Anybody looking at Tampa March 7, 2014 - Races 1 & 7 - Page 3 - Pace and Cap

The Pook · 03-07-2014, 09:13 PM

Bill

Sorry but I had shifted focus to the 3rd race. You are on the 7th. No wonder I was confused. Maybe I should have started a new thread. Thanks for your effort. You guys are good.

Pook

PeteC · 10-14-2014, 11:50 PM

Hi Ted- I was going through some old posts and saw your question. Sorry that I missed it originally!

Anyway, I don't have the full PP's but based on the two horses you posted and your comments here is what I gather:

1) You projected the pace as 22.8 45.4 off of the last line of the 6 horse.
2) You feel the race will go OTE because of the presence of other early runners who can match that pace.
3) You wanted to go against the 8 horse at low odds because it ran early in its last 2 races against a pace slower than today.

All of that makes good sense, there is only one piece that I might add for future consideration..

And, granted, I can't see the whole field and this is 7 months later...

The only thing I would say for the 8 is that even though it ran early in its last 2, it has finished close running OTE in previous races. Those races were also against a faster 1C like you project today.

One thing to consider when you project a 1C time is to also project what position a horse might be in today against that pace. Then try to find a line where it found itself in a similar position. For example, if you think today's pace is 22.8, how many horses will be in front of the 8 at the 1C? If he might be sitting 4th or so, against a 22.8, then I would at least consider how lines 4 or 5 match up to the other OTE contenders.

I'm definitely not saying I would have had this horse, because I know I've thrown out more than my share like this one, thinking the same as you did: that this horse will try to run early and be burned off. However, it definitely pays to give a second look to horses who show wins/close finishes with multiple styles. In the case of the 8, we know if it finds itself in 4th against a faster pace like today, it is capable of rallying.

Hope that helps! Thanks for all of your great work with this site too!!

mowens33 · 10-15-2014, 07:41 AM

PeteC, even though it took 7 months your post was well worth the wait!

Excellent Post!!

Thanks, Mike

10-14-2014, 11:50 PM	#22
PeteC Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 611	Better late than never? Hi Ted- I was going through some old posts and saw your question. Sorry that I missed it originally! Anyway, I don't have the full PP's but based on the two horses you posted and your comments here is what I gather: 1) You projected the pace as 22.8 45.4 off of the last line of the 6 horse. 2) You feel the race will go OTE because of the presence of other early runners who can match that pace. 3) You wanted to go against the 8 horse at low odds because it ran early in its last 2 races against a pace slower than today. All of that makes good sense, there is only one piece that I might add for future consideration.. And, granted, I can't see the whole field and this is 7 months later... The only thing I would say for the 8 is that even though it ran early in its last 2, it has finished close running OTE in previous races. Those races were also against a faster 1C like you project today. One thing to consider when you project a 1C time is to also project what position a horse might be in today against that pace. Then try to find a line where it found itself in a similar position. For example, if you think today's pace is 22.8, how many horses will be in front of the 8 at the 1C? If he might be sitting 4th or so, against a 22.8, then I would at least consider how lines 4 or 5 match up to the other OTE contenders. I'm definitely not saying I would have had this horse, because I know I've thrown out more than my share like this one, thinking the same as you did: that this horse will try to run early and be burned off. However, it definitely pays to give a second look to horses who show wins/close finishes with multiple styles. In the case of the 8, we know if it finds itself in 4th against a faster pace like today, it is capable of rallying. Hope that helps! Thanks for all of your great work with this site too!!

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03-07-2014, 09:13 PM	#21
The Pook Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2014 Location: Loretto, Ontario Canada Posts: 2,535	Bill Sorry but I had shifted focus to the 3rd race. You are on the 7th. No wonder I was confused. Maybe I should have started a new thread. Thanks for your effort. You guys are good. Pook

10-15-2014, 07:41 AM	#23
mowens33 Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2014 Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA Posts: 1,035	PeteC, even though it took 7 months your post was well worth the wait! Excellent Post!! Thanks, Mike