Synthesis - for Dan Boals - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

DanBoals · 12-06-2022, 05:41 PM

Hey Ray,

Good call on the 3, I am pretty sure I would not have had that horse in real time. I am always amazed at how other people do well at Parx. My dad liked that track, I know Tim here on the forums plays it a lot and does really well, but I have never had much luck there. I have seen people say that because Parx runs year round, that the horses there take turns beating up on each other and therefore are especially tough when they go to other tracks, the same with the handicappers there, to survive, they have to be a step above.

Let me look at the 3, Pontiffany screen by screen on RDSS and see what it shows.

Entry screen - off 25 days, reasonable, 3 year old filly, ok probably not broken down at 3, P1 running style, m/l odds of 8-1, which is actually relevant at a lot of tracks. I find that at most tracks I have bet that the winners typically have a morning line of 8-1 or less. Like well over 90% of the winners at the tracks I bet. They might go off at 30-1 or something crazy, but the morning lines are almost always 8-1 or lower for the winners.

Horse's page - never run here at Parx. Broke mc10/13 at ELP in the mud July 9th at a race with basically same RC as today's at 5.5f on dirt pressing the pace against 8 horses to win by a head, ridden by Chel Bailey with an adjusted SR of 79 off a class drop and a cut back from a CD 6.5f dirt race at mc20/42. where it did ok early (up to second call) then petered out. What would have been called a + within a 0 race. It would be nice to be able to rate the races as +, o or + within o, so we could show the form cycle on the screen. What I notice most is that every race since the maiden claiming win, the horse's adjusted speed rating has declined until it was claimed. This is NOT good. The good news is that the new trainer is hitting 41% winners !!! Normally I only look at jockeys to see if the horse has done well with this jockey in the past, or if all the races with this jockey have been bad. Some jockeys get some horses, some horses like some jockeys. I don't care what the jockey's win% is, I just care how this combination of horse and jockey has done in the past, and in this case, this seems like a good jockey, but he has never ridden the horse before, so no info there. I wish I knew who the previous trainer was... for me, this is the biggest problem with RDSS, you can see the previous jockeys, but no clue who trained the horse before. I am assuming that since the current trainer is hitting at 41%, wow, that he is an upgrade. Wish I knew, but nothing is perfect I guess. My thinking is that they didn't buy the horse down in Kentucky and bring her up to Pennsylvania because they thought it was a lost cause.

Analysis - Original screen - I used the last line that the horse was claimed on so it shows it ran a pretty even race finishing 5th of 12 at CD at higher class race than today, trackmaster rated it at 76 vs. the 69 today and it had a 31k purse vs. the 24k today. So that is ok so far. Its odds were 7.2-1 vs. 8-1 morning line today, so ok. The raw fractions it ran against are faster than than any other paceline I used.

Analysis - Adjusted screen - the 3' s paceline was the fastest adjusted PoR of all the lines. So at this point we know that it was claimed 25 days ago in Kentucky, given to a 41% trainer ( wish the hell I knew who trained her before) given a new jockey that doesn't suck, and plopped down at Parx without any recorded workouts in the meantime. Its last race was at a higher level than this where it ran even against the fastest pace of race.

From what I can see, it has never been in a tandem with any of these other horses.

Analysis - Velocity and Energy Ratios, Horse screeen - 4th best second call time and within 1 fps of the best early horse's second call time. Total speed is also within 1 fps of best TS time. The %Med is 69.8 which seems a bit forward, but on cheap horses in sprints that seems to be more the norm. DCL of 86.9 seems pretty average for this level in a sprint as well, so at this point the horse is a contender to me, but not a stand out.

Analysis - PoR - this is interesting. The only other horses that had close to as fast a race to run against was the favorite, the 7 coming over from Pen. and the 8 who was never in the 7f LRL race it starts 5th of 8 and finished 7th of 8 in.

Analysis - Energy - doesn't give me any clues to 3 winning.

Analysis - Segments - shows he will be up close based on last race at the second call at least.

Analysis - BL/BL - way down the list.

