RDSS2 - Adjusted Screen Question

[Ted Craven]

Here's a question, and answer:

Question:
I've been deep (with blinders on) into studying the Matchup and have one quick question 'cause I know you are busy. I pick pacelines and then hit the adjust button. I see all the horses' projected(?) times from their respective pace lines and X amount of beaten lengths under the Final column. Sometimes a horse will show the red (fastest) final time but several or even quite a few beaten lengths for that time, others will show a slower time and red (0) beaten lengths. My question is--what is the combination of final times and beaten lengths supposed to be telling me? I'd like to use the adjust capability in conjunction with the Matchup because I REALLY want to get The Hat's teachings down right.

Answer:
The Adjusted screen does NOT show times for the HORSE, those adjusted times are for the PACE-SETTER, i.e. the Pace of Race (PoR) in the same way as the Call Times on the Original screen are for the PoR and not the horse (i.e. for the horse who was in the lead at each call point). The colour coding for the adjusted running times show the ranks of the Top 4 times at each call point. In the Analysis version of the Adjusted screen, Tandem races stand out because they are all colour coded the same way.

The Beaten Lengths (BL) are how far behind the HORSE was to the adjusted times at each call point. The BL colour coding matches the POSITION of the horse at each call point, per the Original screen. All the adjusted times are projected to today’s distance and surface, and Daily Track and Inter-Track variants applied per your Configure Settings on Variants.

Except for a route line in today’s sprint race, the Beaten Lengths shown match what you find on the Original screen. For extracted sprints today (i.e. an original route line adjusted for today’s sprint race), RDSS uses half of the route’s 1st call beaten lengths (the 4f point) for the extracted sprint’s 2f and 4f adjusted beaten lengths, and half of the route’s 2nd call beaten lengths (6f point) for the sprint’s stretch and final adjusted beaten lengths.



THEN – these adjusted running times for the Pace of Race and the Beaten Lengths (adjusted, if required) are used to compute Velocities (both Horse PoH and Race PoR), which are then used to compute the various compound factors (EPR, LPR, CPR, FEW, FX, TPP, VDC, BL/BL, etc). That’s why the order of Tab screens (both for the horse and in the Analysis panel) generally proceed (left to right) from less (or non-) adjusted to more adjusted, more computed, more compounded and ultimately aggregated readouts (i.e. the Line Scores / Odds Line of the BL/BL screen).

Regarding your question as to what the combination of Final Times (and sectional times) and beaten lengths is telling you - on the Adjusted screen, you want to pay attention to horses with the faster call times, whose Beaten Lengths are low and preferably decreasing position to position. In general, this indicates horses who have run against a faster pace of race and who have closed against those paces. In the Analysis version of the Adjusted screen, horses whose call times are not coloured, or only yellow or bold (3rd and 4th ranked) are slower adjusted times than the red or green coloured times, and if the selected line (or lines) represent consistently and fairly what the horse might do today – these horses are disadvantaged when matched against the other horses showing more colour – AND their subsequent velocities and other compounded ratings and sorting will reflect that as well.

As always – be attentive to a positionally Early running horse who lead against the 1st and 2nd calls (even slower times) when no other horse runs like that, and check that the Segments screen shows the double-red 0.0s at the 1st and 2nd call points – such horses are at risk to ‘steal’ a race if no one will challenge them and then can slow down to conserve their energy.

Hope that helps!

Ted

[lone speed]

Ted...

Well said....

I just want to add that horses that faded against a super fast third fractions are dangerous in certain matchups...

For example...a horse loses only two or three lengths between the 2nd and final time in a Sprint race where the winner came home under 24 seconds in a six furlongs race is competitive..and warrants strong consideration as a contender....

Good skills...

[zimal2]

Ted,

I'm still unclear on how the adjustment for beaten lengths is made. If " RDSS uses half of the route’s 1st call beaten lengths (2f point in short routes, 4f in routes >= 9f) for the extracted sprint’s 2f and 4f adjusted beaten lengths, and half of the route’s 2nd call beaten lengths (4f point in short routes, 6f in routes >= 9f) for the sprint’s stretch and final adjusted beaten lengths." then with First Strikes last line shouldn't the adjusted beaten lengths be 1.3 (as it is) 1.8 (half of 3.5), 2.6 (half of 5.1) and 4.1(half of 8.1)? What am I missing?

[Ted Craven]

Welcome Zimal!

Thanks for your query - and I realize I mistakenly gave incorrect information in my first post about where a route's 1st call beaten lengths were measured (correct answer is the 4f point for ALL routes), and also where the 2nd call beaten lengths (correct answer is the 6f point for ALL routes).

Perhaps that lead to the confusion.

So, for the horse shown, its last line, its beaten lengths at the 1st Call point (the route 4f point) were: 2.6. Thus, we use half of 2.6 or 1.3 for the extracted sprint's beaten lengths at the 1st and 2nd call points (2f and 4f). The horse's beaten lengths at the 2nd Call point (the route 6f point) were 3.5. Thus, we use half of 3.5 or 1.75 (rounded up to 1.8) for display purposes, for the extracted sprint's beaten length stretch and final call points (6f and final times in this extracted 7f sprint). I believe you were thinking perhaps that each call point's beaten lengths were simply halved, which is not the case: we only use up to the 6f point of the route (which covers most, or more, of all sprints) and presumes (as a generality, not a specific fact) that the horse will be closer to the lead over the shorter distance.

Having fabricated some beaten lengths for our extracted sprint, we employ those beaten lengths when calculating velocity for the sprint's 1st call (2f point), 2nd call (4f point) and final time (and thus by extrapolation, the 2nd fraction and 3rd fractions). The stretch beaten lengths and time are used internally in one factor only - the V/DC factor, otherwise they are ignored in all other calculations of Fraction 3.

Hope that clarifies things, and my apologies for incorrect information originally (I corrected my post above, and noted the change I made).

I hope that explains this.

Ted

[zimal2]

Yes..much clearer ...thanks Ted