Bel 6/11 - Belmont Stakes - Page 2 - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 06-11-2022, 05:54 PM

My picks today were based on the Hat's Marathon Method.

RACE 5 : MY PICKS 5-2-7, WON BY THE 7

RACE 10: PICKS 9-4-7, WON BY THE 7 WITH THE 4 2ND.

RACE 11: PICKS 1-6-3, TO BE DETERMINED, BUT ALIVE IN DOUBLES.

darmar · 06-11-2022, 07:10 PM

Congrats Ted for the RDSS screenshots. They sure had this one figured out
Darryl

MJS6916 · 06-11-2022, 07:51 PM

yup.

The RX screen and Todd Pletcher had the Belmont Stakes covered.

MJS6916 · 06-11-2022, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

My picks today were based on the Hat's Marathon Method.

RACE 5 : MY PICKS 5-2-7, WON BY THE 7

RACE 10: PICKS 9-4-7, WON BY THE 7 WITH THE 4 2ND.

RACE 11: PICKS 1-6-3, TO BE DETERMINED, BUT ALIVE IN DOUBLES.

good job Bill L

Ted Craven · 06-11-2022, 08:59 PM

Everyone in this Thread had the Winner in their Top 3 and by different methods! Getting the Place horse Top 3 #3 Nest was the prize, compared to the betting public who only had her 4th.

Well done all!

Ted

raceman5 · 06-12-2022, 03:08 PM

job Bill, maybe when u get some time you can give a crash course in the Hat's marathon method.

bob

Bill Lyster · 06-12-2022, 04:13 PM

Raceman, you can use the Search tool and just plug in Marathon Method to see all of the instruction. I have copied a few posts from 2007 just to get you started.

Richie Pizzicara posted this 15 years ago, and it is still good today.

1) We are going to work TODAY'S race as if the distance is 8f. We are going to adjust the pp lines for the horses to make them all 8f to match today's virtual distance.

Do NOT adjust the pace calls of the races. Only the final times please.

2) We are going to use 6.2 seconds (in fifths) to adjust each 1/2 furlong on pacelines to get them to the 8f distance.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 8.5f and the final time 1:42 subtract 6.2 seconds to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.3 for the 8f.

For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 9f and the final time is 1:48 subtract 6.2 seconds TWICE or 12.4 to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.1.

3) We are going to use the stretch call of the marathon distance races in the pp's which is 8f. We will stop those marathon races THERE.

4) Once we do the above we are then going to use POSITIONING and pace of race and Matchup the horses to find the horse that will be leading at 8f.

THAT is the horse we will bet.

** Important**
I would strongly suggest going back and reading and re reading the POSITIONING post in the 8 month update thread. THIS is vital to work these races and a clear understanding of POSITIONING is needed.

Take your time. Equalize some pacelines. Go SLOW and find the FAST horse at the mile who ALSO is closest POSITIONALLY to the lead during the race.

THIS is Jim Bradshaw's method of working marathon distance races.

Jim's thinking in these long races is that to WIN a horse has to have taken control of the race at the mile mark.

He feels there has been most of the energy exerted by the field at that stage and for someone to overcome a bunch of horses AFTER the mile mark is just too difficult to do with the horses energy having been depleted by that stage.

So he started stopping and picking the winner at the 8f point of the races. It's amazing in it's basic SIMPLICITY and POWER in my opinion.

After reading Richie's post about the method, I heard this on the local racing weekend show in March 2007.
Amazing timing for this info. Today ( 10 years ago in March 2007) on the local racing program the SoCal announcer came out with these stats.

The last 31 Big Caps - 1-1/4 mil - were won by horses that were first or second at the stretch call (i.e. the mile).

41 out of the last 44 Kentucky Derbys (these nos. may be slightly off, it took awhile to put the info into reference) were won by horses that were first or second at the mile call, with Grindstone 4th and Giamcomo 6th - forgot the 3rd non conformer.

In light of subject matter of this post, I thought this was an amazing sets of stats.

Just a clarification, use the mile time in the PPs if its shown. Do not calculate any horses time based on lengths back. You will need to adjust final times of any race without a mile call time in the PPs.

Bill Lyster · 06-14-2022, 01:00 PM

I've found that you should not use times from mile races because they are too short, so anything from 8.5 furlongs and longer. I suppose you could use 8.3 f races, with appropriate adjustments to get back to a mile time, but I rarely do.