Analysis - RX - EPR and PoR

I would say you did a great job getting the 3 in this. RDSS would not have gotten it in my opinion.

The horse was a contender based on its line which Howard would have called a + within a 0 on the form cycle. Visually, it ran even against the fastest pace of race at a higher class level where it was claimed. They moved her to a new circuit, gave her a good trainer and a good jockey. It is surprising to me there are no recorded works for the new trainer at the new track. Cue the conspiracy music

.

The horse had won at a much faster speed rating 5 months ago when she broke her maiden, but seems to have gone down hill since. Once again, not being able to see who trained her previously is a huge problem (one of the only problems really) in RDSS.

Without having a track profile, I would say this was a contender but unless her energy profile matched what was winning at Prx, I would not have bet her.

Excellent call Ray, good handicapping.

ray lopez · 12-06-2022, 06:36 PM

Hi Ted and Dan,

Doc taught me this way back then when i asked him that i was getting frustrated with Thoromation II-A.I didn't know if i should be using 1(no adjustment) or 2(auto-adjust)...
In this race sample 12/5 PRX R 11...I used the 2 adjust...and going to the pre-play screen
that appeared first,#3 Ponti was second...and Doc told me to check the Total EXDC and make sure that #3 is top 2...and as we can see it was top...if it was not in the top 2 horses.i have to use the 1-no adjust...it does not work 100 %,but i went back and checked on my last 83 bets and if i have followed it and bet them i would have won 56 of them.I know i should do more races to validate these...

Ray

ray lopez · 12-06-2022, 06:54 PM

but back then,i was using Energy and EXDC and only playing on the weekends when i was free.I was so busy with work,family and taking care of my two kids...i was following so many teachers like the late Dick Schmidt and Tom Hambleton.I was not really serious about it then.I will make a few dollars but i was not into it then...now i just looked back and remember this incident with the Doc and i wished i followed all the things he was trying to teach me...

ray lopez · 12-06-2022, 07:05 PM

...and again...if we really analyze it,it seems that we only get 'it' when we are at the end of our career...when we are old and retired...if only we knew then what we know now...all well,i guess that is life...

shoeless · 12-06-2022, 10:18 PM

Nice hit Ray

DanBoals · 12-06-2022, 10:45 PM

That is pretty cool. As a math guy, 56 out of 83 with something specific like this is mathematically significant. It never hurts to keep records and see if the percentages drop over time, but IMO if you hit 56 out of 83, especially if this mutuel is not an aberration, that would be something I think would be worth betting on.

I didn't know Schmidt, but I took Hambleton's class at the Everywoman Village community college there in LA in the 90's. He was using TPR still, and was selling his software on hand-helds, but it was an interesting class. Like you, I was not serious then, not like now. At this point, I am trying to learn everything I can and hit the highest number of races I can. I am making a little off of it, mostly because I am bad at betting. Practice makes perfect though.

Look forward to comparing notes in the future.

Dan

ray lopez · 12-07-2022, 03:20 AM

Dan,

This race was the Synthesis vector graph i posted in the beginning of this post...11/30 PRX Race 7 6f CL16K...no adjust and look at TOTAL EXDC and TOTAL KPD...The horse paid $31.60.

ray lopez · 12-07-2022, 03:53 AM

Dan,

You have the Synthesis program with the vector graph and i have Thoromation II-A.I am glad they were both old programs because they were copy protected...You know what that means,Dan...now that we are old,we can make some money that we never made when we were younger with these programs...we can fulfill the dreams we had when we first got in the methodology...

ray lopez · 12-07-2022, 11:17 AM

I use RDSS too and i think it's a very powerful tool and no disrespect to RDSS users.The other day,i was at Red Rock Racebook here in Las Vegas and i saw a guy using RDSS.But i am a win bettor and it's really tough making money betting two horses to win now.Every mainstream factor has been evaluated,dissected and scrutinized and pounded some more so many times and it's reflected on the payoffs nowadays...i find that the "old" Sartin programs still make picks that most programs will not get.

