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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

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Old 09-24-2021, 12:44 PM   #21
Mitch44
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1 retired,

On your Excel sheet I think you'll find it helpful and more insightful to put a + or - next to the difference.

Mitch44
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Old 09-24-2021, 10:23 PM   #22
1retired
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A Couple of Old TPR Threads

Sorry Guys,

I used the old version of the spreadsheet. Here is the new version with the Belmont Park race of Palace Malice added.
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Old 09-24-2021, 10:25 PM   #23
1retired
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A couple of old TPR threads

Sorry guys,

It's tough learning these new skills with this website for me. Finally, here is the spreadsheet with Palace Malice's Belmont Park Belmont Stakes races added.
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx E-L DIFF GRAPH SPOT PLAY ANGLE (1).xlsx (9.8 KB, 578 views)
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Old 09-25-2021, 06:29 PM   #24
1retired
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Pace Makes The Race - TPR

TTwo more races to add to the database. The first is a MSW 2 5 f race with 4 FTS, none of whom were on the board, so this race was somewhat of a gambple. At odds, of 14-1, I felt it was justified.

The second is a 9f dirt race called the "Maryland Million" a Graded Million dollar Stakes race run at Laurel. The angle horse won a Stakes race at Penn National and was next entered in this race. He finished 4th and missed third place by one length going off at odds of 27.1. This was the first horse that did not at least get on the board with this angle.

I'd like to go back and describe the winning factor more accurately. It is an Early Energy Distribution difference. Most, or. a high portion of the horses energy is distributed in the early part of his race(s).

1 retired
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx E-L DIFF GRAPH SPOT PLAY ANGLE (1) (1).xlsx (10.1 KB, 596 views)
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Old 09-28-2021, 07:14 AM   #25
1retired
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Pace Makes The RACE - TPR

I;ve been playaing around with this angle for some time now. I now have 16 races that meet the requirements of the E/L Difference Spot Play angle as originally outlined by Lueylump on this site. The results are spectacular, to say the least. These results are exactly what Lueylump said would be achie ved, many winners and in the money finishes.

Thirteen (13) horses have won, paying $355.20, a profit of over $20 per pace.
Fourteen (14) horses have placed, paying $160. 80, a profit of over $10 per race.
Fifteen (15) horses have shown, paying out $95.90,profit.

Exactas were unbelievable. There were fourteen (14) gettable exactas among these races, paying out a total of $3522.40.

All of the profits are based on a single 2$ bet.

I definitely do not believe that the results achieved so far are what this spot play angle is capable of. It must be less, maybe quite a bit less. Nonetheless, I think it will turn out to be quite possible that the angle is still very profitable.
I invite you to try the angle in your handicapping, even if you just do it on paper and see what you get. Let me know if you find it profitable, or not.

The angle is simple. When you find one horse in the race which has a significangt E/L difference between the red and gthe blue stick, with the red stick being more, AMa AND, it also has gthe highest EPR in the race, you have at least a win, place, show bet on that horse and you will most likely find that this horse coupled with logical other contenders will hit in the the exacta and trifecta. One last point, the angle horse has the highest Running Style rating in of all the horses in the race, i.e. E8 or E4 or whatever but the highest in the race.

From the results of the 16 races that I have found from surfing this website, the results will be even better oiff if the EPR is at least 5 points higher than all others and the TPR and total energy number for the angle horse are no more than 2 or 3 points less than that rating for the top horse. You can see all this in the 16 horse database.

I know that many of you are against spot play angles, or seem to be. I agree with you, a complete approach to handicaping is best. I ask that you just note when this situation comes up in your handicapping note it, and see what the results are.

Let me know what you get.

