MC November 14 by The Pook

[The Pook]

Pook

[The Pook]

For a change of pace from a lot of early speed lets go with a dogs breakfast from PRX. Nov 14, Race 4. No early to speak of, a sprinter with no route lines in a route, a turfer with no dirt lines going on dirt.

Good luck,

Pook

[mowens33]

Race 4

Pace: 24.6-48.8-112.8

I like the 3 on lead or closeup for the win.

[raceman5]

Nasty race. NW4L alot of times in these races we see alot of trainer moves. One of them is the #5 drop back where it belongs and has competitive pace figs. The other horse i like is #3 a sprinter stretching out and finishes by gaining in the end which the hat wanted to see with a sprinter going to a route. Plus his final times are much better then the routers half mile times which are pretty slow.

My bets are 3-5


Bob

[The Pook]

Scratch the 1

[Capcondo]

Thanks for putting this up Pook. It's an interesting race. Coming from PRX, it presents interesting challenges since the purses are so high there.

The 3 is obviously the sprinter you're referring to. She may get some company up front from the 10. I think the race will run OTE.

The others:

2: OTE from a middle position. Last line shows she can run at the end.
4: Last two lines ugly. OUT.
5: Does her best running near the lead. Won from the second position. OUT.
6: Only good S type race against good pace was on WF surface. Last two races poor. OUT
7: Good S type who won last. Will be too far back. OUT.
8: Have to believe she has had opportunities to run on dirt from turf races rained out. OUT.
9: Deeply sustained type horse with lots of ugly races. OUT.

The 2 is my choice to win the race.

[The Pook]

Prx #4

47/112.8/144.2
Most are eliminated for me through slower tandems. I see the 3 wiring.

3

Pook

[PeteC]

The routers look very slow to me. The sprinter projects a nice easy lead here and will have every chance to lead all the way. Stamina is the only question as I usually like to see sprinters in routes who can close a little bit. I'd love to find a fast OTE runner at a nice price, especially given my standing in the contest, but I don't see one. I'll take the 3.

[Bill V.]

Well I lost this race but i had issues with the 10
Who had the back class but did nothing except hurt the 3

anyway for what its worth here s my workup

horse 10

PRX1114 4 8.3 D CL 3+F $23,000 CP=$7,500 1:46PM             10/10
JOCK/TRAIN       R   W   P   S   W%        R  W  P  S  EARNINGS   W%      EPS  R
BOWMAN, ADAM    48   1   1   1    2 LIFE  24  3  7  3    94,736   13    3,947  2
POLACHEK, JANE   8   0   0   1    0 CURR  11  0  6  2    43,945    0    3,995  5
(c) 35 /LAKE $8,000                 PAST  10  3  1  0    45,710   30    4,571  2
ML=12/1                             D-RT  18  3  7  2    88,650   17    4,925  2
 10 GROOVY DANCER            AGE=4  OFF-D
 COMMENT:
                      EQUALIZED, NORMALIZED AND ADJUSTED
L DAYSTRK RCODISTSd 1STC  2NDC  FINC   BL1   BL2   BLS   BLF  SR  ESP     L PI
1   35PRX 5FT 8.3D  48.2 113.2 143.1  2.00  4.10 15.50 26.50  45          1
2   63MTH 5FT 8.3D  48.3 113.2 145.2  3.00  4.50  3.20  6.30  55          2
3[  91MTH10FT 8.0D  49.1 113.4 143.7  2.00  1.60  2.50  0.50  68          3    ]
4  126PRX 1FT 8.0D  48.3 113.3 144.4  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.30  63          4
5  147MTH 9FT 8.3D  48.0 112.1 143.0  2.70  4.50  6.00  7.80  64          5
6  160PRX 5FT 8.0D  50.6 114.3 143.4  0.70  0.15  0.15  3.50  67          6
7  181PRX 4FT 8.0D  46.1 112.1 144.8 11.00  5.10  0.00  0.00  63          7
8  197PRX 3FT 8.3D  51.1 115.7 146.3  0.15  0.00  0.00  0.00  56          8
9  216PRX 6FT 8.3D  47.2 113.1 145.5  2.10  0.00  0.00  1.50  58          9
A  259PRX 7FT 8.3D  47.5 112.5 142.5  3.20  4.70  8.50 14.80  60          A
                                    DETAILS
L TYPE           PU/CP JOCKEY         PP FN FD    ODDSF COMMENT
1 CL-3+FNW4      7,500 SAEZ, GABRIEL   7  9  9    9.90  CLOSE UP, GAVE WAY
2 AL-3+FSNW1    50,000 CASTELLANO, AB  5  3 11    3.90  CHASED BTWN, EVENLY
3[AL-3+FSNW1    50,000 GARCIA, WILMER  5  2  7    2.80  RAIL TRIP, RALLIED
4 CL-3+FNW4      7,500 DAVIS, JACQUEL  2  2  5    3.40  DUELED, HELD GAMELY
5 AL-3+FSNW1    50,000 TRUJILLO, ELVI  3  2  8    3.90  TRACKED, GAMELY 2ND
6 CL-3+FNW1     12,500 CARSON, LAURA   3  2  5    2.10  STALKED, BID, WEAKENED
7 CL-3+FNW4      7,500 CARSON, LAURA   2  2  6    4.20  FUMBLED REINS, NIPPED
8 CL-3+FNW4      7,500 CARSON, LAURA   1  5  5    0.90* MILD URGING, DQ'ED
9 CL-3+FNW4      7,500 VALENTIN, FRAN  1  2 10    2.80  CLEAR, COULDN'T LAST
A CL-4+F        10,000 RITVO, MICHAEL  2  5  8    3.60  LACKED A RALLY
                                   WORK OUTS
 4D(FT)PRX: 51.9B  4D(SY)PRX: 50.0B  4D(FT)PRX: 51.2B  4D(FT)PRX: 49.2B
 4D(FT)MTH: 49.8B  5D(FT)MTH:103.6B  4D(FT)MTH: 48.4B  5D(FT)MTH:106.4B
                                   FREQUENCY
WORK OUTS   10   94  219  278  437  463  488  497  535  544  550  573
RACES       35   63   91  126  147  160  181  197  216  259  307  329
                                 INSTRUCTIONS
 F1=Adjusted Pace Lines/Details               F2=Adjusted & Original Pace Lines
 F6=Paceline Indicator                        F9=Comments
     P=Print             ↑=Back 1 Horse   ↓=Next Horse            Esc=Calculate
                        Press # to Select/UnSelect Line

