Fg 1/20

[ranchwest]

Graham won his first race back, so hopefully he is good to go.

[DanBoals]

Going to revise my 7th race choices. Hopefully it won't be like my dad used to say, "think long, think wrong".

Race 7 - 7, 8, 4 - 7h / 3 fts

I decided to put the 7 back in, I took him out because I didn't like the idea of betting on a 0% trainer and 0% jockey, but as they say, it's the horse that runs the race, and I like the fact that the horse is improving in his last 3 adj SR.

[DanBoals]

Wow... I really screwed the pooch on races 6 and 7.

Rough day at the FG.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by DanBoals

Going to revise my 7th race choices. Hopefully it won't be like my dad used to say, "think long, think wrong".

Race 7 - 7, 8, 4 - 7h / 3 fts

I decided to put the 7 back in, I took him out because I didn't like the idea of betting on a 0% trainer and 0% jockey, but as they say, it's the horse that runs the race, and I like the fact that the horse is improving in his last 3 adj SR.

I don't factor in the jockey because when those 0'fer jocks win, they sometimes pay big. And, the agents put the best jockeys on the paper best horses anyway.

I remember a female jockey who had not won in over 600 mounts. She got a mount that should have been 1/9, but went off at 5/1. I bet the horse because it was breaking from the outside gate. I figured if she just kept the horse out of trouble on the outside, she should win. At the top of the stretch she was in contention, but every time she tried to use the crop, she would pull the reins sideways. Finally she put away the crop, got up on the neck and the horse blasted away and won.

[ranchwest]

Dan, if I might ask...

In Race 6, #3, Touchdown Joe, which pace line did you select? I am torn by distance, surface, track condition, maiden vs. non-maiden, beaten lengths, etc. I ended up on line 5 as the off-turf line.

[DanBoals]

Hey Ranch,

I really did a poor job on race 6 the first time around.

When I went back and reworked the race, I came up with the following contenders using the following pacelines:

reworked
- 2, 3, 9, 4 - 8h

for 2, I used the last line, he didn't have a dirt route, but did have some decent dirt works, so I felt he had to be included.

for 3, I used his second back, the maiden win. His last two races were both an adjusted SR of 69 and there didn't seem to be any difference between the two. I used the maiden win because he was closer to the pace in that race and I think that gives better results than races where the horse is always back, and might just be dragged along by a fast pace.

for 9, I used his last line. he gained on the leader at every call to eventually finish 3rd. I was not comfortable using a race where the horse was 12 lengths back at first call, especially on a muddy track where early speed seemed advantageous, but I used it anyway.

for 4, I used his last line, but his maiden win 3 back gave the same result. I didn't want to use his G1 race since he was never really in it and it was his best race ever. I try not to use the best race ever unless it was the last race. He had a really good workout a week ago, so I figured he would be better than his last line suggested, but I also thought he would be a low price.


3 win 12.60
3, 4 ex 27.00
3, 4, 2 tri 127.20


Originally I had the 1 and 10 in as contenders, but when I reworked the race, I took them out. The 1 because he hadn't ever raced within 20k of today's purse, he was coming off a 5 month layoff and he showed no previous workouts or races at the FG. All of that together just seemed a lot for a middle of the road young horse to overcome. As for the 10, I ended up taking him out on the rework because he had never run at FG or worked at FG and his last race, was run against painfully slow fractions. Even though RDSS liked the last line, when I really thought about it, no works or races at FG, and the only usable race was against suspiciously slow fractions, I went ahead and pulled him out as well.

I really botched up the sixth race when I originally handicapped it, my mojo wasn't working today

[ranchwest]

My on turf picks would have been 2 3 5 4.

Off turf, 2 4 10 5.

For on turf, I had line 1 for #3. For off turf, I had line 5 based in large part on the distance. But obviously this was a major part of why #3 dropped out of my contenders off turf. I clearly need to rethink my line selection for off turf races. I'm usually better than this, but there are pretty much problems with every line for #3.

For the others, these were my off turf lines:

2: line 4
4: line 2
9: line 3