12-06-2022, 05:41 PM	#11
DanBoals Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Reno, NV Posts: 305	11th Race at PRX Hey Ray, Good call on the 3, I am pretty sure I would not have had that horse in real time. I am always amazed at how other people do well at Parx. My dad liked that track, I know Tim here on the forums plays it a lot and does really well, but I have never had much luck there. I have seen people say that because Parx runs year round, that the horses there take turns beating up on each other and therefore are especially tough when they go to other tracks, the same with the handicappers there, to survive, they have to be a step above. Let me look at the 3, Pontiffany screen by screen on RDSS and see what it shows. Entry screen - off 25 days, reasonable, 3 year old filly, ok probably not broken down at 3, P1 running style, m/l odds of 8-1, which is actually relevant at a lot of tracks. I find that at most tracks I have bet that the winners typically have a morning line of 8-1 or less. Like well over 90% of the winners at the tracks I bet. They might go off at 30-1 or something crazy, but the morning lines are almost always 8-1 or lower for the winners. Horse's page - never run here at Parx. Broke mc10/13 at ELP in the mud July 9th at a race with basically same RC as today's at 5.5f on dirt pressing the pace against 8 horses to win by a head, ridden by Chel Bailey with an adjusted SR of 79 off a class drop and a cut back from a CD 6.5f dirt race at mc20/42. where it did ok early (up to second call) then petered out. What would have been called a + within a 0 race. It would be nice to be able to rate the races as +, o or + within o, so we could show the form cycle on the screen. What I notice most is that every race since the maiden claiming win, the horse's adjusted speed rating has declined until it was claimed. This is NOT good. The good news is that the new trainer is hitting 41% winners !!! Normally I only look at jockeys to see if the horse has done well with this jockey in the past, or if all the races with this jockey have been bad. Some jockeys get some horses, some horses like some jockeys. I don't care what the jockey's win% is, I just care how this combination of horse and jockey has done in the past, and in this case, this seems like a good jockey, but he has never ridden the horse before, so no info there. I wish I knew who the previous trainer was... for me, this is the biggest problem with RDSS, you can see the previous jockeys, but no clue who trained the horse before. I am assuming that since the current trainer is hitting at 41%, wow, that he is an upgrade. Wish I knew, but nothing is perfect I guess. My thinking is that they didn't buy the horse down in Kentucky and bring her up to Pennsylvania because they thought it was a lost cause. Analysis - Original screen - I used the last line that the horse was claimed on so it shows it ran a pretty even race finishing 5th of 12 at CD at higher class race than today, trackmaster rated it at 76 vs. the 69 today and it had a 31k purse vs. the 24k today. So that is ok so far. Its odds were 7.2-1 vs. 8-1 morning line today, so ok. The raw fractions it ran against are faster than than any other paceline I used. Analysis - Adjusted screen - the 3' s paceline was the fastest adjusted PoR of all the lines. So at this point we know that it was claimed 25 days ago in Kentucky, given to a 41% trainer ( wish the hell I knew who trained her before) given a new jockey that doesn't suck, and plopped down at Parx without any recorded workouts in the meantime. Its last race was at a higher level than this where it ran even against the fastest pace of race. From what I can see, it has never been in a tandem with any of these other horses. Analysis - Velocity and Energy Ratios, Horse screeen - 4th best second call time and within 1 fps of the best early horse's second call time. Total speed is also within 1 fps of best TS time. The %Med is 69.8 which seems a bit forward, but on cheap horses in sprints that seems to be more the norm. DCL of 86.9 seems pretty average for this level in a sprint as well, so at this point the horse is a contender to me, but not a stand out. Analysis - PoR - this is interesting. The only other horses that had close to as fast a race to run against was the favorite, the 7 coming over from Pen. and the 8 who was never in the 7f LRL race it starts 5th of 8 and finished 7th of 8 in. Analysis - Energy - doesn't give me any clues to 3 winning. Analysis - Segments - shows he will be up close based on last race at the second call at least. Analysis - BL/BL - way down the list. Analysis - RX - EPR and PoR I would say you did a great job getting the 3 in this. RDSS would not have gotten it in my opinion. The horse was a contender based on its line which Howard would have called a + within a 0 on the form cycle. Visually, it ran even against the fastest pace of race at a higher class level where it was claimed. They moved her to a new circuit, gave her a good trainer and a good jockey. It is surprising to me there are no recorded works for the new trainer at the new track. Cue the conspiracy music . The horse had won at a much faster speed rating 5 months ago when she broke her maiden, but seems to have gone down hill since. Once again, not being able to see who trained her previously is a huge problem (one of the only problems really) in RDSS. Without having a track profile, I would say this was a contender but unless her energy profile matched what was winning at Prx, I would not have bet her. Excellent call Ray, good handicapping.

