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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-17-2014, 03:35 AM   #1
Hoof 11
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Breeders' Stakes Aug 17/14

I’m sticking with my selection from the Prince of Wales Stakes, Smart Spree is back on familiar ground again on the somewhat firm turf course at Woodbine. Last time out he got nosed by Ami’s Holiday in the POW, and i expect a reversal of fortune today on the preferred surface. The bias on the turf course has been playing late this weekend and Smart Spree seems to have the advantage in that department, if he can regain his form from GP.

The two other contenders i like are Ami’s Holiday, who is training really well coming out of the POW, and you can never go wrong with the Carroll/Contreras combo, they were red hot on Saturday and maybe that will continue into today. Ivan Dalos’ barn has been very successful this season and this badboy is long overdue, it could very well be his day.

Niigon Express looks to be in form today coming off a short layoff from the Queens Plate, and could very well make some noise when everything is said and done.

9 – Smart Spree .... Win

9 / 2-8
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Old 08-17-2014, 12:54 PM   #2
polambi
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Hey...I really don't see how #9 is going to win. I hope for you that you're right. I came up with: 8-7-5

Good luck
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Old 08-17-2014, 01:10 PM   #3
Bill Lyster
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Marathoning, I see the 4 and 12, both of whom have run against fast paces and closed from mid pack to get lead in stretch. I see 8 as the deep closer who cannot make up enough ground to win it.

I am singling Imagining in the Sword Dancer at Saratoga.

Good luck today,
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Old 08-17-2014, 05:33 PM   #4
Hoof 11
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Hey Bill

Good call on the 4 and 12, but Contreras gets the job done on the 8, again. You had the Tri if you boxed it, well done.

As far as my 9 horse goes, another listless effort in the stretch, it's time to get off this gelding, atleast i didn't get suckered into playing the 10 Unikat, 2/1? Seriously? Last Place!

Congrats Josie!
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Old 08-17-2014, 05:38 PM   #5
mowens33
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I liked that 12!

I got greedy, and kept the 8 out on top?????????????????

Missed a good ticket.

Oh well that's racing
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Old 08-18-2014, 03:12 PM   #6
Bill Lyster
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Breeders Stakes analysis

My notes are on the attachment. Race is restricted to 3 YO of any sex foaled in Canada. So this really restricts the field. It would be like a state bred stake in places other than Kentucky, Florida, California and a limited few other areas.

We are looking for the best mile time, extracted preferably from a race longer than one mile, where the horse made up positions AND lengths (again preferably) or was on or near the lead at the mile call of the race.

Because of the state bred status of this race we want a horse that has either proven itself at this level or which has progressed through its conditions - mdn, nw1x, etc without too many hiccups.

In this field you will see a number of horses that ran well in races labeled "S" A 47,500 n2L, no horse is these races has beaten other than maidens. Look skeptically at any horse that has done well at this level and no higher. This level is used mostly by owners that do not want their horses claimed away from them. Its not unusual near the end of the meet to see year long aspirants at the A47,500n2L level dropped into claiming races for 20k or less. My guess is that winners at this level top out as 25,000 claimers, maybe a little more, maybe a little less. Unless the time of the race is exceptional horses from these races are usually not going to be competitive if there are enough horses of this race's caliber that are in form. There are not a lot of Woodbine races for straight Allowance nw1x. Horses with higher aspirations usually populate this last kind of race.

1 Keen Gizmo, SP. Lines 2 and 3 show 139.2 mile time from mid pack.
2 Niigon Express, S 140.0-139.6-138.0 from its last three races from back end of field. Was not competitive in Queens Plate, was reasonable in OC75k/n1x-N. I used only the last two races times for this horse
3 Sine Metu, P, 140.0 and 140.6. Note, not competitive at OC 62 race.
4 Squeeze the King, SP, last race extracts to 135.6 about 4 seconds faster than any of the first three. Keeper.
5 Bid Red Bugsy, P 137.8 off last, won in 3rd start which is OK. Won in state bred MSW, a minor flaw.
6 East Side, P, competitive to 6f in Prince of Wales, but no apparent excuse. Faded noticeably off a reasonable pace and could be distance challenged. 138.0 off its dirt race, 139.2 off its maiden win. No turf line
7 Bangkok, SP, 138.2 off an open MSW race and 140.0 in 10f race while losing to today's favorite Unikat. won its 3rd race this year; trainer thought it was good enough to run in turf stake as 2 YO. I did not consider this horse as major contender. It finished 4th.
8 Ami's Holiday, SP 136.0, 138.5, 138.0 in last three. Placed in all three races, all stakes. Keeper.
9 Smart Spree, On the edge of competitiveness in Prince of Wales, still a maiden, was not competitive in last three maiden races and did not appear to have any excuses. Last race 136.2 was on dirt, after a 137.2 on poly. I was not ready to jump on board with this one, even tho it finished right behind Ami's Holiday in its last. After its lone on the board finish it failed badly next out and did not appear to get better in the two that followed than one. Not for me.
10 Unikat, SP, 139.2 in straight maiden win, a 135.1 from the lead in 2nd back and was on lead in first outing. Do not know what to think about last where vs. really slow fractions it came from last. I used horse but noted that he faded off of a 113.2 internal fraction.
11 Milwaukee Flash, S, still a maiden after 9 tries. several in this field have already beaten this one.
12 Interpol, P, still a maiden, but close from mid pack vs 109.6 and just lost a race timed in 140 for 8.5 furlongs. Many of the horses in this race can't run a mile in 140 or close to it. Mile time is 133.7

My contenders
4 23.2-47.0-111.2-142, positions 7-4-1-1, best mile 135.60

8 48.0-112.0-136.4, 5-6-4-3, 136.00

10 47.3-113.1-202.1, 1-1-1-1, 135.10

12 23.2-46.1-109.3-140.0, 4-3-1-1, 133.70

The best mile time on the lead belongs to the 10, but the 4 and 12 were on the lead at the 6 furlong call in much faster time. I eliminated the 10 because of this. The only proven class was the 8, but I thought that closing ability was a little suspect. In retrospect had I said "the 4 only won a state-bred MSW and the 12 was still a Maiden", I might have played the win end a little smarter.

As it was I boxed the 4-8-10 and played the 10 to win and place. Did not play trifecta. Still a winning outcome
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Old 08-18-2014, 04:56 PM   #7
Bill Lyster
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results and chart
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Old 08-18-2014, 08:28 PM   #8
Bill Lyster
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I meant to say that I boxed the 4x8x12, NOT the 10 and played the 12 to win and place. Also the 4 and 12 closed positions and lengths from the 2nd call to the stretch call in their respective races, both of which were much faster internally than the 10's 113.2 six furlong time in its 2nd race. I thought both had a good chance to overtake the 10 as they straightened for home.

Sorry for the confusing first post.

Bill
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Old 08-18-2014, 09:49 PM   #9
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Great Detailed Marathon Analysis!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
I meant to say that I boxed the 4x8x12, NOT the 10 and played the 12 to win and place. Also the 4 and 12 closed positions and lengths from the 2nd call to the stretch call in their respective races, both of which were much faster internally than the 10's 113.2 six furlong time in its 2nd race. I thought both had a good chance to overtake the 10 as they straightened for home.

Sorry for the confusing first post.

Bill
Bill L.

What can I say, other than another great marathon analysis! Appreciated the line by line paceline details and thoughts.

Keep it going! "Marathon Man"
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