Grass Races

[CEW]

Hi Mark -

Agreed on a lot of what you say. It really doesn't matter what was winning last last year or a while back. What matters is knowing how its running now. I found the inner at Saratoga running pretty early this season. Check out the 5th on Friday August 29th. I had seen enough wire to wire winners that I singled the #1 horse to win and place. I put him with #2 on top of the exacta over top of themselves plus the favorite. In the actual race, the 2 horse was 2 1/2 back at the 2nd call and caught the 1 horse at the wire with a head bob.

No. 2's median energy was 65.88% (rather sustained) but I included him because visually, he's an early presser. No. 1 was a 67.50%. Even when a horse wires the field on the grass, his energy distribution is usually sustained. But like you say or infer, that doesn't mean these are always closers.

My worst play of the year at Saratoga was not playing the no. 2 horse to win in this race. He paid 69.00 to win. But the other side of the coin was that I had my highest exacta of the season ($598.00).

I'll check out your posted race in a minute.

Best! Chuck

[Mark]

I subscribe to Jim Bradshaw's Match Up teachings. So I don't use any of the screens or factors in RDSS2 accept the Original Screen which is Raw Data. In 40 years of handicapping I think I have seen maybe a handful of truly biased race tracks. A number of those were drying out tracks that were extremely tiring or surfaces that had purposely been rolled and hardened. The bias in my view is created by the Match Up and the composition of the runners in the race. It is true that turf courses across the country dry out after the spring rains and get much harder and faster this time of the year. But handicapping in Southern California taught me that years ago. Particularly Hollywood and Del Mar are like extremely fast during the summer and fall meets.
Fast horses are fast horses whether running on dirt, poly or turf. If they are allowed to gallop along on a clear lead they will seldom be caught. Stretch gain is greatly over estimated due to the manner in which final fraction velocities are calculated. By the time the horses turn for home they are all decelerating so stretch gain in a combination of the leaders decelerating rapidly and the sustained runners decelerating less rapidly. It is an optical illusion. When a horse has to compete strongly for the early lead or in the turn, he is expending energy that will cause premature deceleration. That is what sets up the race for OTE type horses. Then generally the horse closest to the pace but not consumed by the speed duel will inherit the lead and win. If these Pressers get sucked along too fast too early then they too will succumb to the one run closer, who is a slow horse that gallops the first two fractions and is decelerating at that point the least rapidly of the group.
That is how I analyze a race. The race is usually over at the first call, however may extend to the 2nd depending on the composition of the field.

[Bill V.]

Hi Mark

I like your analysis of the FE race I won't bore the group with my entropy readouts here in the main forum but you are right on the money. The winner simply broke well from the 2 hole ( its my # 1 total energy and EP/DV )
and the tandem horses from the restricted 30 K stakes race just chased

Well done Mark

Bill