Saturday's Belmont Stakes - Pace and Cap

omar · 06-09-2022, 11:44 PM

First off, one has to take the #'s into context with the model and then alone. Looking at the PC #'s, none of these horses has run lower than a 108.44[ #8 ]. I sorted the screen shot by F3 col. I know from the model that F3 was the lowest #, while all the other cols. were about even. The first thing I notice about the #'s 6-8-4 is their F2 #'s are disproportionally higher than their other #'s and they all have a %E higher than 51%.
Next look at my Handicapping model and then the Results model. The results model is BACKWARD looking, meaning it's how the winners at 1-1/2 miles ran and what the fps #'s display for the winners. The Handicapping model is FORWARD looking, meaning it's what the fps #'s characterize for horses that won the Belmont before the fact. Below you can compare the two models. I took out Commendable because his #'s were so out of line with the rest of the horses. His %Med was 2+ points higher than the 2nd highest. Looking at this years contenders and comparing them to the 2 models, I'm making the 1-3-5 my main contenders but I give a long chance to the #2 horse. Of course the #1 will be a short price so I'll be pulling for the 2-3-5. based on the TPR #'s the #5 should have an edge. I felt Rich Strike was a contender going into the Derby. He had to run better than the 176 and he did, a 179, but still has not broken the 180's barrier yet. So that's a knock against him. Even the #2 in his last race did a 181.
As far as the #7 is concerned I think he's way over classed based on his drumming by the #1 who by the way got trounced by some of these horses back at Oaklawn, another reason you should not chase a short price on him. The #3 hasn't posted a TPR # in the 180's either, but a little progression on her and a regression on the 5 or 1 and the race could be up for grabs.
Well that's my take on this years race. You can see the pacelines I used by the TPR #'s I posted for each horse. I felt Amer. Ph. was eased in the Preakness and saved for the Belmont, so I used his Derby #'s. Also you can check the dates on the FPS screen shot for the pacelines I chose. Let us hope a wet track doesn't help the chalk.
Omar

http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654832483

http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654832483

http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654832483

http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654832483

http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654832483

omar · 06-10-2022, 02:51 AM

In case you're wondering why I didn't use the #2's last race - I felt he wasn't competitive during the race. His fps #'s were basically the same. His only path to winning this race is either the #1 doesn't push him early enough and/or the #'s 5-3-6 don't close on him. These horses beat him in his last 2 races.

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06-09-2022, 11:44 PM	#1
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 377	Saturday's Belmont Stakes First off, one has to take the #'s into context with the model and then alone. Looking at the PC #'s, none of these horses has run lower than a 108.44[ #8 ]. I sorted the screen shot by F3 col. I know from the model that F3 was the lowest #, while all the other cols. were about even. The first thing I notice about the #'s 6-8-4 is their F2 #'s are disproportionally higher than their other #'s and they all have a %E higher than 51%. Next look at my Handicapping model and then the Results model. The results model is BACKWARD looking, meaning it's how the winners at 1-1/2 miles ran and what the fps #'s display for the winners. The Handicapping model is FORWARD looking, meaning it's what the fps #'s characterize for horses that won the Belmont before the fact. Below you can compare the two models. I took out Commendable because his #'s were so out of line with the rest of the horses. His %Med was 2+ points higher than the 2nd highest. Looking at this years contenders and comparing them to the 2 models, I'm making the 1-3-5 my main contenders but I give a long chance to the #2 horse. Of course the #1 will be a short price so I'll be pulling for the 2-3-5. based on the TPR #'s the #5 should have an edge. I felt Rich Strike was a contender going into the Derby. He had to run better than the 176 and he did, a 179, but still has not broken the 180's barrier yet. So that's a knock against him. Even the #2 in his last race did a 181. As far as the #7 is concerned I think he's way over classed based on his drumming by the #1 who by the way got trounced by some of these horses back at Oaklawn, another reason you should not chase a short price on him. The #3 hasn't posted a TPR # in the 180's either, but a little progression on her and a regression on the 5 or 1 and the race could be up for grabs. Well that's my take on this years race. You can see the pacelines I used by the TPR #'s I posted for each horse. I felt Amer. Ph. was eased in the Preakness and saved for the Belmont, so I used his Derby #'s. Also you can check the dates on the FPS screen shot for the pacelines I chose. Let us hope a wet track doesn't help the chalk. Omar http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654832483 http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654832483 http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654832483 http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654832483 http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654832483 Attached Images Last edited by omar; 06-09-2022 at 11:57 PM.

06-10-2022, 02:51 AM	#2
omar Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 377	In case you're wondering why I didn't use the #2's last race - I felt he wasn't competitive during the race. His fps #'s were basically the same. His only path to winning this race is either the #1 doesn't push him early enough and/or the #'s 5-3-6 don't close on him. These horses beat him in his last 2 races. http://paceandcap.com/forums/attachm...1&d=1654843845 Attached Images Last edited by omar; 06-10-2022 at 02:57 AM.