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01-21-2022, 12:39 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 301
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Fg 1/21
Race 1 - 4, 1, 3, 2 - 7h
Race 2 - 5, 1, 4 , 2 - 5b - PASS Race 3 - 9, 8, 2, 6 - 9h Race 4 - 5, 2, 4, 7 - 8h / 1 fts Race 5 - 3, 8, 7, 4 - 8h Race 6 - 3, 5, 6, 4 - 8b Race 7 - 3, 5, 1, 4 - 7h Race 8 - 2, 4, 9, 1 - 9h Race 9 - 4, 7, 9, 10, 3 - 11h |
01-21-2022, 11:56 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 301
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Updated for scratches
Race 1 - 4, 1, 3, 2 - 7h
Race 2 - 5, 1, 4 , 2 - 5b - PASS Race 3 - 9, 8, 2, 6 - 9h Race 4 - 5, 2, 4, 7 - 8h / 1 fts Race 5 - 3, 8, 7, 4 - 6h - probable pass, only 6 horses Race 6 - 3, 5, 6, 4 - 8b Race 7 - 3, 5, 1, 4 - 5h - PASS Race 8 - 2, 4, 9, 1 - 9h Race 9 - 4, 7, 9, 3 - 11h in the 9th I was hoping one of my picks would scratch so I would not have to choose, but no such luck... I removed the 10 for really poor first and second call times/beaten lengths. I think this will be a competitive race and he will just be too far back to catch the winners. |
01-21-2022, 12:03 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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In R9, I have 10 5 8 3. You can probably be safe betting against those. I miss on a lot of last races... you know, the one where the horizontals pay out. lol
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01-21-2022, 12:09 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
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Good luck Dan.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
01-21-2022, 12:37 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Watch R6. 2B & 8 are listed as MTO. There's no indication of being off turf and there's no indication of these two horses being scratched.
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01-21-2022, 01:55 PM | #6 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 301
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Quote:
Not much has changed over the last 40 years, it still seems to be the most difficult race of the day to handicap. On the plus side, we both seem to like the 3, here is to the 3 at long odds. |
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01-21-2022, 02:24 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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I think part of the last race thing is that racing secretaries seem to intentionally card it as a difficult race.
In my early handicapping days, I lived near Delta Downs. The last race was often a route non-winners over time 2k claimer. And, there were definitely shenanigans. Ever hear of the fog jockey? And, of course, jockeys never talk to the public. One night, every jockey told the few people still hanging on the rail for the last race to bet the 4. Well, I had been there long enough to know the 4 was not going to win. I ran to the window and bet another horse. My horse didn't win, but the 4 is still looking for the wire. |
01-21-2022, 04:22 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 125
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Hope you didn’t pass race 5, nice no sweat $16 winner and exa with Fav. Tri if you go that dep on a 3-1 shot.
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01-21-2022, 04:57 PM | #9 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 301
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Quote:
Normally, I pass every race with 5 horses or less. For 6 horse races, I have to have 2 qualified bets with one at 8-1 or higher, in this case, when I chose my bets, the 3 was 9-1 and the 8 was 3-1, so I marked it as a bet. I have been out of the game since 2016, so I am just betting on paper for now, at least until I get back myself back to even. Once I can show myself that I am back in form and am making a paper profit, even a small one, I will be heading down to the Atlantis a couple days a week. |
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01-21-2022, 05:31 PM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 301
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My dad always told me with handicapping, "think long, think wrong"...
I know, I know, but the more I look at Race 8, the more uncertain I am, but, going to change my picks Race 8 - 7, 9, 6, 3 - 7h |
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