Dave
Attached Files
File Type: xlsx E-L DIFF GRAPH SPOT PLAY ANGLE (1) (1).xlsx (11.3 KB, 556 views)
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Old 09-28-2021, 09:21 AM   #26
lone speed
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This past Sunday at Remington Park

Remington Park Oaks
Southern California shipper trained by Peter Eurton

extreme difference in Early/Late
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Old 09-28-2021, 12:12 PM   #27
ranchwest
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1retired View Post
I;ve been playaing around with this angle for some time now. I now have 16 races that meet the requirements of the E/L Difference Spot Play angle as originally outlined by Lueylump on this site. The results are spectacular, to say the least. These results are exactly what Lueylump said would be achie ved, many winners and in the money finishes.

Thirteen (13) horses have won, paying $355.20, a profit of over $20 per pace.
Fourteen (14) horses have placed, paying $160. 80, a profit of over $10 per race.
Fifteen (15) horses have shown, paying out $95.90,profit.

Exactas were unbelievable. There were fourteen (14) gettable exactas among these races, paying out a total of $3522.40.

All of the profits are based on a single 2$ bet.

I definitely do not believe that the results achieved so far are what this spot play angle is capable of. It must be less, maybe quite a bit less. Nonetheless, I think it will turn out to be quite possible that the angle is still very profitable.
I invite you to try the angle in your handicapping, even if you just do it on paper and see what you get. Let me know if you find it profitable, or not.

The angle is simple. When you find one horse in the race which has a significangt E/L difference between the red and gthe blue stick, with the red stick being more, AMa AND, it also has gthe highest EPR in the race, you have at least a win, place, show bet on that horse and you will most likely find that this horse coupled with logical other contenders will hit in the the exacta and trifecta. One last point, the angle horse has the highest Running Style rating in of all the horses in the race, i.e. E8 or E4 or whatever but the highest in the race.

From the results of the 16 races that I have found from surfing this website, the results will be even better oiff if the EPR is at least 5 points higher than all others and the TPR and total energy number for the angle horse are no more than 2 or 3 points less than that rating for the top horse. You can see all this in the 16 horse database.

I know that many of you are against spot play angles, or seem to be. I agree with you, a complete approach to handicaping is best. I ask that you just note when this situation comes up in your handicapping note it, and see what the results are.

Let me know what you get.

Dave
Dave, how are you determining the pace lines?
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Old 09-28-2021, 01:37 PM   #28
1retired
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Pace Makes The Race - TPR

I'm taking it from the information in the workup posted by the people who handicapped the rqdac4w4 races. These are the people listed in the database in the left hand column. Quite a few of them are by FTL. I did not do any of them myseulf. They picked the pacelines and extracted the data from them. Ranchwest, you have me at a disadvantage. What's your first name?.

Davew
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Old 09-28-2021, 01:58 PM   #29
1retired
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Pace Makes the Race - TPR

Lonespeed

Thanks for the info on the Remington race. Unfortunately, I do not yet have RDSS so I can't do the workup on the race and then lookup the El>. E/L dissfference of that horse and the other factors that I am modeling as part of this databsase. I get all my information by surfing this website and using the information provided by other members on the race and horse. If you have this info, if you could give it to me, I'd be grateful.

ON another note, I was reading thru the posts and I think I noticed one where you and partsnut have both read Randy Giles book, "Extreme Pace Handicapping". I'm really interested to know, if you have read the book, if any of his angles are worth incorporating into our/my handicapping using RDSS. I do know that one of the things that he uses heavily is the Running Style designation of the horses in the race. So, have you read the book, and if so, is it worthwhile and does it have any practically application to our handicapping using RDSS?

Dave

?k
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Old 09-28-2021, 01:58 PM   #30
ranchwest
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1retired View Post
I'm taking it from the information in the workup posted by the people who handicapped the rqdac4w4 races. These are the people listed in the database in the left hand column. Quite a few of them are by FTL. I did not do any of them myseulf. They picked the pacelines and extracted the data from them. Ranchwest, you have me at a disadvantage. What's your first name?.

Davew
My first name is Richard. That might put you at a further disadvantage because there are other people named Richard on here. lol Some folks just call me Ranch.
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