12-06-2022, 06:36 PM	#12
ray lopez Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 846	Hi Ted and Dan, Doc taught me this way back then when i asked him that i was getting frustrated with Thoromation II-A.I didn't know if i should be using 1(no adjustment) or 2(auto-adjust)... In this race sample 12/5 PRX R 11...I used the 2 adjust...and going to the pre-play screen that appeared first,#3 Ponti was second...and Doc told me to check the Total EXDC and make sure that #3 is top 2...and as we can see it was top...if it was not in the top 2 horses.i have to use the 1-no adjust...it does not work 100 %,but i went back and checked on my last 83 bets and if i have followed it and bet them i would have won 56 of them.I know i should do more races to validate these... Ray Attached Images

12-07-2022, 03:20 AM	#17
ray lopez Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 846	Dan, This race was the Synthesis vector graph i posted in the beginning of this post...11/30 PRX Race 7 6f CL16K...no adjust and look at TOTAL EXDC and TOTAL KPD...The horse paid $31.60. Attached Images

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12-06-2022, 06:54 PM	#13
ray lopez Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 846	but back then,i was using Energy and EXDC and only playing on the weekends when i was free.I was so busy with work,family and taking care of my two kids...i was following so many teachers like the late Dick Schmidt and Tom Hambleton.I was not really serious about it then.I will make a few dollars but i was not into it then...now i just looked back and remember this incident with the Doc and i wished i followed all the things he was trying to teach me...

12-06-2022, 07:05 PM	#14
ray lopez Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 846	...and again...if we really analyze it,it seems that we only get 'it' when we are at the end of our career...when we are old and retired...if only we knew then what we know now...all well,i guess that is life...

12-06-2022, 10:18 PM	#15
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Nice hit Ray

12-06-2022, 10:45 PM	#16
DanBoals Grade 1 Join Date: Apr 2009 Location: Reno, NV Posts: 305	That is pretty cool. As a math guy, 56 out of 83 with something specific like this is mathematically significant. It never hurts to keep records and see if the percentages drop over time, but IMO if you hit 56 out of 83, especially if this mutuel is not an aberration, that would be something I think would be worth betting on. I didn't know Schmidt, but I took Hambleton's class at the Everywoman Village community college there in LA in the 90's. He was using TPR still, and was selling his software on hand-helds, but it was an interesting class. Like you, I was not serious then, not like now. At this point, I am trying to learn everything I can and hit the highest number of races I can. I am making a little off of it, mostly because I am bad at betting. Practice makes perfect though. Look forward to comparing notes in the future. Dan

12-07-2022, 03:53 AM	#18
ray lopez Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 846	Dan, You have the Synthesis program with the vector graph and i have Thoromation II-A.I am glad they were both old programs because they were copy protected...You know what that means,Dan...now that we are old,we can make some money that we never made when we were younger with these programs...we can fulfill the dreams we had when we first got in the methodology...

12-07-2022, 11:17 AM	#19
ray lopez Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 846	I use RDSS too and i think it's a very powerful tool and no disrespect to RDSS users.The other day,i was at Red Rock Racebook here in Las Vegas and i saw a guy using RDSS.But i am a win bettor and it's really tough making money betting two horses to win now.Every mainstream factor has been evaluated,dissected and scrutinized and pounded some more so many times and it's reflected on the payoffs nowadays...i find that the "old" Sartin programs still make picks that most programs will not get.