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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-10-2021, 02:53 PM   #1
rdiam
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
IND 8/10/21 r7

Let's take a look at IND r7 for 8/10/21, post time 5:31 pm EDT, a 5f sprint on the turf:

First, pace line selection and comments/observations:

1 -- Line 1 (july 7): only third race lifetime, second race after layoff, part of a fast early pace, but probably too slow in this

2 -- Line 2 (may 27): first start on turf, jockey change, good recent works, big class drop, first race after 62 day layoff, but seems in good form, likely part of fast pace today

3 -- Line 1 (july 20): last race was only one on turf so far, but her best

4 -- Line 1 (june 22): switching from dirt to turf, has top jock in this field, first after 49 day layoff, third after claim, part of fast pace today, but has never passed a horse in the stretch

5 -- Line 1 (july 20): top closer who may benefit from fast pace, but switches to poor apprentice jock, tends to hang in the stretch

6 -- try Line 1 (july 22) and Line 2 (june 23): has top trainer and a hot trainer/jock combo, part of fast pace today, big rise in purse today

7 -- Line 1 (july 12): been working well, but first time on turf, second after layoff, seems in good form

8 -- try Line 1 (july 20) and Line 4 (may 12): part of fast pace today, has never passed a horse in stretch, poor trainer stats, but pattern projects a new top today

Main win contenders: 3,8,4,2

Bet structure: win bet 3, ex 8/2,3,4,5,7, ex 2/3,4,6,7,8...going to leave 4 off my ticket, if want to include would use ex 4/2,3,6,8

Good luck

Richard
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Old 08-10-2021, 05:34 PM   #2
rdiam
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Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
Results:

3-2-8-1-6, a $2 win bet on the 3 paid $5.00 (7 was a late scratch)

Seems that others saw this horse preferred the turf last out, and was in form and ready to make a forward move. Like Mitch44 and Lt1 like to say, we can't control the price.

Richard
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