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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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05-28-2019, 06:12 AM | #21 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Glad you had a good day Bill and glad they had no accidents. They really went heavy on Gift Box out there and Vino Rossi paid a good price. I think he was rushed as a 3 yr. old and we'll hear from him again.
SA is a beautiful track.Keep hammering them Bill and bask in the great moments this sport gives us. Best of health, Mitch44 |
05-31-2019, 06:03 PM | #22 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Fulcrum Phase 1 race 5 5/31
I expect a decent EPR POR in this small field of fillies going 1 mile on the main
track The 1 is my fulcrum with a 83.5 Here is the last line of the 5 horses The EPRs are nicely bunched, nobody is particularly early or late |
06-01-2019, 06:53 AM | #23 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Reverse
While doing some research on my Santa Anita database, I came upon this race
from Jan31 2019 The horse won the 6 horse placed and the 5 horse showed. What is cool is the position of the remaining 4 horses 7,6,5,4,3,2.1 Just neat stuff I look for Richie P = He's got ENERGY!! |
06-01-2019, 07:34 AM | #24 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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# 3 Zusha a proven router presses the 1 hard all the way to take over in the stretch for the win. His last at 6.5 after a layoff used to sharpen speed and prep for today. Line one of fulcrum just not indicative of fulcrum or distance ability.
Mitch44 |
06-01-2019, 08:43 AM | #25 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Reach
Again you have no idea of what the fulcrum is meant to show
If you keep thinking the fulcrum horses is a rating toward the winner of the race Your hate will keep blinding you. If you don't understand the concept of the fulcrum the why preach against it I dislike fish , said the man in the seafood restaurant |
06-01-2019, 10:35 AM | #26 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 644
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The way the fulcrum was taught by Michael and Bert Mayne at several workshops in Albany ( miss those so much!) was to set up a race, using a logical pace time. After setting the fulcrum, they did form cycle analysis on races within +/- 2/5s of the fulcrum. Races that were faster were excused. That was part of the "wayback" machine.....a horse who met the fulcrum several liknes back and had been facing faster times recently. And the paceline of the fulcrum was not always the line you would use for that horse. It was a starting point. The last line was used to keep it recent, therefore more likely to be useful today.
The fulcrum was not a rating or a bet. It was a tool to use for selecting contenders and pacelines. Mike did advise to always check the fulcrum horse for its ability to wire the field and that enough of them did win regularly to make it worthwhile, but that was the extent of it. Like the energizer in Energy! |
06-01-2019, 07:03 PM | #27 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Fulcrum rolls
Much thanks to Tom, That is an excellent helping post
It is very appreciated. In the 7th race at SA today this is the only qualifying horse The POR fulcrum is only a 70 This does not mean, this horse is a winning choice, just because it is the fulcrum What it shows is the expected pace of race should be rather slow This horse is the fulcrum because it is the only horse in the last line within 1/2 furlongs of today's distance and surface (SA Turf) I am alive in a pick 3 to the 1 6 and 8 |
06-01-2019, 07:16 PM | #28 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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1
I am at the Oceanside casino I am interested to see the fractions
The 1 and 8 run 1-2 and the fulcrum #2 finished 4th my pick 3 pays $131 The table west has another pick 3 going we are alive to the 2,4,5 in race 8 My dad Brooks Has hit the first pick 3 races 123 A 3 horse parlay Races 2,3,5. Race 5,6,7 pick 3. and we are all in on this last pick 3 race 6,7,8 Last edited by Bill V.; 06-01-2019 at 07:19 PM. |
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