So from race 5 on Saturday the best mile times and positions from the entrants:

1 137.8; 4-4-2
2 135.9; 2-2-2
3 136.1; 5-4-3 (6.1 back at mile)
4 135.3; 7-6-4 (but 5.5 back in 4th at the mile)
5 135.0; 1-1-1
6 136.7; 5-3-4 (4.6 back in 4th
also 137.1; 4-3-2
7 135.8; 5-1-1

So the two fastest at the mile were the 5 and 7 with the 2 close behind, but both the 5 and 7 were in the lead at the mile call.

Belmont:
1 135.6; 1-1-1
2 135.6; 6-6-6 (6.6 back) or 136.8 4-4-1 - slower race,
3 136.5; 6-4-3
4 135.9; 11-11-5
5 135.6; 5-3-4 or 136.0; 4-4-2
6 135.6; 8-6-2
7 135.6; 5-5-3
8 137.2; 8-5-3 (4 back)

At the mile the 1, 3, 6 and 7 were top three, looked like lone speed for the 1; 3 closing 4-3 losing 1.4 L in the process; 6 closing 6-2 making up 2.5 L. 7 was 8 L back at mile having lost 5 since 2nd call.

Lots of horses coming from 135.6 mile races, chose closer and leader, did not see early pace pressure vs. 1 horse. RDSS had top three pretty easy here.

Race 10 10F turf.
I went back a week to see turf course times. Most routes were run in 113 of 114 or slower, but the sprints had 110 six furlong times often enough, so the best horse that could run that time happened to be the winner. If the ground could not prevent an faster early time, the early horse might do well.

Especially in races of this class I used best ever times at the mile split. they would not be ready to run at this grade, IMHO, so I used them.

1 136.3; 5-5-1, closing 2.6 to the lead
2 137.4; 7-6-2, closing 5 back to 1 back
3 141.0; 9-8-6
4 137.9; 7-6-5, closing 7 to 4.2
5 137.5; 2-2-1
6 137.6; 2-2-1
7 135.5 and 134.5; 1-1-1 and 1-1-1
8 138.6; 2-2-1
9 137.0; 6-6-4, losing 3.1 to 4 while passing some and 137.7, running 2-2-2, closing 2 to 1 back;
10 136.7; 3-3-2, gaining 4.5 to 1.5

best mile is 7, then the 1, then the 10, but I went with the 4 and 9. The best reason I can give now is that they were in a tandem at CD in a grade 1 in their last race.

06-11-2022, 07:51 PM	#13
MJS6916 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 324	yup. The RX screen and Todd Pletcher had the Belmont Stakes covered. __________________ just keeping my trajectory in the positive http://sartinmethodology.com/pubs/RD...d_Glossary.pdf

06-11-2022, 08:59 PM	#15
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 8,853	Everyone in this Thread had the Winner in their Top 3 and by different methods! Getting the Place horse Top 3 #3 Nest was the prize, compared to the betting public who only had her 4th. Well done all! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™

06-12-2022, 03:08 PM	#16
raceman5 Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Largo Fl. Posts: 2,295	Super job Bill, maybe when u get some time you can give a crash course in the Hat's marathon method. bob

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06-11-2022, 05:54 PM	#11
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	My picks today were based on the Hat's Marathon Method. RACE 5 : MY PICKS 5-2-7, WON BY THE 7 RACE 10: PICKS 9-4-7, WON BY THE 7 WITH THE 4 2ND. RACE 11: PICKS 1-6-3, TO BE DETERMINED, BUT ALIVE IN DOUBLES.

06-11-2022, 07:10 PM	#12
darmar Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2013 Location: Maple Ridge, B.C. Canada Posts: 3,162	Congrats Ted for the RDSS screenshots. They sure had this one figured out Darryl

