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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 06-06-2014, 09:19 PM   #11
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Yes Indeed Chuck


One of the very few rules in the Sartin Methodology
Listen to Doc in is own words talking to Aline Best about her getting Lemon Drop Kid and winning the Belmont

Doc lays down the law ( about 1 minute in to this clip )

Bill
Would you use a 10f Derby line in another 10f race today (or tomorrow)?

What if they ran the Belmont Stakes at 10f instead of 12f?

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Old 06-06-2014, 09:24 PM   #12
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Would you use a 10f Derby line in another 10f race today (or tomorrow)?

What if they ran the Belmont Stakes at 10f instead of 12f?



Ted
I would never use the derby line for any race


But the law says never use the derby line for the Preakness or the Belmont
plain and simple Good luck/skill Ted

Quote:
What if they ran the Belmont Stakes at 10f instead of 12f?
That is something I have no answer too because they don't

Ted only you would probably know the answer to this or maybe somebody has the Charismatic Belmont card.
Doc is talking to Aline about the program Synthesis which is very much like Validator in format and of course RDSS is Validator
Is Synthesis rating the race at 12 furlongs or 10 ? My copy of RDSS is using 12 furlongs.

thanks Bill

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Old 06-06-2014, 09:31 PM   #13
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Hi Bill , I guess I'm a rule breaker because the readouts I posted use the Derby race. Commanding Curve ran a terrific race and I liked that line the best for him. When I first figured this race I used any line but the Derby race and came up with very different readouts. So different I redid the race and thats the one I posted.Now I'll put up the race as I first figured it not using the Derby line except for Commanding Curve.
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Old 06-06-2014, 09:34 PM   #14
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Old 06-06-2014, 09:43 PM   #15
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The real bottom line is - this is a horse race and anything can happen. When we handicap, we are trying to fortell the future, sometimes we are right and other times so wrong its crazy. I wish everyone here good luck with this one ,I see many threats to CC and I also see CC just walking away with it all.So as far as I'm concerned I might not bet this one at all. I'll see how I feel after a nights sleep. I'm sure I'll run this race many times over in my mind as I try to sleep tonight.
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Old 06-06-2014, 09:52 PM   #16
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Thank You

Thank You Ramon

Thanks for doing that. Hope I am not being a Sartin bully. I just
wanted to answer Chuck. There are very few rules. Doc says it himself. The derby is a wild race because of the age /distance demands of the horses with no prior experience, a full 19-20 horse race with crazy traffic issues
When was the last 19-20 horse Belmont or Preakness?

How often are people going to use the 12 furlong Belmont paceline
in future races ?
Why would I use a 12 furlong line most of the other grade 1 races
are 10 furlongs I would be more inclined to keep it within 1 furlong
Why do you suppose in the classic programs the max distance is
9.5 furlongs ?

There has to be good reasons for Doc to feel so strongly about not using the Derby line.

Good skill I too will do the race with valm when I find a discarded
DRF at Del Mar tomorrow
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Old 06-06-2014, 10:14 PM   #17
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Hi Bill ! No I didn't take it that way. Everyone who has been in and using the Sartin Methodology for any length of time knows about the Derby Rule and for good reason. It is the ultimate chaos race. Twenty starters ? Give me a break. The racing gods must be laughing like crazy at that. The Derby in my way of thinking should be 14 to 16 tops. And That is alot of horse flesh all trying to get in a good position to finish well. The Derby has to be a riders nightmare.No for sure there's good reason not to use Derby lines.
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Old 06-06-2014, 10:58 PM   #18
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yea Ramon...all of us will be dreaming about this race tonight..if we get to sleep...better horses than Cal Chrome have lost the race..even tho he'll be on my P4 tickets..I'm gonna try to beat him ..hopefully I'll still be alive in the P4 when the Belmont runs..I'm
throwing out the 3, 6, and 8....and have all the others on my ticket
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Old 06-07-2014, 10:16 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V. View Post
Ted only you would probably know the answer to this or maybe somebody has the Charismatic Belmont card.
Doc is talking to Aline about the program Synthesis which is very much like Validator in format and of course RDSS is Validator
Is Synthesis rating the race at 12 furlongs or 10 ? My copy of RDSS is using 12 furlongs.

thanks Bill
I don't recall if Synthesis has the ability to change distances. Val4 and RDSS do. One of the features of Synergism (and surely other older programs) is to pick a distance for today's race (i.e. other than the actual distance) which most matches the collection of pacelines chosen for the horses - in order to minimize the 'noise' from distance projections. Perhaps Synthesis could not do this; perhaps that is why Doc said not use the 10f Derby line. Don't know, but wish I did (from his perspective): I don't like accepting 'laws' I don't understand the basis for ...

I sometimes change distances on races where the horses are running further than their representative pacelines show, to see if it makes a material difference in the outcome - which I did for both the Derby and Preakness. In this Belmont Stakes race, as I mentioned in my first post above, it did not, which gave me confidence in how the numbers were being projected to 12f. Of course unanswered is which of the horses can survive that distance!

Other Spring/early Summer 3YO races surely run at 10f. Some of them may indeed have many horses. Some of those horses are undoubtedly improving, or suffered trouble or slow paces in recent lines, and that 10f race does them the most credit. Maybe they are Early or Early Pressers or Pressers who managed to stay out of traffic in that 10f race. It would be normal to want to use that line to represent such horses in their next few outings.

I recall I have not suffered greatly by (prudently) ignoring that 'law' in several recent Preakness or Belmonts, though I think it is not often necessary to rely on that single Derby line to rate a horse.

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Old 06-07-2014, 10:37 AM   #20
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Good

Yes Ted but all the 10 furlong races restricted to 3 year olds are
after the Derby

A law is a law if you understand it or not

If you listen to Doc in the clip he did not say why or how to get around it
by using a program like "Synergism" or Entropy were you can change the distance. He says it is a rule and one of the very few rules
To me this means don't do it

I hope Chuck makes up his own mind on this. I answered his question
you did too.

thanks
Bill
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