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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
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07-31-2021, 01:08 AM | #11 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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07-31-2021, 09:45 AM | #12 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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No it doesn't concern me Ranch. I don't have the % Med and would have to figure them by hand. From a visual don't concern me.
The # 6 horse has steadily improved since adding Blinkers and in L1 appears to have changed it running style. Connections seem to have finally figured this one out. Seems in a new cycle and may keep on improving. The # 9 appears to be very consistent regardless of pace he runs his race. His average speed rating is as good as many in here best SR, therefore he could win this on consistency alone. His best race came off a layoff and has recently been freshened and also been Gelded since last race. Only question is his ability on turf, however he has won on an off track so he can adapt and doesn't need a specific track type. # 10 has been working steady for return and has run well in past against faster paces. Trainer is good off long layoffs and decent on turf. Breeding suggest he'll like turf. This horse obviously had some type of problem but a long enough layoff to fix whatever it was. With the rise in class off the layoff and having to prove turf this one will just have to beat me at 6-1, however his odds should rise based on PP's. He could win at a very nice price. #1 Appears to be main threat, Been freshened and improved with B added. Won against slow pace in last and could run back to top figure. I would expect him to be closer to pace in this one. Mitch44 |
07-31-2021, 10:02 AM | #13 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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I agree with Bill Lister in reference to 7.5 F races on turf, especially if run at GP. They are notorious for inconsistent and crazy run up distances. Even on the same day. One may have a run up dis. of 10 feet and another a run up dis. of 210 feet. It greatly distorts time which is extremely important to a Pace Handicapper. I've written about this before.
They are not to be trusted if using Bris PP for Pace etc. and I refuse to use them when handicapping from Bris alone. However they can be used in RDSS because TrackMaster accounts for all run up distances regardless of track and surface. They are the only one, I know of that does adjust for Run Up distances. The lines I picked were from RDSS PP's that were posted, therefore I wouldn't have a problem using them as they have been adjusted for run up distances. Trust the program. Their fine to use in RDSS and TrackMaster products but never use them in any other product. That said, it still doesn't mean a horse that can run 7.5 F can get the distance of 8.5 F because of deceleration, Match Up and distance limitations. Mitch44 |
07-31-2021, 10:55 AM | #14 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
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07-31-2021, 12:21 PM | #15 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 778
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after 4 scratches, i try all the line your provide,the RDSS program come up HORSE 7,1,5,3
on top 4, i will go with 7 for wp and 7 with 1,3,5 for Qu, thanks for all reply raymond |
07-31-2021, 12:51 PM | #16 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Quote:
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07-31-2021, 03:59 PM | #17 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Double bet with 6 in race 8 to the 1 and 5 in the 9th. Still looking at odds on the 10
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07-31-2021, 04:13 PM | #18 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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My selection is 7.
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07-31-2021, 04:41 PM | #19 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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07-31-2021, 05:07 PM | #20 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Nice DD Bill, congrats.
Mitch44 |
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