New Program /workout %

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Ted, if you don't mind a suggestion... I would put in another color code at the high end, like above 89% or something like that.

Thanks, will look at that!

Ted

[Mitch44]

It's hard to put an exact color code to a specific number. The reason is the class factor, better horses work faster and have speed to spare whereas the cheaper horses tend to work slower.
I.e. As an example, I have found a distinct difference between MD Clm and MSW type races through some rigorist studies, as to their w/o %.

A horse's condition is forever changing do to different physical problems. Once over that their speed in both workouts and a race improve. A change or improvement is important. In Ted's example above is a good one where the 1 horse worked 82% and its best w/o rating since last race. Perhaps a best work for that horse should be in green?

It's an art to fit these works into the form cycle and that's where it pays. Of course, a maiden should have a gate work and layoff horses a 5F work is nice. If a horse is always working a 90 % it less meaningful than one that dosen't and works a 90%.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Normally I don't specifically look for this angle on workouts. What I do is handicap a card or race and when this appears I employ it.

I can actually visually look at a workout or group of and make the determination. That can be deceptive however and many borderline cases must be done by hand which is tedious. With Ted's expansion of this it allows for spot play angles, no mistakes in rating as its computer driven and if correctly programmed never makes a mistake. The color code enhancement makes this stuff just jump off the page at you. The underline enhancement aides in and narrows focus to specific workouts.

For the past week or so I've actually been hunting rather than just taking them as they come along and sending Ted reports. It gets all kinds of prices. One day I played 3 tracks, and it got 4 winners of $4.80, 4.80 and 3.60 & 7.00. You might say, that's nothing. Well, I'll take $7.00 and one of those low paying ones it keyed a nice $25 EX. . When playing 3 tracks there's no time to view DD metrics. Some other nice payoffs $17.40, 31.20, 18.00, 9.80, 18.20.

Yesterday I decided to play KD, full fields mean nice prices, plus big purses, top jocks and trainers.

"The Monkey" did his regular, w/ 3 nice winners. One off 152 days ($21.10), another off 105 days and a repeater ($7.74) and a stretch-out with a 68.7% Med. ($16.38) So much for repeater, horses off layoffs over 90 days and stretch outs and a profitable day.

My way of sharing and it may reduce some profits, but many won't take the time to learn it or employ it. Plus, there are other ways to profit. Take notice of improved speed, and tools in the box such as %Med.


COMPLETED:a3fa0-47d19 KD #10 $8 Win 7, 9 none $16.00
$65.52
+ $49.52
COMPLETED:ee94d-b63ea WO #4 $1 Exacta 6, WT, 2, 5 none $2.00
$0.00
- $2.00
COMPLETED:c2cac-e2f7e WO #4 $2 Exacta 2, 5, WT, 6 none $4.00
$0.00
- $4.00
COMPLETED:31b89-d877b KD #10 $1 Exacta 7, 9, WT, 7, 9 none $2.00
$0.00
- $2.00
COMPLETED:80aad-20ffa KD #10 $3 Exacta 7, 9, WT, 3 none $6.00
$120.54
+ $114.54
COMPLETED:a3bd1-5da59 KD #10 $1 Exacta 3, WT, 7, 9 none $2.00
$0.00
- $2.00
COMPLETED:04496-24d52 KD #9 $2 Win 9, 11 none $4.00
$21.10
+ $17.10

Mitch44

[raceman5]

Job Mitch.

Bob

[Mitch44]

I played 4 tracks today and 36 races on the fly today and was down. Managed a real nice hit on the last race of the day to end up losing $ $1.83. And who says you can't make money on favorites, # 11 paid $ 4.30 and triggered a $ 59.00 EX. The 4 & 11 were the only two qualifiers in this race. Did this the other day to snag a $25 Ex. Who is the only horses that can beat the top horse, is always a valid question?
Coming in next update for the program. A Monkey dart special.

