Points not averages

[Bill V.]

Hi Mick and Ted
In the New RDSS documentation files I disagree with your
explanations of the ratings we see on the PMTR/TPR Tab
these are not averages ratings.

You wrote .
LPR – Late Pace Rating, a rating based on the average of the horse’s Second Call and Third Fraction velocities, i.e. SC + F3 / 2.


The EPR ratings are a points value of the second call from a 100 point scale chart
The chart rates a second call of 44 seconds for sprints and 109 for routes as 100 points.
Every 1/5 of a second slower than a 44 or 109 gets a 1 point deduction from the starting point of 100

An example would be a horse run a 45 second call in a sprint on the lead
This would be 5 fifths slower than a 44,so a horse that runs a 45 second call would get 95 points.

The LPR is also a point value. It is based on a different 100 point scale
The LPR chart is distance adjusted based on a deceleration formula. On this chart, 1 point is added or deducted based on how fast the horse ran the 3rd fraction.
Lets say a horse runs a 3rd fraction in 25 seconds
in a 6 furlong race a 3rd fraction of 25 equals 85 points
In a 1 mile race 85 points means a 26.0 3rd fraction
Those are the raw point values RDSS does all the DTV and ITV adjustments automatically
a formula of 65% and 35% of the EPR and LPR are used for sprints
and 60 and 40 % in routes

Here is an example
Lets use line 1 for Swell
The horse was on the lead at the second call did not lose of gain lengths in the 3rd fraction so this is an easy one .
The DTV was a fast -10 and the line comes from today's track Parx so there
is no ITV

46.2 ( fifths ) on the lead = 88 points DTV-10 No ITV 65% = 92 EPR
Swell ran the 3rd fraction in 25.2 seconds (fifths) on the lead no beaten lengths
71.4 - 46.2 = 25.2
On the FFR (LPR ) chart a 6 furlong 25.2 = 83 points DTV-10 No ITV 35% = 85.5 points

TPR is EP points + LP points
92 Points
85.5 points
----------
177.5 points

[Ted Craven]

You're right Bill. I brought that to Mick's attention in some feedback notes on LPR and E/L. I understand he's correcting that plus making some other additions, as we speak. I'll alert folks when a Documentation update is in place.

Thanks for the sharp eyes -- it takes a community ... !

Ted

[mick]

Thanks, Bill.

Correction made and revised version sent to Ted this afternoon for his review.

[Bill V.]

Hi Mick and Ted

I appreciate the efforts you guys put into this document.
Its a real nice tool for the Sartin Methodology and RDSS

Big thank you

Bill

[mick]

Bill,

Thank you. I look forward to seeing you at Saratoga.

[Ted Craven]

Documentation updated. Thanks Mick!

Ted

[Jeebs]

I thought that when a DTV was fast, the rating goes down to compensate, and when the DTV is slow, the rating goes up to compensate?

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Jeebs

I thought that when a DTV was fast, the rating goes down to compensate, and when the DTV is slow, the rating goes up to compensate?

Hi jeebs, Great observation. Please don't get me riled up about the Trackmaster DTV and Intertrack adjustments. They are not the same as the DRF ones
They are all we have so we just have to accept them if we use RDSS

Yes If the DTV is a minus the numbers should be slowed down
The track is listed as "good" Maybe Trackmaster besides a final time par
and a track to track adjustment table , maybe they also make adjustments for the track condition . I think they also have some kind of race par mixed in But I may be mistaken

Anyway lets look at another example and maybe we can see what is up

Lets look at line 1 for this horse

RDSS gives it just slightly higher readouts than I did using a calculator
but RDSS/Trackmaster is much more accurate since they are using 10ths
I used fifths so I had to round up and down

Here is my work up for line 1

46.6 or 46.3 in 5ths = 87
113.2 or 113.1 in 5ths - 46.3 = 26.3 3rd fraction = 77 + 1 beaten length (rounded up) = 76 LPR

So For Whateveryouwant since it ran on a slow 19 DTV the numbers are adjusted up

Raw Adjusted
EPR 87 goes to 94.5 Because 65% of 19 =12.35 but we are using 1/2 of the DTV and Track to track so 12.35/2 = 6.175
LPR 76 goes to 80.2 We only use 35% of 19 = 6.65 /2 = 3.32

87 + 6.175 = 93.2
76 + 3.32 = 79 .3

The numbers are slightly off but relatively the same
The difference on RDSS is +14.5 Early and with my calculations 13.9 Early

[Mitch44]

I'm surprised they take it to zero. We use to take it to 17 which was the average daily know variant. Really doesn't make a difference as long as their consistent in their approach.
Mitch44

[Bill V.]

Hi Mitch
In Pace Makes The Race a DTV of 17, 18 and 19 get no adjustment

I guess Trackmaster figured the would normalize these 3 numbers
as their zero, This is why the DRF system will show different numbers than RDSS

BTW I ran every raw pace line into Entropy . Entropy does not use a DTV
Like my example the EPR and LPR numbers are different, but the early
late difference is pretty consistent,
I learn this a long time ago. After many hours of trying to figure out what RDSS was doing with the Trackmaster DTV,
I came to the conclusion that as long as I look at the numbers represent the concept the actual numbers are unimportant

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