Misconceptions on horse racing and handicapping

[ScottB]

There are so many misconceptions on horse race handicapping. I believe it is because most handicappers and players are very opinionated. They want to protect their point of view and the way they play the game.

I got a call Thursday from my son who told me that he was talking to a guy Dave. That's what got me thinking about this subject. Dave was a guy I met at the Meadowlands in December of 2010 when I was playing simulcasting from there. Dave and I played together from 12/10 thru 3/12, 16 months.

You must have heard that you cannot make money betting favorites. Well guess what, Dave did just that. He was making money playing strictly favorites. Dave was partners with his father who devised a system to play favorites.

Only certain races were qualified for play and in the races that did qualify for play the favorite had to meet a list of rules to qualify for play. The system produced 57% winners.

Dave had patience and discipline. When he spotted a standout he bet them heavy.

[Mitch44]

Scott your post does not surprised me. I have always profoundly stated that all longshots are not created equal, nor are all favorites.Handicappers just except blindly any statements that come from the so called experts.


The average handicapper's problem is their inability to assess each horse and then assess the race as a whole. As an example a horse's odds can be 3/2 and be a tremendous overly at a 150% profit whereas another 3/2 horse may not have that clear advantage over its field. Like races and situations vary depending on the make up of a race. In essence all favorites are not created equal.


So yes I believe money can be made on favorites just not playing all favorites. Ditto for any horse racing angle, play or situation.


Mitch44

[Mitch44]

Todays Preakness is a classic example of a 3/2 favorite as noted in my previous post. My assessment said this horse was beatable and in tougher than last race. Also my distance factor went against the favorite Authentic.


I had the Preakness 4-8-9-3, result:

COMPLETED:fa17f-a3a91

PIM

#11

$7 Exacta

4, 8, WT, 3, 4, 8, 9

none

$42.00

$264.60

+ $222.60

Mitch44

[Lt1]

Outstanding work big guy.
Tim

[rmath]

Nice score Mitch
Rmath

[Mitch44]

Thanks Tim and Richie, greatly appreciated.

I'm surprised the Filly went up in odds as much as she did. She was a solid contender and in the top 3 of most readouts in RDSS.

Too many brought into the Fillies can't beat males nothing burger.Lt1 and I both had it because we trust the readouts and don't second guess ourselves and what we use. Contenders, pace lines, analysis of readouts and pull the trigger. Oh and some of that Voodoo magic I suppose. Against a fast pace I believe Authentic doesn't like being headed, once pass him she stole his heart.

Mitch44

[papajohn3times]

Great job Galen!! I managed to hit the double but only for 1$ 150.00 the funny thing is,
I tried to cancel my bets as I wanted to eliminate # 8 in the filly race but the funny thing is, it wouldn't cancel! I tried it 2 times, one with 10 minutes to post!

I have no idea why but this time I truly DID LOOK A GIFT HORSE IN THE MOUTH!!

[Mitch44]

Thanks John very much. I had the #4 (Filly) and 8 as top unset choices and the #9 3rd choice. Hey don't beat yourself up John as you made a very good bet but more important your analysis was terrific. Great job John. Wishing more success in the future.


Mitch44

[papajohn3times]

Thanks Galen! Coming from you inspires me to go forward!
John

[Dorianmode]

Originally Posted by ScottB

There are so many misconceptions on horse race handicapping. I believe it is because most handicappers and players are very opinionated. They want to protect their point of view and the way they play the game.

I got a call Thursday from my son who told me that he was talking to a guy Dave. That's what got me thinking about this subject. Dave was a guy I met at the Meadowlands in December of 2010 when I was playing simulcasting from there. Dave and I played together from 12/10 thru 3/12, 16 months.

You must have heard that you cannot make money betting favorites. Well guess what, Dave did just that. He was making money playing strictly favorites. Dave was partners with his father who devised a system to play favorites.

Only certain races were qualified for play and in the races that did qualify for play the favorite had to meet a list of rules to qualify for play. The system produced 57% winners.

Dave had patience and discipline. When he spotted a standout he bet them heavy.

Totally agree. About everything.
I know a group here was working on a way to "validate" favorites ... never heard what happened with that. If anyone has an idea, and tests it, (which is key), then so much the better.