Extreme Pace Handicapping

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by 1retired

Mike

Thanks for your continued responses. I understand handicapping concepts and theories much better when I see them applied to an actual race. Could you provide the workup of just one race in which you incorporated whatever concepts and theories that you use from Randy Giles' "Extreme Pace Handicapping along with the Sartin Methodology and RDSS to get the winner of a race.

I am coming around to the idea that the Runninbg Style of horses is just as important as the pace numbers and factors that we use to arrive at our picks for the winner of a race. Tom Brohamer talked about this in terms of looking at and evaluating the running style of the horses in the race as the first handicapping step. Further, the Hat talked about looking at the past performances from the left side of the past performances to the right, not vice versa. It is just as important to know how a horse got to his finish of the race as the finish itself, in fact, more important.

To that end, I have an example race workup or partial workup, to use as an example. It is from For the Lead's thread "Why Not Maidens" dtd. 1/23/13, POst #46. It discusses the handicapping of a 6F dirt sprint race for 16,000 Mainden Claimers at Aqueduct on Feb 16, 2013, 10th race.

The eventual winner of the race in quesstion, Bwana Booyah, led at the break and led at the first two calls by 2 lengths at each call and finished 7th in his prior tandem race by 6.4 lengths. He was designated by Running Style as an E5. There was no other early speed in the race. The fractional calls of the race were 23.4 and 46.7 with a final time, I beliebve of 1:12.8.

The eventual 3rd place finisher in Bwana's race was King Keene who was had a running style of EP2 in the prior tandem race in which Bwana finished 7th. He was 2nd at both the 1st and the 2nd call.

The eventual 2nd place finisher of the race on Feb 16, was dropping from a 35,000MC (not the tandem race) and finished 3rd in that race. His runnning style designation was an S1 runner.

Just looking at the running styles and nothing else, it was clear what Bwana Booyah had to do in order to win the race on Feb 16. He simply had to slow down a little bit in his 1st and 2nd fractions and he would.have a lot more energy left to finish the race and win it. There is no indication of the E/L Difference Graph in the workup of this race. However, if it had been available, I'm certain that it would have shown that Bwanah had a ton of extra early energy, much more than any other horse in the race. He just had to throttle back on the first 2 calls a little bit,and he could go wire to wire, which he did. .
He paid over 21-1 to win. To me, this is an excellent example of using the E/L Difference graph and the significant extra early energy that this horse had to win the race. The fractions for the winning race on Feb 16 were 23.9. 47.8 and 1:13.4.

Does this example race that I have provided show up in any context in Randy Giles' book?.

Dave v

In the book, it focused more on taking advantage of running style mismatches and locating lone running styles no matter where they were in the pack.

Without getting too particular in the book, he seemed to recognize the velocity of the pace as important in Chapter 1
but in the rest of the book it was all about the Quirin points, pace pictures, and running style labels.
He basically used his PPG numbers solely to determine how hot the pace should be.

If that works for Giles and others I won't argue with'em. Not for me.

[MJS6916]

Also Dave, you won't see an energy distribution nor E/L graph type number analysis anywhere in Giles' book.

[MJS6916]

Originally Posted by 1retired

Mike

Many thanks. You've given a lot of stuff so far. Give me some time to digest this. I'm considering buying the internet PDF version of the book which costs something like $9.50 or $10.

,

I've done more writing and studying lately than handicapping.

The very second I'm done with some other work I gotta do,
I'll be able to discuss some races to handicap or review in detail.

I promise you, I can't wait for it much longer. Doing my level best to pull that day to sooner.

Remember, just Chapter 1 & 5 is more than worth what you'll pay for that book.

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by 1retired

Mike

Thanks for your continued responses. I understand handicapping concepts and theories much better when I see them applied to an actual race. Could you provide the workup of just one race in which you incorporated whatever concepts and theories that you use from Randy Giles' "Extreme Pace Handicapping along with the Sartin Methodology and RDSS to get the winner of a race.

I am coming around to the idea that the Runninbg Style of horses is just as important as the pace numbers and factors that we use to arrive at our picks for the winner of a race. Tom Brohamer talked about this in terms of looking at and evaluating the running style of the horses in the race as the first handicapping step. Further, the Hat talked about looking at the past performances from the left side of the past performances to the right, not vice versa. It is just as important to know how a horse got to his finish of the race as the finish itself, in fact, more important.

To that end, I have an example race workup or partial workup, to use as an example. It is from For the Lead's thread "Why Not Maidens" dtd. 1/23/13, POst #46. It discusses the handicapping of a 6F dirt sprint race for 16,000 Mainden Claimers at Aqueduct on Feb 16, 2013, 10th race.

The eventual winner of the race in quesstion, Bwana Booyah, led at the break and led at the first two calls by 2 lengths at each call and finished 7th in his prior tandem race by 6.4 lengths. He was designated by Running Style as an E5. There was no other early speed in the race. The fractional calls of the race were 23.4 and 46.7 with a final time, I beliebve of 1:12.8.

The eventual 3rd place finisher in Bwana's race was King Keene who was had a running style of EP2 in the prior tandem race in which Bwana finished 7th. He was 2nd at both the 1st and the 2nd call.

The eventual 2nd place finisher of the race on Feb 16, was dropping from a 35,000MC (not the tandem race) and finished 3rd in that race. His runnning style designation was an S1 runner.

Just looking at the running styles and nothing else, it was clear what Bwana Booyah had to do in order to win the race on Feb 16. He simply had to slow down a little bit in his 1st and 2nd fractions and he would.have a lot more energy left to finish the race and win it. There is no indication of the E/L Difference Graph in the workup of this race. However, if it had been available, I'm certain that it would have shown that Bwanah had a ton of extra early energy, much more than any other horse in the race. He just had to throttle back on the first 2 calls a little bit,and he could go wire to wire, which he did. .
He paid over 21-1 to win. To me, this is an excellent example of using the E/L Difference graph and the significant extra early energy that this horse had to win the race. The fractions for the winning race on Feb 16 were 23.9. 47.8 and 1:13.4.

Does this example race that I have provided show up in any context in Randy Giles' book?.

Dave v

I fished out that race from the Example Races RDSS Teaching Forum database. If only there were a way to get a link to that specific Thread or set of posts (oh wait, there IS a way: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...7&postcount=15) -- THEN we could know of any scratches, pacelines selected, Results, etc, etc. I spent 5 minutes looking for it and could not find.

Over to you 1retired (i.e. since you know where that thread is, please post the link, per the instructions I gave). Then, perhaps more useful discussion ensues ...



Ted

[Ted Craven]

Thanks Buffaloxp! Here is the link: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...9&postcount=46