06-12-2022, 04:13 PM	#17
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Raceman, you can use the Search tool and just plug in Marathon Method to see all of the instruction. I have copied a few posts from 2007 just to get you started. Richie Pizzicara posted this 15 years ago, and it is still good today. 1) We are going to work TODAY'S race as if the distance is 8f. We are going to adjust the pp lines for the horses to make them all 8f to match today's virtual distance. Do NOT adjust the pace calls of the races. Only the final times please. 2) We are going to use 6.2 seconds (in fifths) to adjust each 1/2 furlong on pacelines to get them to the 8f distance. For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 8.5f and the final time 1:42 subtract 6.2 seconds to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.3 for the 8f. For example if the pp line you are looking at is from 9f and the final time is 1:48 subtract 6.2 seconds TWICE or 12.4 to get an adjusted race time of 1:35.1. 3) We are going to use the stretch call of the marathon distance races in the pp's which is 8f. We will stop those marathon races THERE. 4) Once we do the above we are then going to use POSITIONING and pace of race and Matchup the horses to find the horse that will be leading at 8f. THAT is the horse we will bet. Important I would strongly suggest going back and reading and re reading the POSITIONING post in the 8 month update thread. THIS is vital to work these races and a clear understanding of POSITIONING is needed. Take your time. Equalize some pacelines. Go SLOW and find the FAST horse at the mile who ALSO is closest POSITIONALLY to the lead during the race. THIS is Jim Bradshaw's method of working marathon distance races. Jim's thinking in these long races is that to WIN a horse has to have taken control of the race at the mile mark. He feels there has been most of the energy exerted by the field at that stage and for someone to overcome a bunch of horses AFTER the mile mark is just too difficult to do with the horses energy having been depleted by that stage. So he started stopping and picking the winner at the 8f point of the races. It's amazing in it's basic SIMPLICITY and POWER in my opinion. After reading Richie's post about the method, I heard this on the local racing weekend show in March 2007. Amazing timing for this info. Today ( 10 years ago in March 2007) on the local racing program the SoCal announcer came out with these stats. The last 31 Big Caps - 1-1/4 mil - were won by horses that were first or second at the stretch call (i.e. the mile). 41 out of the last 44 Kentucky Derbys (these nos. may be slightly off, it took awhile to put the info into reference) were won by horses that were first or second at the mile call, with Grindstone 4th and Giamcomo 6th - forgot the 3rd non conformer. In light of subject matter of this post, I thought this was an amazing sets of stats. Just a clarification, use the mile time in the PPs if its shown. Do not calculate any horses time based on lengths back. You will need to adjust final times of any race without a mile call time in the PPs.

06-14-2022, 01:00 PM	#18
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	I've found that you should not use times from mile races because they are too short, so anything from 8.5 furlongs and longer. I suppose you could use 8.3 f races, with appropriate adjustments to get back to a mile time, but I rarely do. So from race 5 on Saturday the best mile times and positions from the entrants: 1 137.8; 4-4-2 2 135.9; 2-2-2 3 136.1; 5-4-3 (6.1 back at mile) 4 135.3; 7-6-4 (but 5.5 back in 4th at the mile) 5 135.0; 1-1-1 6 136.7; 5-3-4 (4.6 back in 4th also 137.1; 4-3-2 7 135.8; 5-1-1 So the two fastest at the mile were the 5 and 7 with the 2 close behind, but both the 5 and 7 were in the lead at the mile call. Belmont: 1 135.6; 1-1-1 2 135.6; 6-6-6 (6.6 back) or 136.8 4-4-1 - slower race, 3 136.5; 6-4-3 4 135.9; 11-11-5 5 135.6; 5-3-4 or 136.0; 4-4-2 6 135.6; 8-6-2 7 135.6; 5-5-3 8 137.2; 8-5-3 (4 back) At the mile the 1, 3, 6 and 7 were top three, looked like lone speed for the 1; 3 closing 4-3 losing 1.4 L in the process; 6 closing 6-2 making up 2.5 L. 7 was 8 L back at mile having lost 5 since 2nd call. Lots of horses coming from 135.6 mile races, chose closer and leader, did not see early pace pressure vs. 1 horse. RDSS had top three pretty easy here. Race 10 10F turf. I went back a week to see turf course times. Most routes were run in 113 of 114 or slower, but the sprints had 110 six furlong times often enough, so the best horse that could run that time happened to be the winner. If the ground could not prevent an faster early time, the early horse might do well. Especially in races of this class I used best ever times at the mile split. they would not be ready to run at this grade, IMHO, so I used them. 1 136.3; 5-5-1, closing 2.6 to the lead 2 137.4; 7-6-2, closing 5 back to 1 back 3 141.0; 9-8-6 4 137.9; 7-6-5, closing 7 to 4.2 5 137.5; 2-2-1 6 137.6; 2-2-1 7 135.5 and 134.5; 1-1-1 and 1-1-1 8 138.6; 2-2-1 9 137.0; 6-6-4, losing 3.1 to 4 while passing some and 137.7, running 2-2-2, closing 2 to 1 back; 10 136.7; 3-3-2, gaining 4.5 to 1.5 best mile is 7, then the 1, then the 10, but I went with the 4 and 9. The best reason I can give now is that they were in a tandem at CD in a grade 1 in their last race.