Race 4
Pace lines
Horse 1 Scr
Horse 2 Line 2-3
Horse 3 Line 4
Horse 4 Line 3
Horse 5 Line 2
Horse 6 Line 3 form
Horse 7 Line 1
Horse 8 Line 4 (T)
Horse 9 No Line
Horse 10 Line 3

After hides
Primary / Total energy

 PRX1114 4 8.3 D CL 3+F $23,000 CP=$7,500 1:46PM

                    TOTAL ENERGY and PRIMARY FACTORS (VAL4)

                               │           PRIMARY FACTORS          │   │SUPP│
┌─┬───────────┬───┬────────┐   ├───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬───┬──┬─┤   ├──┬─┤
│#│PN NAME LdT│SPR│ Total R│   │EPR│LPR│CPR│ TT│ HE│ FW│ FX│   │LS│R│   │LS│R│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│1│ 2 PROUD3  │ 73│161.67-1│   │  4│  2│  4│  2│  1│  2│  3│   │18│2│   │12│2│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│2│ 3 BURN 4p │ 76│160.14-4│   │  1│  5│  2│  4│  4│  5│  4│   │25│5│   │21│4│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│3│ 5 E LIZ2  │ 74│161.37-2│   │  3│  3│  3│  2│  3│  3│  2│   │19│3│   │13│3│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│4│ 6 RICH 3  │ 68│159.18-5│   │  5│  1│  5│  3│  1│  4│  5│   │24│4│   │22│5│
├─┼───────────┼───┼────────┤   ├───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┼───┤   ├──┼─┤   ├──┼─┤
│5│ 8 ECHAL4  │ 77│161.34-3│   │  2│  4│  1│  1│  2│  1│  1│   │12│1│   │ 7│1│
└─┴───────────┴───┴────────┘   └───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴───┴──┴─┘   └──┴─┘

IMG - beard 
              PRX1114 4 8.3 D CL 3+F $23,000 CP=$7,500 1:46PM

                       INCREMENTAL MATCH-UP GRAPH (VAL4)
┌───────────┬────────────────────┬─────────────────────┬──────────────────────┐
│# PNcNAME L│         1F         │         2F          │     3F+TOTAL PACE    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│1  2 PROUD3│      4->           │                  1->│               2->    │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│2  3 BURN 4│                 1->│     4->             │ 5->                  │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│3  5 E LIZ2│          3->       │             2->     │           3->        │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│4  6 RICH 3│  5->               │ 5->                 │      4->             │
├───────────┼────────────────────│─────────────────────┼──────────────────────│
│5  8 ECHAL4│              2->   │         3->         │                   1->│
└───────────┴────────────────────┴─────────────────────┴──────────────────────┘

2 and 3 re both hides - nowin bets
I will take a 5 horse exbox 2 3 5 8 10

COMPLETED: c01a3-786df
PRX
#4
$1 Exacta BX, 2, 3, 5, 8, 10 none $20.00
$7.50
- $12.50

[The Pook]

Tim,

It's just not fair man. You are the lone winner with a beautiful deduction and analysis and instead of the ML price of $10 you get $3.40. %@*//&6@!!!! There is no way that horse is worth betting at that price.

Most of us had the #3 who had some kind of compromised start where she burned up all her energy trying to catch the 10. She did have the proper permit.......Burn Permit ......Oh God, I have to get out more. Anyways as Bill V pointed out that #10 did not help. Your #2 was dominant so the #3 with a perfect race may still not have pulled it off.

Sorry about the crap price but congrats anyway.

Pook