COMPLETED:948ec-b3f41 SAR #13 $4 Exacta 11, WT, 4, 7, 8 none $12.00
$118.00
+ $106.00
COMPLETED:194cf-36afd SAR #13 $3 Exacta 4, 11, WT, 4, 11 none $6.00
$88.50
+ $82.50

Mitch44 "AKA "The Monkey"

[Lt1]

Nice comeback Mitch.
Tim

[Mitch44]

Thanks Tim. I'm never away more than one race to get that profit. Yesterday was just an action day for the fun of it. Otherwise, I get bored sometimes and also bored with complete handicapping as it burns me out. A couple day of that and I need a break. Had some other nice winners and Ex. to go with it, $31.80 and $18.80 winners.

That "Monkey" must workout at times to stay sharp.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

That last race I had more time for more detail analysis. The other 3 tracks had finished up and at SAR it was the last race. I had about a 1/2 hour for some extra viewing of PP's. Hard to get that when playing 36 races and 4 tracks. Several times I had more than one race running at the same time.

Our sucess Tim is that we do that analysis and aren't into instant gratification. One must do the work to reap the awards. Even playing 36 races and 4 tracks needs some quick review and a plan. Plan and then work the plan.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

For success in this game, we must come to grips with the form factor. The great Ray Taulbot said; Every race a horse runs either contributes to its good condition or takes away from it.

The form factor is the hardest thing to gauge in horse racing because it’s in a state of constant change. Consistency is rewarded however even the greats of racing have lost races. Someone stated, “It’s like trying to nail jelly to a tree.”

Back in the 1960’s and 70’s there was very little information, unlike today. Those from that era, that would be us old farts, were more attuned to condition of horses, proper placement etc. It’s a bygone analysis as everyone now is into instant gratification. Even Sartin practitioners that started doing all his readouts using just a hand calculator tend to do better than those that have it all done for them with instant readouts. We learn by doing and it provides understanding and insights others just can’t comprehend. LT1 and I are good examples of this. We’re both are also open minded to new things and don’t stand fast. Those that don’t adapt get run over. We also work at the game, as soon as you mention work their gone. Sartin material is really difficult to grasp therefore they tend to depart rather quickly. Most trades require years of education and practical application.

Like hundreds of angles nothing works all the time. We must capture those that are getable for success. This workout angle will assist you in accessing the form factor. One has to learn how to use the tools in our toolbox such as %Med. and % of workouts. Only through practical application will you reap the rewards of it. Study it and employ it and you’ll gain insights for determining the form factor and whether the horse is improving or declining.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Perspective:

A horse works out and finishes 3 of 65= 95%. The more horses it beats the higher the % I.e. the one that finished 65 gets a zero.

The best way to put this in perspective is to think of this workout as a mini race with 65 horses entered. No difference that an actual field of 12 in a real race. In a real race the horse that finishes last earns nothing, the more horses that a horse beats the more money it earns and the higher the %. If it finishes 1 st it gets 100 % and the highest purse money. A horse that beats only 6 horses would get 50% and earn nothing.

In the above example of 3 of 65 = 95% is a reflection of the horse's ability. The track is only open for a few hours a day for training. Therefore, they all competed on the same track, surface conditions, distance, same variant and against various classes of horses just like a real race. It's an indication of form and readiness.

Note: Mentally a gate work should be given some extra credit because the time is earned from a standing start whereas they're normally traveling along or galloping and then break off into their run or workout. Ted is going to put any gate work in a bold or highlighted color as a reminder. It's impossible to gauge the effect of a gate work into a rating because some are slow starters whose ESP maybe Sustained while another may be an Early and break much faster. Or it could have broken bad as they sometimes do in a real race but not always. The % ranking basically considers or covers this but a mental note with extra credit is the best way to handle this. Like a Doctor's perspective of doing no harm, is the best approach here.

Those that can analyze the form factor and consider it through both workouts and actual races enables them to elevate horses and downgrade others and to separate those pesky ties or top 3 or 4 contenders. All horses are either improving or declining in form.

Mitch44