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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-04-2021, 11:39 AM   #11
buffaloxp
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use Tim SC model horse 4,7,5,2,8 is under 3.5 so is my win contender , my BLBL top 4 is 7,4,5,2, i will use VDC top 2 is my pick,7 have a class edge

my bet is 7,4 to win, good luck to all reply

thank you
raymond
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Old 08-04-2021, 12:47 PM   #12
Bill Lyster
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In a paceless race only the 2 and 4 have won while leading at half or 3/4. Unless the pace is really slow, these are my two final contenders with the 7 or 8 possibly good enough for place, etc.

Bill
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Old 08-04-2021, 01:17 PM   #13
ranchwest
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My selection is #2.

My exacta plays are 2 / 6,7

#9 is scratched.
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Old 08-04-2021, 01:47 PM   #14
ranchwest
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Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Attachment 49838

In a paceless race only the 2 and 4 have won while leading at half or 3/4. Unless the pace is really slow, these are my two final contenders with the 7 or 8 possibly good enough for place, etc.

Bill
I am trying to learn about pace line selection. I understand some of your selections, some I do not. So, I would like to focus in on one horse specifically to maybe help me understand your process.

#7, you chose line 6. There are 4 lines before that which are near today's distance, same track, same surface, all fast, no discernable variant issue. Can you share what took you down to line 6? I show it as a similar class to today... did that factor in?
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Old 08-04-2021, 02:06 PM   #15
Lt1
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Here is my look
#1 L8
#2 L1
#3 NO LINE NON CONTENDER WOULD USE L4]
#4 L1
#5 NO LINE NON CONTENDER[WOULD USE L3]
#6 L5
#7 L3
#8 L3
#10 NO LINE NON CONTENDEER[WOULD USE L4]
#11 NO LINE NON CONTENDER [ WOULD USE L3]
Tim
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Old 08-04-2021, 03:32 PM   #16
Bill Lyster
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In the early late graph notice that most of the races are from -7.0 - -13.30, so lines 1-2-5-9 are out for me, then take out the off track lines 7 and 8. This horse is a 6 YO and they rarely repeat their bests. so line 3 is out...Use either line 4 or 6.

See my original screen and see that the 6 does not have all four of the critical factors, being 1-5-5-X, so he is out for win. He might close strongly and could get place. But who knows?

I like the 2 and 4 to win.
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Old 08-04-2021, 04:14 PM   #17
ranchwest
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Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
Attachment 49839

In the early late graph notice that most of the races are from -7.0 - -13.30, so lines 1-2-5-9 are out for me, then take out the off track lines 7 and 8. This horse is a 6 YO and they rarely repeat their bests. so line 3 is out...Use either line 4 or 6.

See my original screen and see that the 6 does not have all four of the critical factors, being 1-5-5-X, so he is out for win. He might close strongly and could get place. But who knows?

I like the 2 and 4 to win.
Thanks, Bill. I asked about the 7, but your response tells me a lot about your process. Thank you for taking the time to provide your reply! I appreciate it!
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Old 08-04-2021, 04:50 PM   #18
Bill Lyster
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OH Boy, my bad, see here is my view of the seven (7).

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Old 08-04-2021, 05:08 PM   #19
raceman5
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Prx

Race 11. 4-7-8
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Old 08-04-2021, 05:20 PM   #20
Bill Lyster
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OH Boy, my bad, see here is my view of the seven (7).

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E/L graph shows -6.7 to -1.5, so that eliminates lines 5 (sprint)-7 (off)-9-10. The 8 line is really low, but he did win, but it shows how slow the pace has to be for this horse to be competitive (E/L = 161.5, BTW). Another horse older than 4, and line 4 does not show up any where else, either by adjusted SR or total energy - and against a really fast variant that I chose not to compare to anyone else (note too that its not a tandem with anyone else entered in that particular line). So that leaves lines 1-2-3-6.

I don't trust high variants in either direction so unless everyone is within a few variant points I won't use the line. For me the line 1 and 3 are out, leaving lines 2 and 6. Guess what, almost the same total energy and the E/L's are close. It looks like this horse runs the same against fast paces and slower ones, e.g. 80.9+87.6= 168.5 and 82.5+85.5=168.0. So you could use either line. I have found this not to be that rare, especially in the case of Sustained horses that are at the mercy of who does what on the front end. If its too fast, they have a chance to catch up. The run the same race and hope for a pace collapse.

I could use a high variant race if the TE is similar to a variant closer to "0". The 7 was my third horse but both the 7 and 4 ran against slow internal fractions. I just think the 2 should have a lot in reserve if that pace develops or walks all over them if it assumes the lead mid way through the race.
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