for example, of using a partial Kelly criterion of optimal betting and money management. Most do not like the daily grind...and most lack the sophistacation of the team and system used by William Benter and his syndicates in Hong Kong.

My goals are not as grandeur as Benter but my Derby goals are loftier than most.....I always believe that the answers that we seek will be solved from the future if this sentence makes any sense. Sometimes, we may need to think outside the box or maybe someday, some one will solve our present day problems...I am sure Tom Ainslie did not know that Sartin will develop concepts or computer programs during his time when he wrote his book.. I want to believe that the answers can be solved with the most return on investments.....

I do not seek to win the Derby race every year but I will like to conquer the race on my terms....anyways, enough rambling and some insights to past Derby races.....

some past Derby winners with their lifetime pps... http://www1.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby...rbywinners.pdf

and Giacomo pps
http://www1.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby...bywinner.pdfGa

I did not get Giacomo on my top two choices as Afleet Alex was my top choice for 2005 Derby....Later on....an acquaintance pointed out that Giacomo had the same energy line as Thunder Gulch's Hollywood Futurity line when Thunder Gulch chased Afternoon Delite and lost by 6 lenths after some blitzing pace.. Giacomo in the San Felipe chased the same wicked pace and finished about 6 lengths behind Consolidator...Both ran sustained and the finish looked worse visually but in Sartin's program, these are strong lines which can put one in the right top two.....

I am well aware that this does not fit Sartin's Derby guidelines...I am just throwing some woods into the firepit....

[lone speed]

link to Giacomo's pp

http://www1.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby...erbywinner.pdf